Cazenovia Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 23 20 43
2 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 19 26 45
3 Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 25 23 48
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 42 43 85
5 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 55 MRP 42 MRP 97 MRP
6 Yellowjackets Yellowjackets Yellowjackets 47 MRP 55 MRP 102 MRP
7 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 53 57 110
8 Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Nittany Lions 72 72 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 4 2 5 1 1 1 4 1 19 Stanley Galloway '22 [1-3, 7-8]
Henry Polaski '25 [4-6]
Madeline Love '23 [1-3, 7-8]
Caroline Siedlecki '23 [4-6]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 23 Shay Gualdoni '25
Henry Ihle '25
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 1 5 1 4 6 5 1 2 25 Michael Stewart '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Allen Underwood Iii '25 [4-6]
Elizabeth Price '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Andrew Patterson '26 [4-6]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 3 4 4 6 7 6 5 7 42 William Hagen '26 [1-3]
Heath Megnin '26 [4-6]
John Colby '20 [7-8]
Tucker Ballou '26 [1-3]
Gabriella Maldonado '25 [4-6]
William Hagen '26 [7-8]
Yellowjackets Yellowjackets Yellowjackets 6 1 6 2 4 2 2 4 47 MRP
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 7 7 7 7 5 7 7 6 53 Dima Murtada '23
Kira Rios '25
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 5 6 2 5 2 4 6 5 55 MRP Lauren Manney '23 [1-3, 8]
Jonah Nelson '27 [4-7]
James Mercer '27 [1-6, 8]
Aoife Cannon '23 [7]
Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Nittany Lions DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 1 2 6 1 2 2 2 4 20 Alexa Whitman '26 [1-8]
Franny Demshak-Geddes '25 [1-6]
Jamyka Smith '26 [7-8]
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 5 1 4 3 4 4 1 1 23 Ethan Stone '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Renata Altuzar Barcenas '26 [4-6]
Olivia Todd '25 [1-3]
Kate Constan '26 [4-8]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 2 3 5 2 3 5 3 3 26 Ridgeway Case '26
Rachel Macko '23
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 3 4 1 4 1 1 6 2 42 MRP Ashley Franklin '27
Hayden Graff '27
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 6 6 3 6 6 6 5 5 43 Maren Behnke '25 [1-3]
Alec Wyers '23 [4-6]
Laura Jayne '25 [7-8]
Sophia Fonseca '26 [1-3]
Lauren Grabski '25 [4-6]
Katie Metis '26 [7-8]
Yellowjackets Yellowjackets Yellowjackets 4 5 2 5 5 3 4 7 55 MRP
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 7 7 DNS 7 7 7 7 6 57 Walter Kivala '26
Maila Akiba '25
Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Nittany Lions DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 72
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights11133355
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals22244466
Nittany LionsNittany Lions Nittany Lions33355577
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers77711133
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers44466688
YellowjacketsYellowjackets Yellowjackets88822244
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 155577711
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 266688822

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights22244466
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals33355577
Nittany LionsNittany Lions Nittany Lions44466688
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers88822244
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers55577711
YellowjacketsYellowjackets Yellowjackets11133355
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 166688822
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 277711133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Gannon University Gannon University Dima Murtada '23 Kira Rios '25
Knights Walter Kivala '26 Maila Akiba '25
Hamilton College Hamilton College Michael Stewart '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Allen Underwood Iii '25 [4-6]
Elizabeth Price '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Andrew Patterson '26 [4-6]
Continentals Ethan Stone '25 [1-3, 7-8]
Renata Altuzar Barcenas '26 [4-6]
Olivia Todd '25 [1-3]
Kate Constan '26 [4-8]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Lauren Manney '23 [1-3, 8]
Jonah Nelson '27 [4-7]
James Mercer '27 [1-6, 8]
Aoife Cannon '23 [7]
Tigers Ashley Franklin '27 Hayden Graff '27
Syracuse University Syracuse University Shay Gualdoni '25 Henry Ihle '25
Orange 1 Alexa Whitman '26 [1-8] Franny Demshak-Geddes '25 [1-6]
Jamyka Smith '26 [7-8]
Syracuse University Syracuse University William Hagen '26 [1-3]
Heath Megnin '26 [4-6]
John Colby '20 [7-8]
Tucker Ballou '26 [1-3]
Gabriella Maldonado '25 [4-6]
William Hagen '26 [7-8]
Orange 2 Maren Behnke '25 [1-3]
Alec Wyers '23 [4-6]
Laura Jayne '25 [7-8]
Sophia Fonseca '26 [1-3]
Lauren Grabski '25 [4-6]
Katie Metis '26 [7-8]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Stanley Galloway '22 [1-3, 7-8]
Henry Polaski '25 [4-6]
Madeline Love '23 [1-3, 7-8]
Caroline Siedlecki '23 [4-6]
Panthers Ridgeway Case '26 Rachel Macko '23

Conditions — 09/24/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn · S 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Syracuse: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Syracuse by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Syracuse, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →