North 3

HostSouthern Cal
Date03/24/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	11	9	20
2	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	15	16	31
3	Santa Clara University	Broncos	22	16	38
4	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters 1	22	27	49
5	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	31	38	69
6	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	42	30	72
7	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters 2	45	56	101
8	University of California at Davis	Aggies	54	47	101
9	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	52	59	111
10	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 1	39	78	117
11	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	63	57	120
12	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 2	78	61 MRP	139 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Stanford University	Cardinal	4	1	1	3	1	1	11	Michael Dahl '15 Katie Riklin '13
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	3	2	2	2	2	4	15	Travis Benton '14 Sarah Adams '13
Santa Clara University	Broncos	1	3	4	5	4	5	22	Brandon Wood '14 Katie Everett '15
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters 1	5	5	5	1	3	3	22	Zachary Haney '11 Mark Hurdle '13
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	2	4	7	4	5	9	31	Erik Lund '14 Rosie Bubb '13
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 1	7	6	3	11	6	6	39	Tommy Pastalka '13 Jean Rutledge '13
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	6	8	9	8	9	2	42	William Antrobus '15 Nevin Garcia '12
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters 2	8	7	6	9	7	8	45	Charles Shane '13 Laura Sartori '13
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	9	10	8	7	8	10	52	Riley Silberman '15 Michael Midgley '15
University of California at Davis	Aggies	11	9	11	6	10	7	54	Karisa Chapa '14 Jessica Brown '14
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	10	11	10	10	11	11	63	Saul Rosen '15 Lauren Savett '14
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 2	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	78	Ian Spilman '15 [1-2] Alex Verdoia '15 [3-6] Matthew Kunnari '12 [1-2] Amr Amr '15 [3-6]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Stanford University	Cardinal	2	2	1	1	2	1	9	Molly Mckinney '14 Kaitlyn Baab '15
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	1	1	2	2	3	7	16	Megan Hayes '13 Elizabeth Felando '13
Santa Clara University	Broncos	3	3	3	4	1	2	16	John Connor Bathen '14 Daniel Marks '14
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters 1	4	7	4	3	6	3	27	Hanna Miller '15 Samantha Ortega '13
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	6	4	6	5	5	4	30	Eric Johnson '14 Jared Jawad '13
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	7	8	8	6	4	5	38	Shaun Prestridge '13 Kristen Schlotman '13
University of California at Davis	Aggies	8	6	7	7	9	10	47	Ryan Wilkerson '14 Ryan Lee '12
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters 2	11	9	9	8	10	9	56	Caitiln Westemeier '11 [1-2, 5-6] Christina Stege '14 [3-4] Martin Martchovsky '12 [1-2, 5-6] David Macko '14 [3-4]
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	9	11	11	10	8	8	57	Kelly Goodman '14 Janice Wondolleck '15
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	10	10	10	11	7	11	59	Alexander Webster '15 Rose Hendrix '15
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 2	5	5	5	9	11	6	61 MRP	Andrew Cowley '12 [1-2] Mike Mccarthy '14 [3-6] Mike Mccarthy '14 [1-2] Matthew Kunnari '12 [3-6]
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 1	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	78	Ian Spilman '15 Emma Shaw '14

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	24	24	24	24	24	24
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	23	23	23	23	23	23
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	100	100	100	100	100	100
California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1	11	11	11	11	11	11
California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2	12	12	12	12	12	12
Santa Clara University Broncos	19	19	19	19	19	19
Stanford University Cardinal	99	99	99	99	99	99
University of California at Davis Aggies	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 1	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 2	34	34	34	34	34	34

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	24	24	24	24	24	24
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	23	23	23	23	23	23
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	100	100	100	100	100	100
California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1	11	11	11	11	11	11
California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2	12	12	12	12	12	12
Santa Clara University Broncos	19	19	19	19	19	19
Stanford University Cardinal	99	99	99	99	99	99
University of California at Davis Aggies	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 1	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 2	34	34	34	34	34	34

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Erik Lund '14	Rosie Bubb '13
Mustang	Shaun Prestridge '13	Kristen Schlotman '13
California Maritime Academy	William Antrobus '15	Nevin Garcia '12
Keelhaulers 1	Eric Johnson '14	Jared Jawad '13
California Maritime Academy	Riley Silberman '15	Michael Midgley '15
Keelhaulers 2	Alexander Webster '15	Rose Hendrix '15
California State University Monterey Bay	Zachary Haney '11	Mark Hurdle '13
Otters 1	Hanna Miller '15	Samantha Ortega '13
California State University Monterey Bay	Charles Shane '13	Laura Sartori '13
Otters 2	Caitiln Westemeier '11 [1-2, 5-6] Christina Stege '14 [3-4]	Martin Martchovsky '12 [1-2, 5-6] David Macko '14 [3-4]
Santa Clara University	Brandon Wood '14	Katie Everett '15
Broncos	John Connor Bathen '14	Daniel Marks '14
Stanford University	Michael Dahl '15	Katie Riklin '13
Cardinal	Molly Mckinney '14	Kaitlyn Baab '15
University of California at Berkeley	Travis Benton '14	Sarah Adams '13
Golden Bears 1	Megan Hayes '13	Elizabeth Felando '13
University of California at Berkeley	Saul Rosen '15	Lauren Savett '14
Golden Bears 2	Kelly Goodman '14	Janice Wondolleck '15
University of California at Davis	Karisa Chapa '14	Jessica Brown '14
Aggies	Ryan Wilkerson '14	Ryan Lee '12
University of California at Santa Cruz	Tommy Pastalka '13	Jean Rutledge '13
Banana Slug's 1	Ian Spilman '15	Emma Shaw '14
University of California at Santa Cruz	Ian Spilman '15 [1-2] Alex Verdoia '15 [3-6]	Matthew Kunnari '12 [1-2] Amr Amr '15 [3-6]
Banana Slug's 2	Andrew Cowley '12 [1-2] Mike Mccarthy '14 [3-6]	Mike Mccarthy '14 [1-2] Matthew Kunnari '12 [3-6]

Conditions — 03/24/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 8.3 kn

Gusts to 14.6 kn

From S (181°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1014.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Southern Cal: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.30 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu