NorCal One-Day #4 SILVER

HostRedwood
Date11/22/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity	27	27
2	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	35	35
3	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	48	48
4	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	49	49
5	The Urban School	Varsity	50	50
6	Encinal High School	Jets	50	50
7	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	57	57
8	Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	59	59
9	Palo Alto High	Varsity	64	64
10	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	70	70
11	Los Altos High	Eagles	70 MRP	70 MRP
12	Sequoia High School	Cherokees	71	71
13	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity	89	89
14	Branson School	Bulls	89	89
15	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	90	90
16	Davis High School	Blue Devils	91	91
17	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 1	94	94
18	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	106	106
19	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	106	106
20	College Park High School	Falcons	111	111
21	Aptos High School	Mariners	124	124
22	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	125	125
23	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	128	128
24	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	132	132
25	Saratoga High School	Falcons	133 MRP	133 MRP
26	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	141	141
27	Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	154	154
28	Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	157	157
29	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 2	158	158
30	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	161	161

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity	5	1	6	7	2	6	27	Wiley Yu '18 Justin Lim '19
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	13	4	3	2	4	9	35	Peter Werner '17 Jonathan Fisher '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	3	10	9	4	14	8	48	Alexandre Testa '16 William Hale '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	6	3	4	5	15	16	49	Francis Streitman '17 Kate Hofele '17
The Urban School	Varsity	2	6	1	22	6	13	50	Anna Krylova '20 Eli Gordon '20
Encinal High School	Jets	4	15	5	6	16	4	50	Thomas Zenner '19 [1-6] Lily Imani '20 [1-2, 5] Gemma Hansen '20 [3-4, 6]
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	16	2	17	10	10	2	57	Jeremy Gillespie '17 Kate Elkort '18
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	1	5	2	13	DNF	7	59	Kate Chandler '17 [1-6] Amy Ely '16 [1-2] Peter Melrose '16 [3-4] Logan Johnson '16 [5-6]
Palo Alto High	Varsity	8	8	11	8	19	10	64	Sean Jawetz '16 Ronaldo Huang '18
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	11	7	12	21	18	1	70	Keelin Davis '17 Genna Corlett '17
Los Altos High	Eagles	14	12	10	1	1	12	70 MRP	Albert Zhao '19 Amir Tadros '19
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	9	9	14	11	7	21	71	Christian Brown '18 Gavin Bradley '18
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity	10	13	OCS	16	5	14	89	Nicholas Dorn '18 Evelyn Plam '19
Branson School	Bulls	DNF	16	15	3	21	3	89	Andrew Fisher '19 [1-3, 6] Kamila Harting '18 [4-5] Kamila Harting '18 [1-3] Sari Wisoff '18 [4-6]
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	26	11	7	18	3	25	90	Andrew Zheng '19 Thomas Samuels '17
Davis High School	Blue Devils	24	29	16	9	8	5	91	James Locker '16 [1-6] Sophia Young '20 [1-2, 5] Erica Frederickson '20 [3-4, 6]
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 1	18	22	8	14	13	19	94	Nolwenn Menard '19 [1-4] Hugo Agnola '19 [5-6] Lorenzo Baldo '18 [1-4] Nolwenn Menard '19 [5] Sebastian Westerink '19 [6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	7	18	19	25	9	28	106	Emma Figueredo '19 Lillian Rose-Wickman '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	12	23	18	12	24	17	106	Ryan Osier '18 Isabel Murrin '18
College Park High School	Falcons	19	19	22	17	12	22	111	Zack Taylor '19 [1-6] Matt St. Germain '18 [1, 3, 5] Riley Maxon '18 [2, 4, 6]
Aptos High School	Mariners	21	17	27	27	17	15	124	Isabel Andrew '16 [1-6] Madeline Miller '16 [1-3] Spencer Frawley '16 [4-6]
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	17	21	13	26	25	23	125	Quinn Donahue '16 Pilar Mcdonald '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	15	24	23	15	DNF	20	128	Griffin Chen '19 Frances Tarpey-Schwed '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	27	14	25	19	23	24	132	Will Drury '18 [1, 4] Aj Torres '19 [2, 5] Alex Pick '19 [3, 6] Aj Torres '19 [1, 4] Alex Pick '19 [2, 5] Will Drury '18 [3, 6]
Saratoga High School	Falcons	22	20	20	20	20	11	133 MRP	Lilah Foster '17 Lilah Foster '17
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	28	26	24	23	22	18	141	Noah Sanders '18 Isabel Murrin '18
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	29	28	21	24	26	26	154	Max Rodman '18 Stuart Myers '17
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	25	DNF	OCS	29	11	30	157	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Laurel Richardson '16
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 2	23	27	26	28	27	27	158	Margot Kirby '19 [1-6] Hugo Agnola '19 [1-2] Sebastian Westerink '19 [3-5] Lorenzo Baldo '18 [6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	20	25	28	DNF	28	29	161	Joe De Hemptinne '19 [1-6] Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [1-3] Nickolas Monrique '19 [4-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101	101	101	101
Berkeley High School Varsity 1	61	61	61	61	61	61
Berkeley High School Varsity 2	60	60	60	60	60	60
College Park High School Falcons	52	52	52	52	52	52
Crystal Springs Uplands School Varsity	28	28	28	28	28	28
Davis High School Blue Devils	127	127	127	127	127	127
Encinal High School Jets	57	57	57	57	57	57
International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	8	8	8	8	8	8
Los Altos High Eagles	26	26	26	26	26	26
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity 1	70	70	70	70	70	70
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity 2	72	72	72	72	72	72
Lynbrook High School Vikings	25	25	25	25	25	25
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105	105
Palo Alto High Varsity	27	27	27	27	27	27
Saratoga High School Falcons	107	107	107	107	107	107
Sequoia High School Cherokees	23	23	23	23	23	23
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2	2
Sir Francis Drake Varsity 1	96	96	96	96	96	96
Sir Francis Drake Varsity 2	64	64	64	64	64	64
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity	4	4	4	4	4	4
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity	24	24	24	24	24	24
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	134	134	134	134	134	134
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	140	140	140	140	140	140
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 4	80	80	80	80	80	80
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	81	81	81	81	81	81
Branson School Bulls	16	16	16	16	16	16
The Urban School Varsity	1	1	1	1	1	1

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Aptos High School	Mariners	Isabel Andrew '16 [1-6]	Madeline Miller '16 [1-3] Spencer Frawley '16 [4-6]
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Laurel Richardson '16
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	Max Rodman '18	Stuart Myers '17
Branson School	Bulls	Andrew Fisher '19 [1-3, 6] Kamila Harting '18 [4-5]	Kamila Harting '18 [1-3] Sari Wisoff '18 [4-6]
College Park High School	Falcons	Zack Taylor '19 [1-6]	Matt St. Germain '18 [1, 3, 5] Riley Maxon '18 [2, 4, 6]
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity	Wiley Yu '18	Justin Lim '19
Davis High School	Blue Devils	James Locker '16 [1-6]	Sophia Young '20 [1-2, 5] Erica Frederickson '20 [3-4, 6]
Encinal High School	Jets	Thomas Zenner '19 [1-6]	Lily Imani '20 [1-2, 5] Gemma Hansen '20 [3-4, 6]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	Keelin Davis '17	Genna Corlett '17
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Quinn Donahue '16	Pilar Mcdonald '19
Los Altos High	Eagles	Albert Zhao '19	Amir Tadros '19
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 1	Nolwenn Menard '19 [1-4] Hugo Agnola '19 [5-6]	Lorenzo Baldo '18 [1-4] Nolwenn Menard '19 [5] Sebastian Westerink '19 [6]
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 2	Margot Kirby '19 [1-6]	Hugo Agnola '19 [1-2] Sebastian Westerink '19 [3-5] Lorenzo Baldo '18 [6]
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	Andrew Zheng '19	Thomas Samuels '17
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	Kate Chandler '17 [1-6]	Amy Ely '16 [1-2] Peter Melrose '16 [3-4] Logan Johnson '16 [5-6]
Palo Alto High	Varsity	Sean Jawetz '16	Ronaldo Huang '18
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	Jeremy Gillespie '17	Kate Elkort '18
Saratoga High School	Falcons	Lilah Foster '17	Lilah Foster '17
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	Christian Brown '18	Gavin Bradley '18
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	Ryan Osier '18	Isabel Murrin '18
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	Noah Sanders '18	Isabel Murrin '18
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity	Nicholas Dorn '18	Evelyn Plam '19
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	Peter Werner '17	Jonathan Fisher '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Griffin Chen '19	Frances Tarpey-Schwed '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Joe De Hemptinne '19 [1-6]	Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [1-3] Nickolas Monrique '19 [4-6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	Emma Figueredo '19	Lillian Rose-Wickman '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	Francis Streitman '17	Kate Hofele '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Alexandre Testa '16	William Hale '18
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Will Drury '18 [1, 4] Aj Torres '19 [2, 5] Alex Pick '19 [3, 6]	Aj Torres '19 [1, 4] Alex Pick '19 [2, 5] Will Drury '18 [3, 6]
The Urban School	Varsity	Anna Krylova '20	Eli Gordon '20

Conditions — 11/22/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 67°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 6.8 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1015.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Redwood: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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