Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W43). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.
Percentile places a rating among the 2,062 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.
Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
Rating after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loki Barrett '30 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 | 7/7 | 262 | 362 | +100 | 83rd → 94th | 2.6 | 9% | 2.3 / 5.0 | 263 |
| 2 | Nicholas Parszik '30 | California Poly Maritime Academy | 4/7 | 149 | 352 | +204 | 65th → 93rd | 5.7 | 4% | 2.8 / 8.7 | 149 |
| 2 | Lucca Farrell '30 | California Poly Maritime Academy | 3/7 | 177 | 246 | +69 | 69th → 81st | 0.7 | 22% | 4.3 / 7.7 | 177 |
| 3 | Mitchel Sanford '28 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 | 7/7 | 195 | 256 | +61 | 73rd → 82nd | 1.3 | 19% | 4.4 / 7.0 | 196 |
| 4 | Juan Casal '27 | Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 | 7/7 | 185 | 239 | +54 | 71st → 80th | 1.0 | 25% | 5.1 / 7.4 | 186 |
| 5 | Isaac Sharp '27 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 | 7/7 | 190 | 221 | +31 | 72nd → 77th | 0.4 | 33% | 5.4 / 7.4 | 190 |
| 6 | Carsten Zieger '28 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 | 7/7 | 220 | 181 | -38 | 77th → 70th | 0.6 | 60% | 6.4 / 6.2 | 219 |
| 7 | Kai Brennan '29 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 | 7/7 | 150 | 141 | -8 | 65th → 63rd | 0.0 | 44% | 7.9 / 8.6 | 150 |
| 8 | Gwen Hildebrand '29 | University of California at Davis Aggies 1 | 7/7 | 130 | 135 | +6 | 61st → 62nd | 0.0 | 41% | 8.3 / 9.3 | 130 |
| 9 | Richard Kramer '27 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 | 7/7 | 29 | 87 | +59 | 41st → 52nd | 1.3 | 25% | 10.6 / 13.2 | 30 |
| 9 | Alvina Lin '29 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 | 4/7 | -15 | 18 | +33 | 32nd → 39th | 0.3 | 36% | 13.5 / 14.9 | -9 |
| 9 | Amelia Gassner '28 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 | 3/7 | 151 | 202 | +51 | 65th → 74th | 0.4 | 35% | 6.7 / 8.7 | 151 |
| 11 | Camden Wacha '27 | Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 | 7/7 | -4 | 56 | +60 | 35th → 46th | 1.3 | 26% | 12.1 / 14.6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nia Raghavan '29 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 | 7/7 | -12 | 59 | +71 | 32nd → 47th | 1.9 | 30% | 12.7 / 14.8 | -11 |
| 13 | Darren Smith '29 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 | 5/7 | 0n | 1 | +1 | 35th → 35th | 0.0 | 46% | 13.8 / 14.3 | 0 |
| 13 | Anjali Venugopalan '29 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 | 2/7 | 18 | 92 | +74 | 39th → 54th | 0.6 | 38% | 11.5 / 13.3 | 18 |
| 14 | Chase Vanderveer '27 | Santa Clara University Broncos 1 | 7/7 | -10 | -4 | +6 | 33rd → 35th | 0.0 | 46% | 14.4 / 14.8 | -10 |
| 14 | Isabella Loiselle '28 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 | 5/7 | 134 | 168 | +34 | 62nd → 67th | 0.2 | 69% | 10.6 / 9.2 | 134 |
| 14 | Michael Perez '28 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 | 2/7 | -127n | — | — | 7th → — | 5.9 | >99% | 24.0 / 18.2 | -127 |
| 16 | Spencer Eldridge '28 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3 | 7/7 | -3 | -33 | -29 | 35th → 28th | 0.4 | 66% | 15.9 / 14.4 | -4 |
| 17 | Anjali Venugopalan '29 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4 | 5/7 | 18 | -20 | -38 | 39th → 31st | 0.5 | 71% | 16.0 / 13.6 | 18 |
| 17 | Alexander Dong '29 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4 | 2/7 | -72 | -25 | +47 | 18th → 30th | 0.3 | 48% | 17.0 / 16.8 | -61 |
| 19 | Bennett Alger '28 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 | 7/7 | -39 | -53 | -14 | 26th → 23rd | 0.1 | 72% | 18.0 / 15.9 | -39 |
| 19 | Emerson Coskey '27 | University of California at Davis Aggies 2 | 7/7 | -69 | -40 | +29 | 19th → 26th | 0.3 | 59% | 18.0 / 16.9 | -69 |
| 21 | David Hervy '29 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 | 7/7 | -76 | -67 | +10 | 16th → 19th | 0.0 | 66% | 19.0 / 17.1 | -76 |
| 22 | Nola Jesenko '30 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 | 7/7 | 2 | -158 | -160 | 36th → 3rd | 12.7 | 99% | 20.4 / 14.4 | 1 |
| 23 | Tristan Meyer '27 | University of California at Davis Aggies 3 | 7/7 | -112 | -96 | +16 | 10th → 13th | 0.1 | 82% | 21.3 / 18.2 | -112 |
| 24 | Lauren Laird '29 | Santa Clara University Broncos 2 | 7/7 | -173 | -199 | -25 | 2nd → 1st | 0.2 | 80% | 22.4 / 19.9 | -174 |
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
Rating after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Vare '30 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 | 7/7 | 254 | 416 | +162 | 82nd → 98th | 4.5 | 4% | 1.4 / 3.7 | 256 |
| 2 | Nathaniel Grinkrug '27 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 | 7/7 | 158 | 196 | +38 | 66th → 73rd | 0.5 | 22% | 3.9 / 5.9 | 159 |
| 3 | Nicholas Friedman '30 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 | 7/7 | 142n | 201 | +59 | 63rd → 74th | 1.2 | 28% | 4.0 / 7.0 | 142 |
| 4 | Cameron Furin '29 | California Poly Maritime Academy | 7/7 | 140 | 137 | -3 | 63rd → 62nd | 0.0 | 32% | 4.9 / 6.4 | 140 |
| 5 | Ulises Kuijken-Lewis '27 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 | 7/7 | 83 | 140 | +57 | 52nd → 63rd | 1.1 | 21% | 5.4 / 8.5 | 83 |
| 6 | Matthew Stank '27 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 | 7/7 | 24 | 45 | +22 | 40th → 44th | 0.2 | 21% | 7.6 / 10.4 | 24 |
| 7 | Quincy Meggers '30 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 | 7/7 | -41 | 60 | +101 | 26th → 47th | 3.4 | 13% | 8.1 / 12.8 | -39 |
| 8 | Brendan O'Connor '27 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 | 5/7 | 187 | 186 | -1 | 71st → 71st | 0.0 | 44% | 4.4 / 5.2 | 187 |
| 8 | Judah Lion '30 | University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 | 2/7 | -16 | -49 | -33 | 32nd → 23rd | 0.1 | 93% | 19.5 / 11.8 | -16 |
| 9 | Tony Gao '28 | University of California at Davis Aggies 1 | 7/7 | -28 | -16 | +11 | 29th → 32nd | 0.1 | 43% | 11.7 / 12.4 | -27 |
| 10 | Minghao Wang '29 | University of California at Davis Aggies 2 | 7/7 | -102 | -31 | +71 | 12th → 28th | 1.8 | 21% | 11.9 / 15.1 | -100 |
| 11 | Anya Knoepp '28 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4 | 5/7 | -4 | 28 | +32 | 35th → 41st | 0.3 | 42% | 10.2 / 11.4 | -3 |
| 11 | Case Olson '30 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4 | 2/7 | -91n | -231 | -140 | 14th → 1st | 1.9 | 61% | 16.5 / 14.5 | -91 |
| 12 | Boyang Zhang '30 | University of California at Davis Aggies 3 | 7/7 | -79 | -39 | +40 | 16th → 26th | 0.6 | 32% | 12.6 / 14.5 | -78 |
| 13 | Viviane Carroll '27 | Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 | 7/7 | -126 | -59 | +67 | 7th → 21st | 1.7 | 33% | 14.4 / 16.1 | -111 |
| 14 | Lily Trevisani '29 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 | 7/7 | -35 | -79 | -44 | 27th → 16th | 1.0 | 73% | 15.0 / 12.6 | -36 |
| 15 | Adrian Dubrow '30 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 | 4/7 | -39 | -110 | -71 | 26th → 10th | 1.5 | 85% | 17.0 / 13.0 | -39 |
| 15 | Nikolas Krause '28 | University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 | 3/7 | -19 | -45 | -27 | 31st → 24th | 0.1 | 59% | 12.7 / 12.0 | -19 |
| 16 | David Looby '28 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3 | 7/7 | -95 | -127 | -32 | 13th → 7th | 0.5 | 54% | 15.3 / 14.9 | -95 |
| 16 | Joaquin Torres '29 | Santa Clara University Broncos 1 | 7/7 | -132 | -65 | +66 | 6th → 20th | 1.7 | 38% | 15.3 / 16.3 | -131 |
| 19 | Case Olson '30 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 | 3/7 | -91n | -100 | -9 | 14th → 12th | 0.0 | 60% | 16.3 / 14.6 | -91 |
| 19 | Chas Mitchell '26 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 | 2/7 | -71 | -71 | -1 | 18th → 18th | 0.0 | 58% | 15.0 / 14.1 | -70 |
| 19 | M Mcgovern '30 | University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 | 2/7 | -29n | -80 | -51 | 28th → 16th | 0.4 | 69% | 15.5 / 12.4 | -29 |
| 20 | Benjamin Paige '28 | Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 | 7/7 | -114 | -139 | -25 | 9th → 5th | 0.2 | 64% | 17.3 / 15.7 | -114 |
| 21 | Austin Weske '27 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 | 7/7 | -162 | -160 | +2 | 3rd → 3rd | 0.0 | 73% | 19.7 / 17.3 | -162 |
| 22 | Andrew Harper '26 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 | 7/7 | -187n | -254 | -68 | 1st → 1st | 1.4 | 68% | 20.4 / 17.6 | -187 |
| 23 | Pike Williams '28 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 | 7/7 | -167 | -201 | -34 | 3rd → 1st | 0.5 | 95% | 21.9 / 17.4 | -167 |
| 24 | Miles Wilkinson '29 | Santa Clara University Broncos 2 | 7/7 | -149 | -242 | -93 | 4th → 1st | 2.9 | 96% | 22.4 / 16.9 | -149 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
