Little 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 11 13 24
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 18 16 34
3 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 19 16 35
4 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 28 28 56
5 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 23 35 58
6 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 35 24 59
7 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 34 36 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 1 1 2 4 1 2 11 Connor Vogel '25
Sudi Zhao '26
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 2 3 3 2 4 4 18 Michael Hanrahan '24
Dagny Scannell '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 4 2 4 1 3 5 19 Penelope Weekes '25
Robin Potter '25
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 7 7 1 3 2 3 23 James Knowlton '25
Jack Dunham '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 6 5 6 5 5 1 28 Grace Augspurger '25
Maggie Hannis '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 3 4 7 6 7 7 34 William Procter '24
Evelyn Lane '23
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 5 6 5 7 6 6 35 Andy Giaya '24 [1-6]
Ben Macneil '24 [1-3]
Shannon Fitzgerald '23 [4-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 5 1 3 2 1 1 13 Madeline Koelbel '26
Caleb Cogan '26
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 2 2 4 3 3 2 16 Walter Chiles '27
Isabelle Vagell '26
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 3 3 1 1 5 3 16 Rob Mailley '24
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 6 4 2 6 2 4 24 Kate Myler '23
Ariana Schreibman '23
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 1 5 6 4 6 6 28 Benjamin Joseph '26
Dalyan Yet '26
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 7 7 7 5 4 5 35 Adrian Whitney '26
Madalyn Migliorino '23
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 4 6 5 7 7 7 36 Olivia Fulghum '24 [1-6]
Caroline Kessler '26 [1-3]
Talia Trigg '26 [4-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths111333
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 1222444
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 2333555
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen777222
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1444666
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 2555777
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 3666111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths222444
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 1333555
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 2444666
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen111333
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1555777
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 2666111
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 3777222

Conditions — 04/29/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1015.9 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1015.9 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →