Kingsmill Cup

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 18 23 41
2 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 38 14 52
3 American University American University Eagles 43 33 76
4 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 36 40 76
5 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 24 67 91
6 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 31 64 95
7 Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 38 62 100
8 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 74 38 112
9 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 66 49 115
10 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 72 50 122
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 2 7 2 2 2 1 1 1 18 James Lilyquist '28 [1-8]
Michelle Taylor '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Cole Eastwood '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 1 3 4 3 4 6 2 24 Griffin Donahoe '28 [1-8]
Jacob Fleming '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Corine Glickstein '29 [5-6]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 8 6 5 1 1 5 2 3 31 Alexander Salzberg '29
Soledad Fintel '29
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 6 2 1 6 6 3 4 8 36 Sophie Grigg '28
Connor Smith '29
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 3 4 4 3 5 6 8 5 38 Charlotte Stillman '27
Finian Knight '28
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 5 5 8 5 4 2 3 6 38 Ivet Bejar '29
Micah Brandel '28
American University American University Eagles 4 3 6 7 7 7 5 4 43 Hannah Arey '27 [1-8]
Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Elin Boyce '29 [3-6]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 7 8 9 8 8 9 10 7 66 John Anthony Caraig '27 [1-8]
Erin Finan '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Zerima King '28 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 9 10 7 9 9 10 9 9 72 Benjamin D’Amico '27
Sofia Roberts '29
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 10 9 10 10 10 8 7 10 74 Kyle Johnson '27
Elizabeth Thesmar '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 14 Colin Cartwright '29 [1-4]
Eric Johnson '27 [5-8]
Maxine Hall '29 [1-4]
Eloise Graf '30 [5-8]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 1 5 10 3 1 1 1 23 Zachary Bender '28 [1-2, 5-8]
Keith Henderson '29 [3-4]
Emily Mock '27 [1-2, 5-6]
William Brock '29 [3-4, 7-8]
American University American University Eagles 4 6 7 2 2 3 4 5 33 Miles White '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Brooke Lorson '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Jonah Tinkelman '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Claire Gover '27 [3-4, 7-8]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 6 5 4 3 6 5 5 4 38 Alexander Deas '28 [1-8]
Jonah Peters '28 [1-4]
Tyler Samdal '27 [5-8]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 3 3 6 4 7 8 6 40 Noah Simcox '28 [1-8]
Linnea Wurdack '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Story '29 [3-4, 7-8]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 10 10 2 4 5 4 7 7 49 Christian Aron '27
Emma Mcalarney '29
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 7 7 6 8 9 8 2 3 50 Jackson Beam '29
Elsa Fellon '29
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 5 8 8 5 8 9 10 9 62 Jackson Manley '27
Maggie Cesario-Mckeon '30
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 9 4 9 9 10 6 9 8 64 Matthew Nadolny '27
Abby Wyman '29
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 8 9 10 7 7 10 6 10 67 Brandon Heckman '29 [1-8]
Alexander Kagy '29 [1-6]
Corine Glickstein '29 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2026 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles11335577
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals22446688
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains33557799
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates4466881010
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps55779911
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos6688101022
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies77991133
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen8810102244
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 199113355
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 21010224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles22446688
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals33557799
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains4466881010
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates55779911
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps6688101022
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos77991133
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8810102244
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen99113355
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 11010224466
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 211335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Hannah Arey '27 [1-8] Katherine Anderson '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Elin Boyce '29 [3-6]
Eagles Miles White '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Brooke Lorson '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Jonah Tinkelman '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Claire Gover '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America John Anthony Caraig '27 [1-8] Erin Finan '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Zerima King '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Cardinals Christian Aron '27 Emma Mcalarney '29
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Griffin Donahoe '28 [1-8] Jacob Fleming '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Corine Glickstein '29 [5-6]
Captains Brandon Heckman '29 [1-8] Alexander Kagy '29 [1-6]
Corine Glickstein '29 [7-8]
Hampton University Hampton University Ivet Bejar '29 Micah Brandel '28
Pirates Jackson Manley '27 Maggie Cesario-Mckeon '30
University of Maryland University of Maryland Sophie Grigg '28 Connor Smith '29
Terps Noah Simcox '28 [1-8] Linnea Wurdack '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Story '29 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Benjamin D’Amico '27 Sofia Roberts '29
Wahoos Jackson Beam '29 Elsa Fellon '29
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech James Lilyquist '28 [1-8] Michelle Taylor '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Cole Eastwood '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Hokies Zachary Bender '28 [1-2, 5-8]
Keith Henderson '29 [3-4]
Emily Mock '27 [1-2, 5-6]
William Brock '29 [3-4, 7-8]
Washington College Washington College Alexander Salzberg '29 Soledad Fintel '29
Shoremen Matthew Nadolny '27 Abby Wyman '29
William and Mary William and Mary Charlotte Stillman '27 Finian Knight '28
Tribe 1 Colin Cartwright '29 [1-4]
Eric Johnson '27 [5-8]
Maxine Hall '29 [1-4]
Eloise Graf '30 [5-8]
William and Mary William and Mary Kyle Johnson '27 Elizabeth Thesmar '27
Tribe 2 Alexander Deas '28 [1-8] Jonah Peters '28 [1-4]
Tyler Samdal '27 [5-8]

Conditions — 09/19/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From ENE (71°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1018.5 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at William and Mary: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →