| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Leo Boucher '22 | 40 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Charles Carraway '22 | 67 |
| 3 |  |
University of Miami | Richard Mccann '23 | 72 |
| 4 |  |
Georgetown University | Thomas Mccann '22 | 84 |
| 5 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 88 |
| 6 |  |
Brown University | Connor Nelson '24 | 94 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Nicholas Reeser '25 | 119 |
| 8 |  |
Hampton University | Valerio Palamara '24 | 121 |
| 9 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Gavin Mcjones '23 | 129 |
| 10 | |
Georgetown University | Diego Escobar '25 | 142 |
| 11 |  |
Tulane University | Thad Lettsome '24 | 153 |
| 12 |  |
Yale University | Nicholas Davies '24 | 154 |
| 13 | |
Brown University | Leyton Borcherding '25 | 166 |
| 14 |  |
George Washington University | Cameron Feves '22 | 171 |
| 15 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | David Pearce '23 | 173 |
| 16 | |
Tulane University | Marcus Huttunen '24 | 184 |
| 17 |  |
Stanford University | John Kirkpatrick '22 | 187 |
| 18 |  |
Miami University | Ryan Squires '22 | 250 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Leo Boucher '22 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 40 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Charles Carraway '22 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 67 |
|
University of Miami | Richard Mccann '23 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 72 |
|
Georgetown University | Thomas Mccann '22 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 84 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 88 |
|
Brown University | Connor Nelson '24 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 13 | BKD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 94 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Nicholas Reeser '25 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 119 |
|
Hampton University | Valerio Palamara '24 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 8 | DNF | 121 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Gavin Mcjones '23 | 13 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 129 |
|
Georgetown University | Diego Escobar '25 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 142 |
|
Tulane University | Thad Lettsome '24 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 153 |
|
Yale University | Nicholas Davies '24 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 154 |
|
Brown University | Leyton Borcherding '25 | 9 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 166 |
|
George Washington University | Cameron Feves '22 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 171 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | David Pearce '23 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 13 | 173 |
|
Tulane University | Marcus Huttunen '24 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 184 |
|
Stanford University | John Kirkpatrick '22 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 187 |
|
Miami University | Ryan Squires '22 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 250 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leo Boucher '22 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 14/14 | 4.63 | 6.04 | +1.41 | 99th → 99th | 7.2 | 1% | 2.9 / 6.2 |
| 2 | Charles Carraway '22 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 14/14 | 4.06 | 4.84 | +0.77 | 95th → 99th | 2.6 | 6% | 4.8 / 7.6 |
| 3 | Richard Mccann '23 | University of Miami | 14/14 | 3.78 | 4.79 | +1.01 | 94th → 99th | 4.4 | 5% | 5.1 / 8.4 |
| 4 | Thomas Mccann '22 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 14/14 | 4.00 | 4.43 | +0.42 | 95th → 98th | 0.9 | 20% | 6.0 / 7.9 |
| 5 | Nicholas Sessions '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 14/14 | 3.76 | 4.27 | +0.51 | 93rd → 98th | 1.2 | 15% | 6.3 / 8.5 |
| 6 | Connor Nelson '24 | Brown University Bears 2 | 14/14 | 3.76 | 4.04 | +0.28 | 93rd → 95th | 0.4 | 35% | 7.6 / 8.5 |
| 7 | Nicholas Reeser '25 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 14/14 | 3.67 | 3.73 | +0.06 | 93rd → 93rd | 0.0 | 47% | 8.5 / 8.7 |
| 8 | Valerio Palamara '24 | Hampton University | 14/14 | 3.28 | 3.91 | +0.64 | 86th → 95th | 1.8 | 30% | 8.6 / 9.8 |
| 9 | Gavin Mcjones '23 | U. S. Naval Academy | 14/14 | 3.50 | 3.43 | −0.07 | 90th → 89th | 0.0 | 52% | 9.2 / 9.2 |
| 10 | Diego Escobar '25 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 14/14 | 3.19 | 3.38 | +0.20 | 85th → 89th | 0.2 | 52% | 10.1 / 10.1 |
| 11 | Thad Lettsome '24 | Tulane University Green Wave 2 | 14/14 | 3.57 | 2.99 | −0.58 | 92nd → 82nd | 2.0 | 81% | 10.9 / 9.1 |
| 12 | Nicholas Davies '24 | Yale University | 14/14 | 3.35 | 3.01 | −0.33 | 89th → 83rd | 0.6 | 76% | 11.0 / 9.6 |
| 13 | Leyton Borcherding '25 | Brown University Bears 1 | 14/14 | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 | 69th → 69th | 0.0 | 53% | 11.9 / 11.6 |
| 14 | Cameron Feves '22 | George Washington University | 14/14 | 3.32 | 2.83 | −0.49 | 88th → 77th | 1.5 | 87% | 12.2 / 9.7 |
| 15 | David Pearce '23 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 14/14 | 3.12 | 2.74 | −0.38 | 84th → 73rd | 0.8 | 83% | 12.4 / 10.3 |
| 16 | Marcus Huttunen '24 | Tulane University Green Wave 1 | 14/14 | 2.93 | 2.33 | −0.59 | 79th → 60th | 2.0 | 87% | 13.1 / 10.8 |
| 17 | John Kirkpatrick '22 | Stanford University | 14/14 | 2.85 | 2.65 | −0.20 | 78th → 70th | 0.2 | 88% | 13.4 / 11.0 |
| 18 | Ryan Squires '22 | Miami University | 14/14 | 1.42 | -1.65 | −3.07 | 34th → 1st | 11.0 | >99% | 17.9 / 14.2 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
