| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Peter Barnard '27 | 58 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Charlie Anderson '25 | 67 |
| 3 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Mats Braaten '27 | 70 |
| 4 | |
Georgetown University | Benjamin Smith '26 | 70 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Sean Trudell '28 | 73 |
| 6 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Teddy Martin '27 | 94 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Pierce Brindley '28 | 105 |
| 8 | |
Old Dominion University | Sam Riley '27 | 115 |
| 9 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Spencer Dominguez '27 | 116 |
| 10 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Umi Noritake '28 | 125 |
| 11 | |
Old Dominion University | Blake Goodwin '27 | 129 |
| 12 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Aston Atherton '26 | 139 |
| 13 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Logan Hayes '27 | 159 |
| 14 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Nathan Jensen '27 | 178 |
| 15 | |
Georgetown University | Anson Walker '25 | 193 |
| 16 | |
Christopher Newport University | Walter Roou '25 | 205 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Peter Barnard '27 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Charlie Anderson '25 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 67 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Mats Braaten '27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 70 |
|
Georgetown University | Benjamin Smith '26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 70 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Sean Trudell '28 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 73 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Teddy Martin '27 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 94 |
|
Old Dominion University | Pierce Brindley '28 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 105 |
|
Old Dominion University | Sam Riley '27 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 115 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Spencer Dominguez '27 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 13 | BKD | 9 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 116 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Umi Noritake '28 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 125 |
|
Old Dominion University | Blake Goodwin '27 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 129 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Aston Atherton '26 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 139 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Logan Hayes '27 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 159 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Nathan Jensen '27 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 178 |
|
Georgetown University | Anson Walker '25 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 193 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Walter Roou '25 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 205 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Barnard '27 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 14/14 | 3.96 | 3.95 | −0.01 | 95th → 95th | 0.0 | 35% | 4.1 / 4.8 |
| 2 | Charlie Anderson '25 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 14/14 | 3.18 | 3.86 | +0.67 | 85th → 94th | 2.1 | 16% | 4.8 / 6.5 |
| 3 | Benjamin Smith '26 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 14/14 | 3.45 | 3.41 | −0.04 | 89th → 89th | 0.0 | 32% | 5.0 / 5.9 |
| 3 | Mats Braaten '27 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 14/14 | 2.62 | 3.55 | +0.92 | 69th → 92nd | 3.5 | 6% | 5.0 / 7.8 |
| 5 | Sean Trudell '28 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 | 14/14 | 2.57 | 3.63 | +1.06 | 67th → 92nd | 4.8 | 6% | 5.2 / 7.9 |
| 6 | Teddy Martin '27 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 14/14 | 2.76 | 3.00 | +0.25 | 73rd → 82nd | 0.3 | 35% | 6.7 / 7.5 |
| 7 | Pierce Brindley '28 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 | 14/14 | 2.63 | 2.41 | −0.22 | 69th → 61st | 0.2 | 46% | 7.5 / 7.8 |
| 8 | Sam Riley '27 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 14/14 | 1.99 | 2.42 | +0.43 | 51st → 62nd | 0.9 | 28% | 8.2 / 9.3 |
| 9 | Spencer Dominguez '27 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 14/14 | 2.91 | 2.49 | −0.42 | 79th → 63rd | 0.9 | 84% | 8.9 / 7.2 |
| 9 | Umi Noritake '28 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 | 14/14 | 2.35 | 2.45 | +0.10 | 60th → 62nd | 0.1 | 60% | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 11 | Blake Goodwin '27 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 14/14 | 2.21 | 1.97 | −0.24 | 58th → 51st | 0.3 | 61% | 9.2 / 8.8 |
| 12 | Aston Atherton '26 | Christopher Newport University Captains 1 | 14/14 | 2.15 | 1.72 | −0.43 | 56th → 43rd | 1.0 | 70% | 9.9 / 8.9 |
| 13 | Logan Hayes '27 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 14/14 | 1.46 | 1.44 | −0.02 | 36th → 35th | 0.0 | 67% | 11.4 / 10.4 |
| 14 | Nathan Jensen '27 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 | 14/14 | 1.73 | 0.94 | −0.79 | 43rd → 21st | 3.3 | 91% | 12.7 / 9.9 |
| 15 | Anson Walker '25 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 14/14 | 0.59 | 0.39 | −0.20 | 15th → 12th | 0.2 | 80% | 13.8 / 12.2 |
| 16 | Walter Roou '25 | Christopher Newport University Captains 2 | 14/14 | 0.30 | -0.19 | −0.49 | 11th → 4th | 0.8 | 89% | 14.6 / 12.7 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
