Hammer Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 12 14 26
2 Purdue University Purdue University Gold 16 25 41
3 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 22 28 50
4 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 45 18 63
5 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31 45 76
6 Purdue University Purdue University Black 43 38 81
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 12 Max Zhalilo '26
Lucas Ribeiro '27
Purdue University Purdue University Gold 1 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 16 William Bernhardt '25 [1-6]
Joseph Mowrey '25 [7-8]
Annette Wadley '26 [1-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 2 4 1 3 4 2 3 3 22 Brian Zettlemoyer '27
Ally Younkin '26
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4 3 5 4 3 4 4 4 31 Henrique Oliveira '27
Clare Corvera '27
Purdue University Purdue University Black 5 6 4 6 6 5 6 5 43 Henrik Stjernfeldt '27
Sam Faber '24
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 DNF 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 45 Luqman Waheeduddin '24
Elaina Kobal '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 1 4 1 3 1 1 2 1 14 Holden Higgins '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Natalie Manley '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Natalie Manley '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Suzanne Sokolowski '25 [3-4]
Claire Zhang '24 [7-8]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 5 3 18 Eva Paschke '25
Stella Brown '27
Purdue University Purdue University Gold 3 3 4 4 4 4 1 2 25 Mathis Destouches '25 [1-8]
Connor Lawrence '26 [1-4]
Kai Redler '25 [5-8]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 4 28 John Riordan '26
Sarah Etcher '27
Purdue University Purdue University Black 4 2 5 6 6 6 4 5 38 Silas Hokanson '26
Kellyn Bucceri '26
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 45 Andoni Christou '27
Natalie Cox '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons55113355
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 111335511
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 222446622
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish66224466
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Black33551133
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Gold44662244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons66224466
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 122446622
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles 233551133
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish11335511
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Black44662244
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Gold55113355

Conditions — 04/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1024.4 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.0 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1024.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 13 kn · NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Purdue: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.34 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Purdue by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Purdue, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →