MMA 420 Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 35
2 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 56
3 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 84
4 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 131
5 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 138
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 B 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 17 Kevin Carse '25
Kenneth Deloe '24
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 A 1 1 3 2 1 5 1 4 18 Henri Richardsson '25
Finn Weeden '25
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 B 4 2 4 1 3 1 2 2 19 Jacob Peabody '25
Edward Lenz '23
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 3 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 30 Andy Giaya '24 [1-4]
Kai Latham '24 [5-8]
Cade Lanzafame '25 [1-4]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 A 5 5 2 6 5 4 5 5 37 Nathan Hyde '25
Amelia Griffith '25
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 8 7 7 8 6 6 6 6 54 Kate Myler '23 [1-5, 8]
Ozel Yilmazel '25 [6-7]
Ozel Yilmazel '25 [1-5, 8]
Andy Giaya '24 [6-7]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs B 10 10 8 7 7 7 8 7 64 Alan Andonian '23 [1-8]
Faith Allen '23 [1-4]
Andrew Graham '24 [5-8]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 6 6 6 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 67 Colby Green '25
Olivia Demerath '23
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs A 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 8 67 Jack Sullivan '23 [1-4]
Carissa Keung '23 [5-8]
Carissa Keung '23 [1-4]
Hitesh Prakash '22 [5-8]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 7 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 71 Mitchel Soederberg '25
Maple Buescher '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11111111
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 122222222
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 233333333
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen44444444
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs55555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats66666666
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 177777777
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 288888888
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen99999999
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs1010101010101010

Conditions — 04/16/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 15.1 kn
Gusts to 32.5 kn
From SSW (205°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.1 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1011.4 hPa Rain0.35 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 18 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Maine Maritime: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.55 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Maine Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →