| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | David Pearce '23 | 41 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 56 |
| 3 |  |
Webb Institute | Daniel Escudero '24 | 61 |
| 4 |  |
Tulane University | Thad Lettsome '24 | 65 |
| 5 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Charles Carraway '22 | 66 |
| 6 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lucas Sawin '25 | 92 |
| 7 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Will Foox '24 | 106 |
| 8 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Michael Burns '25 | 108 |
| 9 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Pete Mcgriff '24 | 119 |
| 10 | |
Tulane University | Marcus Huttunen '24 | 126 |
| 11 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Spencer Barnes '24 | 134 |
| 12 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lars Osell '24 | 148 |
| 13 |  |
Princeton University | Jasper Waldman '25 | 177 |
| 14 |  |
Columbia University | Leopold Brandl '24 | 186 |
| 15 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Robert Mansuetto '25 | 198 |
| 16 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Ben Hosford '25 | 206 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | David Pearce '23 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | RDG | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 41 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 56 |
|
Webb Institute | Daniel Escudero '24 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | RAF | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 61 |
|
Tulane University | Thad Lettsome '24 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 65 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Charles Carraway '22 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 66 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lucas Sawin '25 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 92 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Will Foox '24 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 106 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Michael Burns '25 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 108 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Pete Mcgriff '24 | 7 | 11 | BKD | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 119 |
|
Tulane University | Marcus Huttunen '24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 126 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Spencer Barnes '24 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 10 | RDG | 10 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 134 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lars Osell '24 | 8 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 148 |
|
Princeton University | Jasper Waldman '25 | 14 | 16 | BKD | 12 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 177 |
|
Columbia University | Leopold Brandl '24 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 11 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 186 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Robert Mansuetto '25 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 198 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Ben Hosford '25 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 206 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Pearce '23 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 | 14/14 | 2.85 | 4.97 | +2.12 | 78th → 99th | 13.8 | 1% | 3.9 / 7.5 |
| 2 | Nicholas Sessions '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 14/14 | 3.44 | 4.20 | +0.76 | 89th → 97th | 2.5 | 10% | 4.0 / 6.1 |
| 3 | Daniel Escudero '24 | Webb Institute | 14/14 | 2.05u | 4.62 | +2.57 | 53rd → 99th | 19.4 | 1% | 4.4 / 9.3 |
| 4 | Thad Lettsome '24 | Tulane University Green Wave 1 | 14/14 | 3.43 | 3.83 | +0.40 | 89th → 94th | 0.7 | 19% | 4.6 / 6.1 |
| 5 | Charles Carraway '22 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 14/14 | 3.94 | 3.68 | −0.26 | 95th → 93rd | 0.3 | 46% | 4.7 / 5.0 |
| 6 | Lucas Sawin '25 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 | 14/14 | 2.57 | 3.26 | +0.69 | 67th → 86th | 2.2 | 20% | 6.6 / 8.1 |
| 7 | Will Foox '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 | 14/14 | 2.68 | 2.77 | +0.10 | 71st → 74th | 0.0 | 46% | 7.6 / 7.9 |
| 8 | Michael Burns '25 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 | 14/14 | 2.99 | 2.57 | −0.41 | 81st → 67th | 0.9 | 65% | 7.7 / 7.1 |
| 9 | Marcus Huttunen '24 | Tulane University Green Wave 2 | 14/14 | 2.83 | 1.62 | −1.21 | 77th → 40th | 7.5 | 80% | 9.0 / 7.5 |
| 10 | Pete Mcgriff '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 14/14 | 2.13 | 2.32 | +0.19 | 56th → 60th | 0.2 | 48% | 9.1 / 9.2 |
| 11 | Spencer Barnes '24 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 | 14/14 | 2.65 | 2.21 | −0.43 | 70th → 58th | 1.0 | 89% | 10.1 / 7.9 |
| 12 | Lars Osell '24 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 | 14/14 | 1.76 | 1.92 | +0.16 | 43rd → 48th | 0.1 | 59% | 10.6 / 10.0 |
| 13 | Jasper Waldman '25 | Princeton University | 14/14 | 1.38 | 1.04 | −0.34 | 33rd → 24th | 0.5 | 85% | 12.9 / 10.7 |
| 14 | Leopold Brandl '24 | Columbia University | 14/14 | 1.98 | 1.60 | −0.37 | 51st → 40th | 0.6 | 97% | 13.3 / 9.5 |
| 15 | Robert Mansuetto '25 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 | 14/14 | 0.75 | 0.36 | −0.39 | 18th → 11th | 0.6 | 88% | 14.1 / 12.1 |
| 16 | Ben Hosford '25 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 | 14/14 | 0.88 | -0.01 | −0.89 | 21st → 6th | 3.3 | 96% | 14.7 / 11.8 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
