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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 12 18 30
2 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 15 18 33
3 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 23 24 47
4 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 33 21 54
5 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 35 29 64
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 49 MRP 60 MRP 109 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 12 Connor Hughes '19 [1-7]
Audrey Jacobs '18 [1-6]
Joseph Leeds '18 [7]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 15 Eric Lyall '21 [1-4]
Richard Minielly '20 [5-7]
Andrew Moreno '20 [1-4]
Natalie Benoit '20 [5-7]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 3 1 6 6 4 1 2 23 Jenny Dinwoodie '19 [1-7]
Crystal Song '19 [1-4]
Erez Buyukyilmaz '21 [5-7]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 5 6 5 4 3 5 5 33 Steven Dieleman '20
Emma Reynolds '21
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 6 4 4 5 6 4 6 35 Charlotte Clark '21
Shawna Eggleston '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 5 3 3 5 6 3 49 MRP Chandler Sharp '19
Camille Ottaway '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1 2 5 4 1 3 18 Shaan Shridhar '19 [1-7]
Blake Winner '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Joseph Leeds '18 [3-4]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 4 3 1 1 3 2 4 18 Joseph Gustafson '18 [1-4]
Margaret Joba-Woodruff '20 [5-7]
Elmeri Hakkinen '18 [1-4]
Julian Deggan '19 [5-7]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 3 4 5 2 1 4 2 21 Lukas Koch '21
Hayley Woods '21
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 6 6 3 3 2 3 1 24 Aidan Chiu '21 [1-7]
Jane Velghe '19 [1-4]
Patrick Croft '18 [5-7]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 1 5 4 4 5 5 5 29 Colin Bishop '20
Hunter Arcese '19
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 5 2 6 6 DNS DNS DNS 60 MRP Chandler Sharp '19
Camille Ottaway '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 188878781818
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 28080898980
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 1878781818887
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 28989808089
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies818188878781
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings80808989

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 18080898980
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2878781818887
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 18989808089
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 2818188878781
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies80808989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings88878781818

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From ENE (59°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1016.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn · E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at British Columbia: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at British Columbia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at British Columbia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →