Navigate

MAISA Men's Singlehanded's - Carl Van Duyne Trophy

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicholas Sessions '24 1 6 7 5 2 1 5 9 6 3 2 1 3 9 60
Hampton University Hampton University Valerio Palamara '24 2 5 3 3 15 10 3 2 4 4 3 2 1 7 64
Georgetown University Georgetown University Benjamin Smith '26 5 3 5 4 4 8 14 6 2 5 1 11 9 6 83
Georgetown University Georgetown University Peter Barnard '27 8 4 12 2 8 7 6 11 3 8 5 7 4 1 86
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Trenton Shaw '24 14 11 10 1 1 3 1 5 5 10 12 16 5 2 96
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Teddy Martin '27 9 14 2 7 12 9 8 4 9 11 7 5 2 3 102
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Reed Mcallister '27 13 1 15 9 3 2 15 10 10 9 4 8 12 5 116
Princeton University Princeton University Ossian Kamal '26 4 13 18 11 7 4 10 3 7 2 10 10 13 10 122
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Charlie Anderson '25 3 9 13 6 18 11 13 7 1 7 6 4 15 13 126
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Mats Braaten '27 6 16 1 8 10 13 2 1 OCS 6 16 9 16 8 131
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 12 7 6 15 17 12 9 12 12 1 14 12 8 4 141
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Lars Osell '24 16 2 11 16 BKD BKD 4 14 15 18 13 6 7 14 158
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Sam Riley '27 7 18 17 17 5 14 7 17 14 15 11 3 14 11 170
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Andrew Ciszewski '25 15 15 16 14 6 15 11 8 8 14 8 17 6 17 170
Georgetown University Georgetown University Leighton Farrel '26 18 10 4 13 9 5 18 18 11 12 15 BKD 11 15 171
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Owen Harrod '26 11 17 8 12 11 6 16 16 13 13 BKD 14 10 16 176
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Aston Atherton '26 10 12 14 18 14 17 12 13 17 17 9 13 17 12 195
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jack Carter '27 17 8 9 10 13 18 17 15 16 16 DNS DNS DNS DNS 215

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nicholas Sessions '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/143.884.41+0.5394th → 98th1.314%4.3 / 6.2
2Valerio Palamara '24Hampton University14/143.924.09+0.1795th → 95th0.123%4.6 / 6.0
3Benjamin Smith '26Georgetown University Hoyas 214/143.233.72+0.5085th → 93rd1.219%5.9 / 7.8
4Peter Barnard '27Georgetown University Hoyas 114/143.903.69−0.2294th → 93rd0.354%6.1 / 6.1
5Trenton Shaw '24U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114/143.223.17−0.0585th → 84th0.038%6.9 / 7.9
6Teddy Martin '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214/142.653.37+0.7270th → 89th2.516%7.3 / 9.4
7Reed Mcallister '27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 114/142.542.98+0.4466th → 81st1.026%8.3 / 9.7
8Ossian Kamal '26Princeton University14/142.142.77+0.6356th → 74th1.818%8.7 / 10.7
9Charlie Anderson '25St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 114/142.882.68−0.2078th → 71st0.257%9.0 / 8.7
10Mats Braaten '27St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214/142.552.47−0.0866th → 62nd0.046%9.4 / 9.7
11Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/142.332.54+0.2160th → 66th0.245%10.1 / 10.3
12Andrew Ciszewski '25Old Dominion University Monarchs 114/142.631.78−0.8469th → 44th4.085%12.1 / 9.5
12Sam Riley '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 214/141.771.75−0.0243rd → 43rd0.057%12.1 / 11.8
14Lars Osell '24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214/142.291.84−0.4559th → 46th0.980%12.4 / 10.3
15Leighton Farrel '26Georgetown University Hoyas 314/141.58u1.51−0.0739th → 38th0.058%12.7 / 12.1
16Owen Harrod '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 414/141.951.95−0.0050th → 50th0.080%13.0 / 11.2
17Aston Atherton '26Christopher Newport University14/141.941.34−0.6050th → 31st1.890%13.9 / 11.3
18Jack Carter '27Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 314/141.541.41−0.1338th → 34th0.196%15.4 / 12.3

Conditions — 09/30/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1021.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From N (8°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine6.7 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1021.6 hPa Rain0.05 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →