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Gull Gust 2016

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 19 18 37
2 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 19 33 52
3 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 41 24 65
4 Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 37 43 80
5 St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 49 47 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 1 1 4 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 19 Vidar Minkovsky '18 [1, 3, 5-11]
Micayla Beyer '19 [2, 4]
Micayla Beyer '19 [1, 3, 5-11]
Vidar Minkovsky '18 [2, 4]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 2 19 Nicholas Brady '19
Ashley Black '17
Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 3 5 3 2 3 4 2 2 5 5 3 37 Ian Harrison '16 [1-11]
Matthew Bovard '17 [1-6]
Sarah Chase '16 [7-11]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 4 3 5 3 5 3 4 3 4 3 4 41 Nathan Thompson '17
Tina Nassehi '17
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 49 Jack Cooper '18 [1-11]
No Show [1-8]
Kelsey Cumiskey '19 [9-11]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 18 James Gilmore Iii '19
No Show
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 2 3 4 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 24 Samuel Haksteen '17 [1-11]
Lars Sobieski '19 [1-8]
Ben Fosbaugh '17 [9-11]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 3 2 1 2 2 1 4 5 5 4 4 33 Benjamin Hayes '16 [1-11]
Katherine Roberts '18 [1-8]
Erica Vandeveer '17 [9-11]
Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 5 4 2 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 43 Rachel Weitman '16 [1-11]
Molly Deckers '18 [1-6]
Simon Timmerman '16 [7-11]
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 5 47 Barnabas Holleran '18
Madeline Edwards '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.450+0.45
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers7766554499
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Seagulls5544998877
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies6677889944
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves4455667788
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8899445566

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers7766554499
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Seagulls5544998877
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies6677889944
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves4455667788
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8899445566
School / Team SkipperCrew
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Vidar Minkovsky '18 [1, 3, 5-11]
Micayla Beyer '19 [2, 4]		 Micayla Beyer '19 [1, 3, 5-11]
Vidar Minkovsky '18 [2, 4]
Seawolves James Gilmore Iii '19 No Show
Salisbury University Salisbury University Ian Harrison '16 [1-11] Matthew Bovard '17 [1-6]
Sarah Chase '16 [7-11]
Seagulls Rachel Weitman '16 [1-11] Molly Deckers '18 [1-6]
Simon Timmerman '16 [7-11]
St. John's College St. John's College Jack Cooper '18 [1-11] No Show [1-8]
Kelsey Cumiskey '19 [9-11]
Johnnies Barnabas Holleran '18 Madeline Edwards '19
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Nathan Thompson '17 Tina Nassehi '17
Retrievers Samuel Haksteen '17 [1-11] Lars Sobieski '19 [1-8]
Ben Fosbaugh '17 [9-11]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Nicholas Brady '19 Ashley Black '17
Hokies Benjamin Hayes '16 [1-11] Katherine Roberts '18 [1-8]
Erica Vandeveer '17 [9-11]

Conditions — 04/30/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1022.3 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.1 kn
avg  ·  max 3.5 kn
Gusts to 10.5 kn
From WSW (257°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1022.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 5 kn · SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Salisbury: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salisbury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Salisbury: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →