Emma B. Regatta 2022

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 13 8 21
2 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 27 24 51
3 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 36 19 55
4 Boilermakers Boilermakers Boilermakers 20 40 60
5 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 48 33 81
6 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 28 56 84
7 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 53 51 104
8 Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 67 61 128
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 2 13 Charlie Herrick '26 [1-8]
Ryan Tatelbaum '26 [1-4]
Maddy Netzer '26 [5-8]
Boilermakers Boilermakers Boilermakers 3 2 3 2 1 1 5 3 20
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 4 4 4 4 5 3 1 27 Brynna Smith '22
Teddy Prokop '23
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 4 3 2 6 5 2 2 4 28 Eli Erling '26
Kylie Schaefer-Flynn '24
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 5 5 5 3 2 4 7 5 36 Carly Irwin '25
Garrett Szlachta '25
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 6 6 7 5 6 6 6 6 48 Keegan Aerts '25
Caden Jones '26
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 7 7 6 7 7 7 4 8 53 Jack Rutherford '25 [1-8]
Neva Brown '25 [1-2]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [3-8]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals DNF DNS DNS DNS 8 8 8 7 67 Avie Krauss '24 [1-8]
Claire Greenway '24 [1, 5-8]
Morgan Lovegrove '24 [2-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 Daniel Sandoval '26 [1-4]
Phineas Tait '26 [5-8]
Maddy Netzer '26 [1-4]
Daniel Sandoval '26 [5-8]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 19 Reid Kwiatkowski '26 [1-4]
Sarah Corder '23 [5-8]
Reed Rossell '25 [1-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 4 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 24 Eva Rossell '23
Amelia Burke '23
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 2 5 4 3 4 4 6 5 33 Jack Lefevre '24
Megan Rakoczy '25
Boilermakers Boilermakers Boilermakers 5 4 5 6 5 5 4 6 40
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 8 6 7 7 6 6 7 4 51 Connor Bricco '26 [1-6]
Kent Colbrunn '24 [7-8]
Kayla Devries '25 [1-2, 7-8]
Cate Peerbolte '23 [3-4]
Kent Colbrunn '24 [5-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 6 8 8 8 7 7 5 7 56 Zach Sonkin '24 [1-8]
Molly Sullivan '23 [1-4]
Zoe Ruffing '25 [5-8]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 7 7 6 5 DNF DNS DNS DNS 61 Morgan Lovegrove '24 [1-8]
Piper Luke '26 [1-5]
Jillian Kaferle '26 [6]
Adam Bryan '26 [7]
Harley Mordarski '23 [8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers11335577
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen22446688
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles33557799
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans44668811
BoilermakersBoilermakers Boilermakers66881133
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals77992244
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos99224466
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers88113355

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers22446688
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen33557799
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles44668811
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans55779922
BoilermakersBoilermakers Boilermakers77992244
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals88113355
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos11335577
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers99224466
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Carly Irwin '25 Garrett Szlachta '25
Lakers Reid Kwiatkowski '26 [1-4]
Sarah Corder '23 [5-8]
Reed Rossell '25 [1-4]
Hope College Hope College Jack Rutherford '25 [1-8] Neva Brown '25 [1-2]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [3-8]
Flying Dutchmen Connor Bricco '26 [1-6]
Kent Colbrunn '24 [7-8]
Kayla Devries '25 [1-2, 7-8]
Cate Peerbolte '23 [3-4]
Kent Colbrunn '24 [5-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Eli Erling '26 Kylie Schaefer-Flynn '24
Golden Eagles Zach Sonkin '24 [1-8] Molly Sullivan '23 [1-4]
Zoe Ruffing '25 [5-8]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Brynna Smith '22 Teddy Prokop '23
Spartans Eva Rossell '23 Amelia Burke '23
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Avie Krauss '24 [1-8] Claire Greenway '24 [1, 5-8]
Morgan Lovegrove '24 [2-4]
Cardinals Morgan Lovegrove '24 [1-8] Piper Luke '26 [1-5]
Jillian Kaferle '26 [6]
Adam Bryan '26 [7]
Harley Mordarski '23 [8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charlie Herrick '26 [1-8] Ryan Tatelbaum '26 [1-4]
Maddy Netzer '26 [5-8]
Badgers Daniel Sandoval '26 [1-4]
Phineas Tait '26 [5-8]
Maddy Netzer '26 [1-4]
Daniel Sandoval '26 [5-8]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Keegan Aerts '25 Caden Jones '26
Broncos Jack Lefevre '24 Megan Rakoczy '25

Conditions — 10/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1012.1 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.5 kn
avg  ·  max 15.7 kn
Gusts to 32.1 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1012.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 15 kn · W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hope: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.70 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hope by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Hope, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →