The Charles Invitational

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 14
2 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 16
3 Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix 29
4 Huskies Huskies Huskies 36
5 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 39
6 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 40
7 Boston University Boston University Terriers 56 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 1 2 3 Emil Tullberg '25
Shannon Gondoly '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 2 3 5 Ted Richardsson '27
Scott Senatore '26
Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix B 7 1 8
Huskies Huskies Huskies A 5 4 9
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 6 5 11 Henry Poynter '26
Avery Wilson '25
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 4 7 11 Caelan Haddock '25
Frances Donahoe '24
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech B 8 6 14 Samuel Ott '24
Kaiden Martinez '26
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 3 14 17 Josh Sultanik '26
Carolyn Kravets '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 11 8 19 Robin Potter '25
Christopher Fridlington '24
Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix A 10 11 21
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 12 9 21 Talia Trigg '26
Clare Rados '27
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech A 13 12 25 Samuel Honor '25
Emre Sabaz '24
Huskies Huskies Huskies B 14 13 27
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 9 10 39 MRP Christopher Macken '26
Zachary Fournier '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers22
HuskiesHuskies Huskies66
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers33
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats77
PhoenixPhoenix Phoenix44
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks55
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech88

Division B

Team1B2B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers99
HuskiesHuskies Huskies1313
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers1010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1414
PhoenixPhoenix Phoenix1111
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1212
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech1717

Conditions — 09/09/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From WSW (239°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.28 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.49)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →