| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 20 |
| 2 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Spencer Barnes '24 | 22 |
| 3 |  |
Princeton University | Ossian Kamal '26 | 37 |
| 4 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | 38 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Reed Mcallister '27 | 41 |
| 6 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lars Osell '24 | 51 |
| 7 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Jack Carter '27 | 52 |
| 8 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Owen Harrod '26 | 52 |
| 9 |  |
Cornell University | Jack Merrill '24 | 56 |
| 10 | |
Cornell University | Aidan Lane '24 | 81 |
| 11 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Thomas Allison '27 | 81 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Spencer Barnes '24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
|
Princeton University | Ossian Kamal '26 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 38 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Reed Mcallister '27 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 41 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lars Osell '24 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Jack Carter '27 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 52 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Owen Harrod '26 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 52 |
|
Cornell University | Jack Merrill '24 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 56 |
|
Cornell University | Aidan Lane '24 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | DNS | DNS | DNS | 81 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Thomas Allison '27 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 81 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicholas Sessions '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 8/8 | 3.88 | 4.13 | +0.25 | 94th → 96th | 0.1 | 26% | 2.5 / 3.3 |
| 2 | Spencer Barnes '24 | SUNY Maritime College | 8/8 | 2.96 | 4.15 | +1.19 | 81st → 97th | 2.9 | 8% | 2.8 / 4.7 |
| 3 | Ossian Kamal '26 | Princeton University | 8/8 | 2.14 | 2.57 | +0.43 | 56th → 67th | 0.4 | 18% | 4.6 / 6.0 |
| 4 | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 8/8 | 2.23 | 2.80 | +0.57 | 58th → 76th | 0.8 | 25% | 4.8 / 5.8 |
| 5 | Reed Mcallister '27 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 | 8/8 | 2.54 | 2.52 | −0.01 | 66th → 65th | 0.0 | 47% | 5.1 / 5.4 |
| 6 | Lars Osell '24 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 | 8/8 | 2.06 | 2.13 | +0.07 | 53rd → 56th | 0.0 | 57% | 6.4 / 6.1 |
| 7 | Jack Carter '27 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 | 8/8 | 1.54 | 1.93 | +0.39 | 38th → 49th | 0.4 | 37% | 6.5 / 7.0 |
| 7 | Owen Harrod '26 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 8/8 | 2.05 | 2.10 | +0.05 | 53rd → 55th | 0.0 | 60% | 6.5 / 6.2 |
| 9 | Jack Merrill '24 | Cornell University Big Red 2 | 8/8 | 1.53 | 1.50 | −0.03 | 38th → 38th | 0.0 | 52% | 7.0 / 6.9 |
| 10 | Aidan Lane '24 | Cornell University Big Red 1 | 8/8 | 1.56 | 0.12 | −1.45 | 39th → 8th | 3.2 | 98% | 10.1 / 7.0 |
| 10 | Thomas Allison '27 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 | 8/8 | 1.21 | -0.53 | −1.75 | 28th → 2nd | 5.8 | 98% | 10.1 / 7.6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
