Stony Brook Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 7 9 16
2 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 18 9 27
3 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 24 19 43
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 20 27 47
5 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 24 26 50
6 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 34 37 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 1 1 1 2 1 7 Vidar Minkovsky '18
Micayla Beyer '19
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 3 3 3 2 3 4 18 Julian Fraize '18 [1-6]
Meredith Foor '18 [1-2]
Matthew Gomez '18 [3-6]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 2 2 3 4 RAF 20 Henry Sanders '18
Kelly Brust '16
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 4 4 4 4 5 3 24 Tyler Rochon '18 [1-6]
Chris Koo '19 [1, 5-6]
Kelly Chang '17 [2-4]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 5 5 5 6 1 2 24 Danyte Reisinger '19 [1-4]
Samuel Haksteen '17 [5-6]
Samuel Haksteen '17 [1-4]
Danyte Reisinger '19 [5-6]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 6 6 6 5 6 5 34 Charles Christianson '17
Alex Ramos '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 2 1 2 1 2 9 Nicolas Carabelli '17
Jesse Stevenson '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 1 2 1 2 1 9 Brendan Brown-Mccue '16
No Show
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 3 3 4 3 3 3 19 Nathan Thompson '17
Madeline Orr '19
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 5 5 3 4 5 4 26 Peter Fiala '16
Hannah Gallagher '18
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 4 5 5 4 5 27 Alberto Rivera '16
Hannah Hauser '16
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights DNF 6 6 6 6 6 37 Nick Grant '18
Xavier Vecchio '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights446622
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers551133
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets662244
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks224466
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves113355
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange335511

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights551133
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers662244
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets113355
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks335511
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves224466
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange446622

Conditions — 04/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 999.7 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From S (176°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine3.2 hrs Humidity93% Pressure999.7 hPa Rain0.38 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · NW 20 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.25
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.35 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →