Thomas H. Stafford Jr. Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 4 7 11
2 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 7 6 13
3 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 13 10 23
4 Auburn University Auburn University Tigers 19 10 29
5 University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 10 22 32
6 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 20 21 41
7 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 24 20 44
8 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 34 MRP 32 MRP 66 MRP
9 Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 24 48 MRP 72 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 1 2 4 Adam Nilsson '29
Eleanor Crandall '29
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 3 3 1 7 Luke Adams '28
Taylor Bulwinkle '28
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 4 2 4 10 Brady Mayer '29
Eloise Weiss '28
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 6 4 3 13 Jack Wigmore '27 [1-3]
Ava Wietlisbach '28 [1-2]
Brittany Engel '29 [3]
Auburn University Auburn University Tigers 5 6 8 19 Evan Hinchley '29
Will Michel '29
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 8 7 5 20 Caswell Kern '26
Olivia Anderson '29
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 7 8 9 24 Kayla Johnson '29 [1-2]
Hannah Pomeranzeva '28 [3]
Hannah Pomeranzeva '28 [1-2]
Colin Carter '29 [3]
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 9 9 6 24 Jim Wang '27
Ken Xia '29
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 2 5 7 34 MRP Henry Elmore '29
Theresa Ziehl '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 1 4 1 6 Kaden Kirby '29
Madeleine Harris '29
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 2 3 7 Marc Hauenstein '27
Joseph Morgan '27
Auburn University Auburn University Tigers 3 5 2 10 Kaivo Kadai '29
Lydia Rotta '26
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 5 1 4 10 Zohar Almani '28
Kay Lyon '27
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 6 8 6 20 Runyon Tyler '26
Lilly Copplestone '29
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 7 7 7 21 Ben Kearney '26
Alexis Shaw '28
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 8 6 8 22 Tessa Sperry '29
Luke Russell '26
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 4 3 5 32 MRP No Show
Naomi Schneiderman '27
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 9 9 DNF 48 MRP Taehee Kim '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Auburn UniversityAuburn University Tigers111
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers222
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats333
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils555
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels777
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack666
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks999
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Volunteers101010
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks888

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Auburn UniversityAuburn University Tigers222
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers333
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats555
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils666
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels888
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack777
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks101010
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Volunteers111
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks999

Conditions — 02/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1015.2 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From SW (236°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1015.2 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.49 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →