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Seahawk Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 10 6 16
2 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 15 23 38
3 The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 24 28 52
4 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red & White 25 27 52
5 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 28 24 52
6 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 38 42 80
7 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 50 36 86
8 Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Commodores 46 64 110
9 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 65 52 117
10 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 63 64 127
11 Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Black & Gold 67 64 131
12 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Beach 63 70 133
13 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 73 63 136
14 University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 63 73 136
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 1 3 1 1 2 10 Benjamin Usher '27
Shea Hoffacker '27
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 1 2 2 3 2 5 15 Nilah Miller '25
Bryson Eaton '28
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 3 5 8 2 3 3 24 Kenneth Buck '26
Luke Pennisi '28
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red & White 4 4 7 4 5 1 25 William Wheary '28
Evelyn Hannah '28
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 5 6 4 5 4 4 28 Noah Jost '27 [1-3]
Francis "Mac" Humphrey '26 [4-6]
Runyon Tyler '26 [1-3]
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 8 3 1 9 11 6 38 Ian Hoogenboom '25
Ava Wietlisbach '28
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Commodores 7 10 6 6 9 8 46 Jack Schultz '27
Jacob Fisher '27
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 6 7 10 10 6 11 50 Tucker Parks '25
Jane Caroline Minchew '25
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 9 8 13 12 8 13 63 Tyler Williams '26 [1-6]
Tyler Feldheim '26 [1-3]
Sarah Lillard '26 [4-6]
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 11 11 11 11 12 7 63 Sebastian Helgesen '27
Bales Brannon '28
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Beach 14 9 5 13 13 9 63 Sam Woodley '26 [1-6]
Cameron Sumners '27 [1-3]
Christopher Tierney '27 [4-6]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 13 13 12 8 7 12 65 Hailey Hathaway '26 [1-3]
Polk Baggett '26 [4-6]
Anna Pederson '25 [1-3]
No Show [4-6]
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Black & Gold 12 12 9 14 10 10 67 Victor Larimer '28
Paulo Nicoli '27
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 10 14 14 7 14 14 73 Joey Dunn '25
Rebecca Koch '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Jacob Usher '25
Julia Boutet '27
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 2 2 2 8 4 5 23 Neil Bunce '25 [1-6]
Vanessa Marahrens '26 [1-3]
Taylor Bulwinkle '28 [4-6]
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 6 3 3 3 3 6 24 May Proctor '27
Megan Miller '26
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red & White 8 4 5 5 2 3 27 Marc Hauenstein '27
Lindsey Mcdonough '25
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 3 6 6 4 5 4 28 Bradlee Anderson '28 [1-3]
Reese Blackwell '28 [4-5]
Luke Pennisi '28 [6]
Reese Blackwell '28 [1-3]
Bradlee Anderson '28 [4-5]
Ben Stevenson '27 [6]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 11 10 4 2 7 2 36 Oscar Lubliner '27
Evan Inscoe '25
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 4 5 10 7 9 7 42 William Robertson '25
James Kelly '28
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 5 8 7 12 12 8 52 Abbi Barnette '26
Carley Yount '25
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 10 11 13 6 11 12 63 Cade Boguslaw '27
Emma Frank '25
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Black & Gold 7 9 9 9 DNS DNS 64 Pablo Ginorio '27
Toby Grant '26
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Commodores 9 7 8 10 DNS DNS 64 Mira Singh '26
Cameron Johnson '28
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 13 12 11 13 6 9 64 Sam Lookadoo '25
Alana Vodicka '26
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Beach 14 13 14 11 8 10 70 Julia Morash '27 [1-3]
Caswell Kern '26 [4-6]
No Show [1-3]
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 12 14 12 14 10 11 73 William Adams '27
Macguire Reilley '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs666888
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers111333
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils222444
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs777999
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels888101010
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red & White555777
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror444666
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack333555
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks121212141414
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks999111111
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Beach111111131313
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub101010121212
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Black & Gold141414222
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Commodores131313111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs777999
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers222444
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils333555
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs888101010
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels999111111
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red & White666888
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror555777
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack444666
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks131313111
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks101010121212
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Beach121212141414
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub111111131313
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Black & Gold111333
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Commodores141414222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Clemson University Clemson University Nilah Miller '25 Bryson Eaton '28
Tigers Neil Bunce '25 [1-6] Vanessa Marahrens '26 [1-3]
Taylor Bulwinkle '28 [4-6]
Duke University Duke University Ian Hoogenboom '25 Ava Wietlisbach '28
Blue Devils William Robertson '25 James Kelly '28
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University William Wheary '28 Evelyn Hannah '28
Red & White Marc Hauenstein '27 Lindsey Mcdonough '25
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Tucker Parks '25 Jane Caroline Minchew '25
Red Terror Oscar Lubliner '27 Evan Inscoe '25
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Benjamin Usher '27 Shea Hoffacker '27
Wolfpack Jacob Usher '25 Julia Boutet '27
The Citadel The Citadel Kenneth Buck '26 Luke Pennisi '28
Bulldogs Bradlee Anderson '28 [1-3]
Reese Blackwell '28 [4-5]
Luke Pennisi '28 [6]		 Reese Blackwell '28 [1-3]
Bradlee Anderson '28 [4-5]
Ben Stevenson '27 [6]
University of Georgia University of Georgia Sebastian Helgesen '27 Bales Brannon '28
Bulldogs William Adams '27 Macguire Reilley '26
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Noah Jost '27 [1-3]
Francis "Mac" Humphrey '26 [4-6]		 Runyon Tyler '26 [1-3]
Tar Heels May Proctor '27 Megan Miller '26
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Hailey Hathaway '26 [1-3]
Polk Baggett '26 [4-6]		 Anna Pederson '25 [1-3]
No Show [4-6]
Seahawks Abbi Barnette '26 Carley Yount '25
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Sam Woodley '26 [1-6] Cameron Sumners '27 [1-3]
Christopher Tierney '27 [4-6]
The Beach Julia Morash '27 [1-3]
Caswell Kern '26 [4-6]		 No Show [1-3]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Joey Dunn '25 Rebecca Koch '25
The Dub Cade Boguslaw '27 Emma Frank '25
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Tyler Williams '26 [1-6] Tyler Feldheim '26 [1-3]
Sarah Lillard '26 [4-6]
Gamecocks Sam Lookadoo '25 Alana Vodicka '26
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Victor Larimer '28 Paulo Nicoli '27
Black & Gold Pablo Ginorio '27 Toby Grant '26
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Jack Schultz '27 Jacob Fisher '27
Commodores Mira Singh '26 Cameron Johnson '28

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From NNE (13°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1030.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.27 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UNC Wilmington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at UNC Wilmington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →