| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
McGill University | Redbirds | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Massachusetts at Amherst | Minutemen | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
Amherst College | Mammoths | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 27,404 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.382 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 88% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 1 | 4.07 school +0.33, home +0.37 | Griffin Stolp / Amelia Griffith Jane Marvin / Taber Allen Nathan Hyde / Nicholas Paulu 1.08 5–1 William Ries / Nicholas Paulu 3–0 | 78% | 8–1 (89%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | McGill University Redbirds | 2 | 3.72 | Genevieve Lau / Katie Bowie Curtis Mallory / Eloïse Mouille Andrew Richards / Axel Grundberg Rydmark | 69% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.8 |
| 3 | University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen | 4 | 1.80 school +0.21 | Marshall Rodes 0.80 Aoife Mahoney / Evelyn Buxton Maisey Jobson | 19% | 3–6 (33%) | +1.2 |
| 4 | Amherst College Mammoths | 3 | 2.41 | Emily Wykoff / Lucy Li Adrian Whitney / Christie Nguyen James Knowlton / Spencer Kaufman | 33% | 0–9 (0%) | −3.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine Maritime Academy | 4.07 | 4.97 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +0.90 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 3 | University of Massachusetts at Amherst | 1.80 | 2.62 | 3–6 | 1.8 | +0.82 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2 | McGill University | 3.72 | 4.25 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 4 | Amherst College | 2.41 | -0.59 | 0–9 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Ries | Maine Maritime Academy | 1.24 | 4.24 | 3–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| Marshall Rodes | University of Massachusetts at Amherst | 0.80 | 1.62 | 3–6 | 1.8 | +0.82 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Aoife Mahoney | University of Massachusetts at Amherst | 1.14 | 1.96 | 3–6 | 1.8 | +0.82 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Maisey Jobson | University of Massachusetts at Amherst | -0.55 | 0.27 | 3–6 | 1.8 | +0.82 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Nathan Hyde | Maine Maritime Academy | 1.08 | 1.69 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.61 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Genevieve Lau | McGill University | 1.47 | 2.00 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Curtis Mallory | McGill University | 0.72 | 1.25 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Andrew Richards | McGill University | 1.07 | 1.61 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Emily Wykoff | Amherst College | 1.37 | -1.63 | 0–9 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.7 | >99% |
| Adrian Whitney | Amherst College | -0.39 | -3.39 | 0–9 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.7 | >99% |
| James Knowlton | Amherst College | 0.97 | -2.03 | 0–9 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Mariners | Redbirds | Minutemen | Mammoths | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| McGill University Redbirds | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Amherst College Mammoths | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Mariners | Redbirds | Minutemen | Mammoths | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| McGill University Redbirds | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Amherst College Mammoths | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Mariners | Redbirds | Minutemen | Mammoths | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| McGill University Redbirds | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Amherst College Mammoths | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redbirds | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Minutemen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mammoths | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Minutemen | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Redbirds | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mammoths | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Redbirds | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mammoths | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Redbirds | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Minutemen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mammoths | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Redbirds | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mammoths | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Redbirds | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Minutemen | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mammoths | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redbirds | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Minutemen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mammoths | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Minutemen | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Redbirds | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mammoths | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Redbirds | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Minutemen | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mammoths | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | Griffin Stolp '27 Jane Marvin '28 Nathan Hyde '25 William Ries '26 |
Amelia Griffith '25 Taber Allen '27 Nicholas Paulu '25 |
|
McGill University | Redbirds | Andrew Richards '28 Curtis Mallory '28 Genevieve Lau '25 |
Axel Grundberg Rydmark '27 Eloïse Mouille '28 Katie Bowie '27 |
|
University of Massachusetts at Amherst | Minutemen | Aoife Mahoney '27 Maisey Jobson '26 Marshall Rodes '26 |
Evelyn Buxton '26 |
|
Amherst College | Mammoths | Adrian Whitney '26 Emily Wykoff '26 James Knowlton '25 |
Christie Nguyen '25 Lucy Li '28 Spencer Kaufman '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
