| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Oregon State University | Beavers | 5–3 |
| 2 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings | 1–5 |
| 4 |  |
Lewis and Clark College | Pioneers | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,889 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 11 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.624 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.46 ± 0.56: a typical event, more orderly than 12% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon State University Beavers | 1 | 5.82 school +0.23 | Michael Levy / Andrew Wilkinson 1.60 Thomas Hope / Natalie Shaw 1.87 Matthew Reynolds / Quanah Green 2.06 | 76% | 5–3 (62%) | −1.0 |
| 2 | University of Washington Huskies | 2 | 5.17 school −0.23 | Laura Smit / Joanna Garcia 1.29 Connor Hughes / Audrey Jacobs 2.08 Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali | 54% | 5–3 (62%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Western Washington University Vikings | 3 | 3.35 school +0.49 | Lena Captain / Grace Davidson 0.70 Kendall Kracke / Dillon Kilroy 0.99 Ezekiel Ward / Hayley Rawden 1.04 | 11% | 1–5 (17%) | +0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of Washington | 5.17 | 5.65 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 3 | Western Washington University | 3.35 | 3.83 | 1–5 | 0.7 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 1 | Oregon State University | 5.82 | 5.12 | 5–3 | 6.1 | −0.71 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena Captain | Western Washington University | 0.70 | 1.18 | 1–5 | 0.7 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Ezekiel Ward | Western Washington University | 1.04 | 1.52 | 1–5 | 0.7 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 51% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Beavers | Huskies | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State University Beavers | 1–2 | ✕ | W | L |
| University of Washington Huskies | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Beavers | Huskies | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State University Beavers | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Washington Huskies | 1–2 | L | ✕ | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Beavers | Huskies | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State University Beavers | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Washington Huskies | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Vikings | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Beavers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Beavers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Beavers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Huskies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Beavers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Huskies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Oregon State University | Beavers | Matthew Reynolds '20 Michael Levy '19 Thomas Hope '20 |
Quanah Green '18 Andrew Wilkinson '18 Natalie Shaw '20 |
|
University of Washington | Huskies | Connor Hughes '19 Hayden Potter '20 Laura Smit '18 |
Audrey Jacobs '18 Farzana Mohamedali '20 Joanna Garcia '19 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings | Ezekiel Ward '20 Kendall Kracke '20 Lena Captain '17 |
Hayley Rawden '18 Dillon Kilroy '19 Grace Davidson '17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
