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UCSD Intrasquads

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 1 39 8 47
2 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Kraken 1 40 11 51
3 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 3 41 30 71
4 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Kraken 2 52 28 80
5 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Kraken 3 68 28 96
6 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 4 77 22 99
7 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 3 85 15 100
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 4 93 24 117
9 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 2 101 27 128
10 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 2 98 36 134
11 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 1 96 38 134
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 1 3 4 2 1 6 5 1 7 1 1 5 3 39 Andrew Keller '23 [1-10]
Sebastien Franck '23 [11-12]
Elizaveta Pertseva '23 [1-10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Kraken 1 1 2 5 2 1 2 6 5 3 3 9 1 40 Sean Lipps '24 [1-12]
Cassidy Murray '24 [1-10]
Rita Usmanova '23 [11-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 3 5 3 6 5 5 1 7 2 2 2 1 2 41 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Kraken 2 RDG RDG 3 4 4 3 2 1 10 9 3 5 52 Emma Kalway '26 [1-10]
Colin Canaday '26 [11-12]
Stella Potter '26 [1-10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Kraken 3 4 7 9 8 3 9 5 4 5 6 2 6 68 Jaime Vargas-Zuniga Areilza '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 4 7 1 1 7 2 4 4 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS 77 Drake Coy '23 [1-10]
Tobie Bloom '23 [11-12]
Tobie Bloom '23 [1-10]
Bella Valente '24 [11-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 3 10 9 DNS DNS 7 7 3 6 4 5 6 4 85
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 4 2 6 4 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS 6 4 8 DNS 93 Ryan Mccrystal '25 [1-12]
Aron Mcconnell '23 [1-10]
Grace Richie '24 [11-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 1 9 8 8 10 8 6 10 10 8 8 4 7 96 Maria Guinness '26
Elsa Engesser '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Raccoons 2 6 5 10 6 9 10 9 9 9 10 7 8 98 Jonathan Hickey '23
Rylee Hickey '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sun Gods 2 8 10 7 9 10 8 8 8 7 7 10 9 101 Michael Nodini '23 [1-10]
Ian Johnston '25 [11-12]
Emilia Dziedzic '23 [1-10]
Sophia Pless '25 [11-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Kraken 1777777777777
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Kraken 2101010101010101015151515
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Kraken 3131313131313131313131313
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 1666666666666
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 2999999999999
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 3121212121212121212121212
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 4151515151515151569696969
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 1555555555555
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 2888888888888
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 3111111111111111111111111
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 4141414141414141414141414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Kraken 17777
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Kraken 210101010
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Kraken 313131313
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 16666
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 29999
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 312121212
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Raccoons 415156969
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 15555
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 28888
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 311111111
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Sun Gods 414141414

Conditions — 06/03/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine7.4 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1013.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →