NU Spring

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 18 20 38
2 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 27 21 48
3 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 1 31 19 50
4 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 17 45 62
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 44 23 67
6 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 2 45 46 91
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 42 50 92
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1 1 1 2 5 2 2 3 17 Greg Bittle '25 [1-8]
Lily Lupardus '27 [1-4]
Hillary Festvog '27 [5-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 3 3 4 1 1 1 3 2 18 Marina Hutzler '23 [1-8]
Rebecca Rodriguez '27 [1-4]
Nicholas Chesemore '27 [5-8]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 4 2 2 3 2 4 4 6 27 Carlos Sole '27 [1-8]
Natalie Manley '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Raymond Chen '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 1 2 5 3 5 4 7 1 4 31 Nicholas Barillari '26
Alexa Quinn '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 7 7 6 3 5 6 1 42 Azim Usmanov '27 [1-4]
Aviva Kaplan '24 [5-8]
Izzy Bider '27 [1-4]
Joey David '25 [5-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 6 6 5 7 7 3 5 5 44 John Mccalmont '27
Grace Redner '27
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 2 5 4 6 4 6 6 7 7 45 Jenna Drobny '27
Beale Hughes '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 1 1 4 1 3 2 3 2 3 19 Reed Porter '25
Matthew Back '24
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 5 3 5 2 1 1 1 2 20 Owen Lubben '24 [1-2]
George Warfel '26 [3-8]
Kate Virsik '26 [1-2]
Herbert Single '27 [3-8]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 2 2 3 1 4 4 4 1 21 Holden Higgins '24 [1-6]
Natalie Manley '24 [7-8]
Iris Badezet Delory '27 [1-2]
Claire Zhang '24 [3-4]
Mina Ivkovic '24 [5-6]
Lucas Ribeiro '27 [7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 4 1 2 4 3 2 3 4 23 River Servia '27
Megan Gottfried '27
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 7 7 4 5 5 6 5 6 45 Brady Boland '26
Max Gaytko '26
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 2 3 6 6 7 7 5 7 5 46 Sara Stortstrom '26
Holden Johansen '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 6 5 7 6 6 7 6 7 50 Sean Bascoe '27 [1-2]
Jordan Raizer '26 [3-8]
Rebeca Navarro Santos Lion '25 [1-2]
Tara Chen '25 [3-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons55555666
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 111111222
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 222222333
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines66666777
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 133333444
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 244444555
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies77777888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons66666777
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 122222333
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 233333444
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines77777888
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 144444555
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 255555666
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies11111222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Miami University Miami University Nicholas Barillari '26 Alexa Quinn '26
Red Hawks 1 Reed Porter '25 Matthew Back '24
Miami University Miami University Jenna Drobny '27 Beale Hughes '26
Red Hawks 2 Sara Stortstrom '26 Holden Johansen '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Marina Hutzler '23 [1-8] Rebecca Rodriguez '27 [1-4]
Nicholas Chesemore '27 [5-8]
Wildcats 1 Owen Lubben '24 [1-2]
George Warfel '26 [3-8]
Kate Virsik '26 [1-2]
Herbert Single '27 [3-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Azim Usmanov '27 [1-4]
Aviva Kaplan '24 [5-8]
Izzy Bider '27 [1-4]
Joey David '25 [5-8]
Wildcats 2 Sean Bascoe '27 [1-2]
Jordan Raizer '26 [3-8]
Rebeca Navarro Santos Lion '25 [1-2]
Tara Chen '25 [3-8]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Carlos Sole '27 [1-8] Natalie Manley '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Raymond Chen '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Maroons Holden Higgins '24 [1-6]
Natalie Manley '24 [7-8]
Iris Badezet Delory '27 [1-2]
Claire Zhang '24 [3-4]
Mina Ivkovic '24 [5-6]
Lucas Ribeiro '27 [7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan John Mccalmont '27 Grace Redner '27
Wolverines River Servia '27 Megan Gottfried '27
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Greg Bittle '25 [1-8] Lily Lupardus '27 [1-4]
Hillary Festvog '27 [5-8]
Tommies Brady Boland '26 Max Gaytko '26

Conditions — 05/04/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From SE (125°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1012.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn* · N 10 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.23
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →