2021 SAISA-MAISA SailPack Women's Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 28 23 51
2 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 74 53 127
3 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 78 76 154
4 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 70 87 157
5 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 72 99 171
6 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 97 80 177
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 6 3 1 28 Olivia Sowa '24 [1-20]
Josey Buescher '22 [1-6, 12-14]
Magnolia Smith '25 [7-11]
Abby Scudder '24 [15-20]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 3 4 3 2 4 5 DNS 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 5 4 4 2 70 Julianna Skoglund '23
Chloe Beach '24
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 4 5 2 RDG 6 2 4 6 6 5 6 4 72 Clare Wagner '22
Elizabeth Leo '24
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 4 2 2 4 4 5 5 6 4 4 3 2 6 74 Hannah Mercurio '24 [1-20]
Kieran Mcmahon '22 [1-3, 7-9, 12-14]
Emmah Nolan '23 [4-6, 10-11]
Helen Bechler '22 [15-20]
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 5 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 6 4 6 3 1 4 2 2 2 1 1 3 78 Julia Grimes '25 [1-11]
Carolina Cassedy '22 [12-20]
Natalie Aramendia '25 [1-11]
Margaret Gaw '22 [12-20]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 5 RDG 3 6 5 5 3 2 5 5 97 Anika Pruim '22
Evelyn Earnhardt '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 23 Isabella Du Plessis '25 [1-17]
Annika Milstien '25 [18-20]
Weatherley Tripp '23 [1-6, 15-20]
Annika Milstien '25 [7-14]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 2 2 4 4 2 3 2 3 3 RDG 3 3 1 53 Lydia Sweeney '25 [1-20]
Helen Bechler '22 [1-3, 7-9, 12-14]
Katherine Driebe '24 [4-6, 10-11]
Kieran Mcmahon '22 [15-20]
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 3 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 3 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 76 Christine Catherman '22 [1-11]
Natalie Aramendia '25 [12-20]
Chloe Mahachek '25 [1-11]
Christine Catherman '22 [12-20]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 4 3 3 3 5 2 3 3 3 2 2 4 4 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 80 Felicity Davies '23
Faith Kane '23
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5 4 4 4 3 6 6 4 4 3 3 5 5 4 5 4 3 6 5 4 87 Olivia Campmany '25
Laureana Dizon '24
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals DNF 6 6 5 2 3 4 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 6 99 Veronica Moore '25 [1-20]
Jillian Ingram '25 [1-3, 10-11, 18-20]
Margaret Kelly '23 [4-6, 12-17]
Joanie Roque '25 [7-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals7772223334455566
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils2223334445566611
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes4445556667722233
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3334445556611122
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks5556667772233344
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos6667772223344455

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals1112223334455566
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils2223334445566677
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes4445556661122233
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3334445556677722
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks5556661112233344
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos6661112223344455
School / Team SkipperCrew
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Clare Wagner '22 Elizabeth Leo '24
Cardinals Veronica Moore '25 [1-20] Jillian Ingram '25 [1-3, 10-11, 18-20]
Margaret Kelly '23 [4-6, 12-17]
Joanie Roque '25 [7-9]
Duke University Duke University Julia Grimes '25 [1-11]
Carolina Cassedy '22 [12-20]
Natalie Aramendia '25 [1-11]
Margaret Gaw '22 [12-20]
Blue Devils Christine Catherman '22 [1-11]
Natalie Aramendia '25 [12-20]
Chloe Mahachek '25 [1-11]
Christine Catherman '22 [12-20]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Olivia Sowa '24 [1-20] Josey Buescher '22 [1-6, 12-14]
Magnolia Smith '25 [7-11]
Abby Scudder '24 [15-20]
Wolfpack Isabella Du Plessis '25 [1-17]
Annika Milstien '25 [18-20]
Weatherley Tripp '23 [1-6, 15-20]
Annika Milstien '25 [7-14]
University of Miami University of Miami Julianna Skoglund '23 Chloe Beach '24
Hurricanes Olivia Campmany '25 Laureana Dizon '24
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Anika Pruim '22 Evelyn Earnhardt '25
Seahawks Felicity Davies '23 Faith Kane '23
University of Virginia University of Virginia Hannah Mercurio '24 [1-20] Kieran Mcmahon '22 [1-3, 7-9, 12-14]
Emmah Nolan '23 [4-6, 10-11]
Helen Bechler '22 [15-20]
Wahoos Lydia Sweeney '25 [1-20] Helen Bechler '22 [1-3, 7-9, 12-14]
Katherine Driebe '24 [4-6, 10-11]
Kieran Mcmahon '22 [15-20]

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From NNE (25°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1016.3 hPa Rain0.70 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn* · N 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →