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Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 47 46 93
2 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 54 42 96
3 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 54 55 109
4 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 36 87 123
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 83 55 138
6 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 84 70 154
7 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 94 67 161
8 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 108 104 212
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 108 112 220
10 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 102 123 225
11 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 128 134 262
12 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 136 142 278
13 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz 149 146 295
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 1 1 5 1 5 3 1 7 2 4 1 1 4 36 Adam Pokras '14
Cienna Patmont '12
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 5 7 6 3 3 9 2 1 1 2 5 2 1 47 William Peterson '11
Tahnee Allman '12
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 3 2 9 6 1 1 4 8 4 1 8 5 2 54 Hannah Tuson-Turner '11
Hanne Nagatani '13
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 7 5 4 4 2 2 3 6 3 5 4 3 6 54 Jack Porter '11
Christopher Huang '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 10 4 1 11 8 7 9 5 7 6 6 4 5 83 Stephen Lue '12 [1-13]
Erik Samuels '13 [1-10]
Daniel Kivlovitz '12 [11-13]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 2 11 3 10 4 4 7 4 9 10 3 6 11 84 Kelsey Rupp '12
Maggie Nolting '14
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 4 8 10 13 7 5 10 3 5 8 11 7 3 94 Matt Wenner '12
Ana-Melissa Kea '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 8 9 7 9 6 6 8 9 13 7 2 9 9 102 Alicia Bernhard '13
Marie Mclellan-Heck '11
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 9 6 8 5 12 12 5 2 8 13 10 8 10 108 Bryan Rust '11
Charles Hartman '13
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 11 10 2 2 11 8 6 10 6 12 12 10 8 108 Thomas Maher '12 [1-13]
Francesca Delle Cese '12 [1-4, 9-13]
Margaret Kaiserman '14 [5-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 6 3 11 7 13 13 13 11 11 9 7 11 13 128 Erika Vranizan '12
Debbi Kenote '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 12 13 13 12 10 10 12 13 10 3 9 12 7 136 John Olson '14
Vincent Voong '12
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz 13 12 12 8 9 11 11 12 12 11 13 13 12 149 Connor Bescos '11
Mike Mccarthy '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 9 1 2 3 1 3 3 5 5 1 5 3 1 42 Rex Cameron '12
Colin Kincaid '14
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 3 4 3 2 4 1 1 3 4 3 4 2 12 46 Zachary Hester '10
Laura Hughes '14
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 1 3 1 4 3 5 4 1 7 8 7 9 2 55 Madeline Kennedy '14
Lani Johnson '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 8 5 4 1 2 6 6 8 2 4 2 4 3 55 Cameron Hutcheson '14
Alexander Kraebel '11
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 7 6 8 5 10 2 5 2 1 2 1 11 7 67 Michael Hanson '12
Taylor Nidds '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 6 2 13 9 9 4 2 6 3 7 3 1 5 70 Mallory Schluter '14
Margaret Bobbin '13
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 2 7 5 7 6 7 7 4 6 12 8 6 10 87 Craig Schifferns '12 [1-10]
Allen Sterling '14 [11-13]
Lindsay Stewart '13 [1-10]
Polly Massaro '11 [11-13]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 5 12 6 8 5 11 9 9 9 5 9 10 6 104 Erik Lund '14 [1-13]
Christine Gorney '11 [1-10]
Margaret Kaiserman '14 [11-13]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 4 9 11 10 8 8 8 10 8 11 12 5 8 112 Peter Mcgrath '13
Sara Welsh '12
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 10 8 7 11 7 9 10 12 13 9 10 13 4 123 Brooke Sharp '11
Jennifer Lyons '12
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 12 10 9 6 11 13 11 7 11 6 13 12 13 134 Ashley Vincent '12
Shelby Allman '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 11 13 12 12 13 10 13 13 10 10 6 8 11 142 Sean Patno '11
Charlie Davidson '13
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz 13 11 10 13 12 12 12 11 12 13 11 7 9 146 Jean Rutledge '13 [1-13]
Kimberley Cohan '14 [1-10]
Anne-Marie Harrison '13 [11-13]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang1133557799111113
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 122446688101012121
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 233557799111113132
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 344668810101212113
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 455779911111313224
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 166881010121211335
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 277991111131322446
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters88101012121133557
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 199111113132244668
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 210101212113355779
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz111113132244668810
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 11212113355779911
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 2131322446688101012

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang22446688101012121
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 133557799111113132
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 244668810101212113
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 355779911111313224
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 466881010121211335
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 177991111131322446
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 288101012121133557
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters99111113132244668
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 110101212113355779
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2111113132244668810
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz1212113355779911
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1131322446688101012
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 21133557799111113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Thomas Maher '12 [1-13] Francesca Delle Cese '12 [1-4, 9-13]
Margaret Kaiserman '14 [5-8]
Mustang Erik Lund '14 [1-13] Christine Gorney '11 [1-10]
Margaret Kaiserman '14 [11-13]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Jack Porter '11 Christopher Huang '12
Anteaters Rex Cameron '12 Colin Kincaid '14
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Alicia Bernhard '13 Marie Mclellan-Heck '11
UC San Diego 1 Brooke Sharp '11 Jennifer Lyons '12
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego John Olson '14 Vincent Voong '12
UC San Diego 2 Sean Patno '11 Charlie Davidson '13
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Connor Bescos '11 Mike Mccarthy '14
UC Santa Cruz Jean Rutledge '13 [1-13] Kimberley Cohan '14 [1-10]
Anne-Marie Harrison '13 [11-13]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii William Peterson '11 Tahnee Allman '12
Rainbows 1 Zachary Hester '10 Laura Hughes '14
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Adam Pokras '14 Cienna Patmont '12
Rainbows 2 Craig Schifferns '12 [1-10]
Allen Sterling '14 [11-13]		 Lindsay Stewart '13 [1-10]
Polly Massaro '11 [11-13]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Matt Wenner '12 Ana-Melissa Kea '13
Rainbows 3 Michael Hanson '12 Taylor Nidds '13
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Hannah Tuson-Turner '11 Hanne Nagatani '13
Rainbows 4 Madeline Kennedy '14 Lani Johnson '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Stephen Lue '12 [1-13] Erik Samuels '13 [1-10]
Daniel Kivlovitz '12 [11-13]
Trojans 1 Cameron Hutcheson '14 Alexander Kraebel '11
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kelsey Rupp '12 Maggie Nolting '14
Trojans 2 Mallory Schluter '14 Margaret Bobbin '13
Western Washington University Western Washington University Bryan Rust '11 Charles Hartman '13
Vikings 1 Peter Mcgrath '13 Sara Welsh '12
Western Washington University Western Washington University Erika Vranizan '12 Debbi Kenote '13
Vikings 2 Ashley Vincent '12 Shelby Allman '13

Conditions — 01/22/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 73°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.1 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From E (80°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn · E 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hawaii: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hawaii by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Hawaii, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →