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Top-9 Fall Invite

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 4 2 4 1 5 2 2 1 1 2 3 5 1 1 1 1 36 Chapman Petersen '26 [1-7]
Reade Decker '27 [8-16]
Abby Baird '28 [1-7]
Ashtyn Tierney '28 [8-16]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 1 1 1 4 1 4 1 2 2 3 6 1 2 2 2 4 37 Dylan Sih '28 [1-7]
Lucas Woodworth '27 [8-16]
Shay Wood '27 [1-7]
Caroline Geiger '28 [8-16]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 9 9 3 11 4 3 17 3 4 1 2 11 3 10 6 5 101 Nicholas Mueller '27
Gavin Steuerwald '28
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 2 7 5 12 2 11 3 4 10 10 4 9 11 5 9 2 106 Benjamin Stone '27
Jaya Wirth '27
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 7 11 2 7 3 1 4 7 3 8 12 10 5 12 10 7 109 Erik Anderson '26
Amanda Turner '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 6 12 12 3 8 5 12 5 7 5 7 6 6 4 16 6 120 Ted Mcdonough '26
Avalon Everett '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 11 10 11 9 7 8 13 8 5 4 1 12 4 9 13 9 134 Hudson Mayfield '27
Ariana Gabier '24
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 5 3 10 8 10 6 5 14 13 15 5 15 15 3 4 8 139 Henry Boeger '25
Samuel Long '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 8 6 15 6 11 18 7 6 9 6 11 7 16 6 8 10 150 Danny Juan '28 [1-16]
Tillie Jane Leroy '27 [1-2, 6-7, 10, 14-16]
Kirin Dhaka '27 [3-5, 8-9, 11-13]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 3 4 16 10 6 12 10 18 14 9 9 4 13 15 11 3 157 Luke Harris '27 [1-7]
Morgana Manti '26 [8-16]
Ava Bergan '27 [1-7]
Jackson Mckinley '26 [8-16]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 10 15 6 14 12 15 6 10 8 12 8 2 12 11 3 16 160 Everett Mcavoy '26 [1-5]
Vivian Bonsager '25 [6-16]
Sophia Shaeffer '25 [1-5]
Kees Horn '25 [6-16]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 17 13 7 5 9 7 8 11 6 13 13 3 14 13 5 18 162 Nate Ingebritson '25
Ethan Lisle '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 13 5 14 2 13 14 9 9 17 7 14 16 8 14 14 11 180 Robert Bloomfield '26
Samuel Groom '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 12 16 9 17 16 9 16 15 15 18 10 13 9 7 7 13 202 Will Cornell '25 [1-4, 10-16]
Carsten Zieger '28 [5-9]
Emerson Marquez '27 [1-6, 9-16]
John Mayfield '28 [7-8]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 16 14 17 13 17 10 15 13 16 14 15 8 17 8 12 14 219 Sam Jennings '27 [1-16]
Logan Chapman '26 [1-7]
Nicolai Perez '28 [8-16]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 14 8 8 16 15 16 11 16 12 16 17 14 10 17 15 15 220 Jack Kisling '25
Kyle Hirth '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 15 17 13 15 14 13 18 12 11 17 18 17 7 16 17 12 232 Daren Sathasivam '25
Christopher Milan '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 18 18 18 18 18 17 14 17 18 11 16 18 18 18 18 17 272 Conrad Kistler '26
Aidan Araoz '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears4444444444444444
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2222222222222222
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3333333333333333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows7777777777777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans8888888888888888
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1111111111111111
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins5555555555555555
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6666666666666666
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies9999999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears13131313131313131313131313131313
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers11111111111111111111111111111111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs12121212121212121212121212121212
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows16161616161616161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans17171717171717171717171717171717
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal10101010101010101010101010101010
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins14141414141414141414141414141414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos15151515151515151515151515151515
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies18181818181818181818181818181818

Conditions — 10/26/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 34%  ·  Pressure 1019.3 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 12.8 kn
From N (2°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity34% Pressure1019.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn* · W 9 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →