| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 4–2 |
| 2 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Sea Aggies | 2–4 |
| 3 |  |
Rice University | Owls | 2–4 |
| 3 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 2–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 8 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.694 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Texas Longhorns | 1 | 3.98 school −0.20, home +0.36 | Matias Martin / Reema Nannapaneni 2.27 1–1 Logan Downey / Eric Li 1.28 1–1 Dennis Kostjuhin / Ria Chhabra 0.50 1–1 Matias Martin / Kate Lyon 2.17 2–0 Elizabeth Cleaves / Reema Nannapaneni 0.80 2–0 Dennis Kostjuhin / Eric Li 0.53 2–0 | 86% | 3–1 (75%) | −0.5 |
| 2 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies | 2 | 2.25 school −0.08 | Blake Polsen / Jake Boss Ethan Polsen / Colton Oliver 1.18 Macie Bettis / Evelyn Chase 0.00 | 54% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.1 |
| 3 | Rice University Owls | 3 | 2.14 school −0.05 | Lewis Forrest / Clara Beinhocker 0.79 Leo Marek / Naayaa Mehta 0.71 Oliver Zhu / Lindsey Frost | 39% | 2–4 (33%) | −0.4 |
| 3 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 4 | 2.02 school −0.17 | Korbin Bendele / Menya Bird 1.98 Canaan Cortes / Elisabeth Ritenour -0.40 Drew Gourley / Jeffrey Souto 0.59 1–1 Drew Gourley / Jacob Sadler 0.54 1–1 | 28% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Texas A&M University | 2.02 | 3.22 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.20 | 0.8 | 31% |
| 2 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 2.25 | 2.12 | 1–1 | 1.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 3 | Rice University | 2.14 | 1.85 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 1 | University of Texas | 3.98 | 3.21 | 3–1 | 3.5 | −0.78 | 0.3 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korbin Bendele | Texas A&M University | 1.98 | 3.18 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.20 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Drew Gourley | Texas A&M University | 0.59 | 1.79 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.20 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Canaan Cortes | Texas A&M University | -0.40 | 0.80 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.20 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Lewis Forrest | Rice University | 0.79 | 0.50 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Leo Marek | Rice University | 0.71 | 0.43 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Oliver Zhu | Rice University | 0.60 | 0.31 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Matias Martin | University of Texas | 2.27 | 1.49 | 3–1 | 3.5 | −0.78 | 0.3 | 91% |
| Dennis Kostjuhin | University of Texas | 0.50 | -0.28 | 3–1 | 3.5 | −0.78 | 0.3 | 91% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Texas A&M University | University of Texas | 10% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | Rice University | 54% | |
| 1 | 4 | University of Texas | Rice University | 83% | |
| 1 | 6 | Texas A&M University | Rice University | 46% | upset |
| 2 | 8 | University of Texas | Rice University | 83% | |
| 2 | 9 | University of Texas | Texas A&M University | 91% | |
| 2 | 10 | Rice University | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 47% | upset |
| 2 | 12 | Rice University | Texas A&M University | 54% |
| Team | Rec. | Longhorns | Aggies | Owls | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | ✕ | L | W | L |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Rice University Owls | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 2–1 | W | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Longhorns | Aggies | Owls | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Texas Longhorns | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Rice University Owls | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Sea Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Owls | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Sea Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Longhorns | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Owls | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Sea Aggies | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Longhorns | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Owls | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Sea Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Owls | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Owls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Owls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Dennis Kostjuhin '27 Elizabeth Cleaves '29 Logan Downey '29 Matias Martin '27 |
Ria Chhabra '27 Eric Li '29 Reema Nannapaneni '27 Kate Lyon '28 |
|
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Sea Aggies | Blake Polsen '29 Ethan Polsen '27 Macie Bettis '28 |
Jake Boss '28 Colton Oliver '28 Evelyn Chase '28 |
|
Rice University | Owls | Leo Marek '26 Lewis Forrest '29 Oliver Zhu '28 |
Naayaa Mehta '27 Clara Beinhocker '29 Lindsey Frost '26 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Canaan Cortes '26 Drew Gourley '27 Korbin Bendele '29 |
Elisabeth Ritenour '27 Jeffrey Souto '27 Jacob Sadler '27 Menya Bird '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
