Corpus Christi Fall Open #3

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 1 9 9
2 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 3 14 14
3 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 1 24 24
4 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 2 24 24
5 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 2 27 27
6 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 3 36 36
7 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 4 37 37
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 9 Nicholas Carew '27
Justine Alvarado '25
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 3 2 5 2 3 1 1 14 Brett Pearson '26
Caden Allensworth '28
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 1 4 3 4 2 6 5 24 Macie Bettis '28
Isabella Mattison '25
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 2 5 2 5 4 4 4 24 Ethan Polsen '27
Stetson Mcdonald '28
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 2 DNS 6 3 5 3 2 27 Maddy Lee '27 [1-6]
Destini Sanchez-Warren '27 [1-5]
Jordan Wilcox '26 [6]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 3 3 7 7 7 5 7 36 Noah Aycock '25 [1-6]
Mandy Gergen '28 [1-5]
Dennis Robinson '28 [6]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 4 DNS 4 6 6 7 6 37 Jacob Gergen '28
Oliver Anderson '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 1111111
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 2333333
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 3444444
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 4555555
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 1888888
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 2999999
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies 3101010101010

Conditions — 11/09/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From N (356°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1013.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 4 kn · N 9 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Texas A&M C. Christ: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M C. Christ by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Texas A&M C. Christ, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →