| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Middlebury College | Panthers | 2–7 |
| 4 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,225 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.463 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.16 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 1 | 5.74 school −0.32, home +0.38 | Alexander Bowen / Megan Laurie 2.47 Christos Karplus / Sydney Clays Stephen Poirier / Sydney Kiedeisch | 78% | 9–0 (100%) | +2.0 |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 2 | 5.62 school +0.15 | Elena Gonick / Mo Liu 1.84 Lera Anders / Jessica Friedman 1.91 Alexandra Talbot / Hailey Mckelvie | 76% | 5–4 (56%) | −1.8 |
| 3 | Middlebury College Panthers | 4 | 2.51 | Ben Arquit / Mollie Ockene Hanna Mass / Ding Pang Anna Spiro / Allie White | 9% | 2–7 (22%) | +1.2 |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3 | 3.94 school +0.15 | Matthew Galbraith / Zoe Willig Evan Robison / Rose O'Neal 1.52 Bowton Eaves / Paige Tyler | 37% | 2–7 (22%) | −1.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 5.74 | 8.74 | 9–0 | 7.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 8% |
| 3 | Middlebury College Panthers | 2.51 | 3.66 | 2–7 | 0.8 | +1.15 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3.94 | 2.77 | 2–7 | 3.3 | −1.17 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 5.62 | 4.37 | 5–4 | 6.8 | −1.26 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bowen | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 2.47 | 5.47 | 9–0 | 7.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Stephen Poirier | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.21 | 4.21 | 9–0 | 7.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Ben Arquit | Middlebury College | 1.24 | 2.39 | 2–7 | 0.8 | +1.15 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Hanna Mass | Middlebury College | 0.26 | 1.41 | 2–7 | 0.8 | +1.15 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Anna Spiro | Middlebury College | 0.39 | 1.54 | 2–7 | 0.8 | +1.15 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Evan Robison | Tufts University | 1.52 | 0.35 | 2–7 | 3.3 | −1.17 | 1.1 | 96% |
| Alexandra Talbot | Tufts University | 1.47 | 0.22 | 5–4 | 6.8 | −1.26 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Buccaneers | 2 | Panthers | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Middlebury College Panthers | 1–2 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Buccaneers | 2 | Panthers | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–3 | L | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Middlebury College Panthers | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–3 | L | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Buccaneers | 2 | Panthers | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Middlebury College Panthers | 1–2 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Panthers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | Alexander Bowen '20 Christos Karplus '21 Stephen Poirier '22 |
Megan Laurie '20 Sydney Clays '21 Sydney Kiedeisch '22 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Alexandra Talbot '22 Elena Gonick '20 Lera Anders '22 |
Hailey Mckelvie '22 Mo Liu '22 Jessica Friedman '22 |
|
Middlebury College | Panthers | Anna Spiro '21 Ben Arquit '20 Hanna Mass '21 |
Allie White '21 Mollie Ockene '21 Ding Pang '22 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Bowton Eaves '22 Evan Robison '21 Matthew Galbraith '21 |
Paige Tyler '22 Rose O'Neal '22 Zoe Willig '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
