| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 27,096 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 28 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.370 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 11.67 | 14.67 | 7–0 | 5.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 21% |
| 4 | University of Pennsylvania | 10.08 | 10.54 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.46 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 11.04 | 11.18 | 5–2 | 4.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2 | Georgetown University | 11.27 | 11.11 | 5–2 | 5.2 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 8 | Fordham University | 8.46 | 8.27 | 1–6 | 1.2 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 6 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.50 | 9.11 | 2–5 | 2.5 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 5 | Cornell University | 10.30 | 9.73 | 3–4 | 3.7 | −0.57 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 7 | Old Dominion University | 8.78 | 8.14 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.64 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.45 | 3.59 | 5–2 | 4.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Landon Cormie | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.31 | 3.44 | 5–2 | 4.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Lucas Thress | Fordham University | 2.72 | 2.52 | 1–6 | 1.2 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Winborne Majette | Cornell University | 3.31 | 2.74 | 3–4 | 3.7 | −0.57 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Diogo Silva | Old Dominion University | 2.89 | 2.25 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −0.64 | 0.2 | 86% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Hoyas | Seahawks | Quakers | Red | Statesmen | Monarchs | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–5 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
