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Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 163
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 234
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 254
4 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 255
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 291
6 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 436
7 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 443
8 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 476
9 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 527
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 1 11 2 1 4 11 1 1 1 4 9 5 14 1 1 1 1 8 77 Scott Hoffmann '14
Jill Fattibene '14
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 7 2 3 5 7 4 10 2 3 5 5 7 4 5 6 4 4 3 86 Brady Stagg '14
Chloe Constants '14
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 3 3 9 4 2 6 2 7 2 7 15 9 10 3 12 2 2 1 99 George Prieto '13
Elizabeth Morrison '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 4 7 6 15 1 1 4 10 10 3 1 6 5 7 2 6 9 2 99 Kelly Crane '11
Katelynn Yonce '12
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 2 14 1 9 3 9 8 9 8 11 4 1 1 6 9 5 3 15 118 Amanda Taselaar '14 [1-9]
Lauren Burke '12 [10-18]
Kelly Meyering '13 [1-9]
Merritt Moran '14 [10-18]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 9 1 4 2 6 8 13 11 11 1 8 4 8 4 5 13 6 12 126 Wick Dudley '12
Nicole Deangeli '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 10 5 5 6 9 3 6 5 13 8 2 17 11 9 3 8 8 7 135 Arielle Delisser '14
Camille Conover '14
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 17 12 8 3 11 7 12 13 9 6 7 8 2 2 4 3 7 5 136 Michael Schalka '13 [1-9]
Matthew Gowell '14 [10-18]
Mckenzie Stough '13 [1-9]
Genevieve Burgoyne '14 [10-18]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 6 15 12 10 5 5 5 8 6 10 6 11 6 14 7 11 15 4 156 Connor Timmins '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 12 8 17 8 8 13 3 4 12 2 12 2 3 8 8 OCS 13 13 165 Ainsley Thomson '13
Marina Carlson '12
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners A 8 17 7 16 15 2 16 3 5 9 3 13 13 13 10 7 11 6 174 Kevin Reilly '11
Samantha Sofge '14
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers B 5 16 13 12 18 17 9 15 7 17 11 14 7 12 13 12 5 14 217 Jeff Markarian '14
Andrew Haggerty '14
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers A 11 6 10 7 12 18 7 17 15 15 10 16 17 17 18 10 10 10 226 Scott Lubliner '13
Laura O'Brien '14
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 15 10 16 14 14 14 15 12 14 16 13 12 9 10 17 9 12 11 233 William Pilling '11
Kelsi Schoenrock '12
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 13 13 18 11 16 16 11 16 16 13 16 3 16 15 11 14 16 9 243 Christina Johns '13
Marina Reppucci '12
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 18 9 14 18 17 12 17 14 4 12 14 10 12 11 15 15 17 17 246 John O'Riordan '12
Dan Canziani '14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners B 16 18 15 13 13 10 14 6 18 14 17 15 15 18 14 16 14 16 262 Alex Wood '13
Marie Morrow '14
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 14 4 11 17 10 15 18 18 17 18 18 18 18 16 16 17 18 18 281 Justin Papkee '13
Alexander Avery '12
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams111111111111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas222222222222222222
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen333333333333333333
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners444444444444444444
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen555555555555555555
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers666666666666666666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs777777777777777777
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers999999999999999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks888888888888888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams101010101010101010101010101010101010
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas111111111111111111111111111111111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen121212121212121212121212121212121212
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners131313131313131313131313131313131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen141414141414141414141414141414141414
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers151515151515151515151515151515151515
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs161616161616161616161616161616161616
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers181818181818181818181818181818181818
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks171717171717171717171717171717171717

Conditions — 03/26/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 29°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From NNW (341°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1018.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn · NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →