North 3

HostBerkeley
Date02/26/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Keelhaulers	Keelhaulers	34	26	60
2	Berkeley 1	Berkeley 1	39	23	62
3	Mustang 1	Mustang 1	43	22	65
4	Santa Clara 1	Santa Clara 1	42	26	68
5	Cardinal	Cardinal	29	47	76
6	Otters 1	Otters 1	39	52	91
7	UC Davis 1	UC Davis 1	43	63	106
8	UC Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	61	68	129
9	Berkeley 2	Berkeley 2	70	64	134
10	Berkeley 4	Berkeley 4	90	69	159
11	Otters 2	Otters 2	86	87	173
12	Santa Clara 2	Santa Clara 2	66	127	193
13	Berkeley 3	Berkeley 3	104	90	194
14	Mustang 2	Mustang 2	108	91	199
15	UC Davis 2	UC Davis 2	115	118	233

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT
Cardinal	Cardinal	2	3	5	1	5	2	3	8	29
Keelhaulers	Keelhaulers	1	4	2	3	11	3	1	9	34
Berkeley 1	Berkeley 1	4	9	4	4	7	8	2	1	39
Otters 1	Otters 1	7	1	8	2	4	1	5	11	39
Santa Clara 1	Santa Clara 1	9	2	6	6	2	7	6	4	42
UC Davis 1	UC Davis 1	3	6	9	5	1	6	10	3	43
Mustang 1	Mustang 1	6	5	1	7	6	9	4	5	43
UC Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	5	8	3	10	12	5	DSQ	2	61
Santa Clara 2	Santa Clara 2	10	10	10	8	3	11	8	6	66
Berkeley 2	Berkeley 2	8	7	7	9	8	15	9	7	70
Otters 2	Otters 2	15	14	12	11	9	4	11	10	86
Berkeley 4	Berkeley 4	11	11	11	12	13	13	7	12	90
Berkeley 3	Berkeley 3	12	12	13	14	14	14	12	13	104
Mustang 2	Mustang 2	13	13	15	13	10	12	DNS	DNS	108
UC Davis 2	UC Davis 2	14	15	14	15	15	10	DNS	DNS	115

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT
Mustang 1	Mustang 1	8	3	2	2	2	2	1	2	22
Berkeley 1	Berkeley 1	1	4	1	1	4	4	7	1	23
Keelhaulers	Keelhaulers	3	1	3	4	3	5	2	5	26
Santa Clara 1	Santa Clara 1	4	2	4	3	1	3	6	3	26
Cardinal	Cardinal	7	7	5	7	11	1	5	4	47
Otters 1	Otters 1	5	5	8	5	12	7	3	7	52
UC Davis 1	UC Davis 1	2	11	9	9	9	9	4	10	63
Berkeley 2	Berkeley 2	6	6	6	10	5	11	11	9	64
UC Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	9	10	7	6	7	8	13	8	68
Berkeley 4	Berkeley 4	10	9	11	8	10	6	9	6	69
Otters 2	Otters 2	11	12	12	13	6	10	12	11	87
Berkeley 3	Berkeley 3	13	8	13	12	8	13	10	13	90
Mustang 2	Mustang 2	12	13	10	11	13	12	8	12	91
UC Davis 2	UC Davis 2	14	14	14	14	14	DNS	DNS	DNS	118
Santa Clara 2	Santa Clara 2	DNS	DSQ	DNS	DNS	15	DNS	DNS	DNS	127

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Berkeley 1 Berkeley 1	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Berkeley 2 Berkeley 2	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Berkeley 3 Berkeley 3	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Berkeley 4 Berkeley 4	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Mustang 2 Mustang 2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Otters 2 Otters 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Cardinal Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
UC Davis 1 UC Davis 1	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
UC Davis 2 UC Davis 2	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471
UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Berkeley 1 Berkeley 1	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Berkeley 2 Berkeley 2	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Berkeley 3 Berkeley 3	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Berkeley 4 Berkeley 4	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Mustang 2 Mustang 2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Otters 2 Otters 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Cardinal Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
UC Davis 1 UC Davis 1	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
UC Davis 2 UC Davis 2	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471
UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33

Conditions — 02/26/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 31°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1011.9 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Berkeley — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Berkeley in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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