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PCISA Radial Singlehanded Championship

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Joseph Hou '18 61
2 Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 90
3 Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Lucas Pierce '17 91
4 Long Beach Polytechnic HS Long Beach Polytechnic HS Cameron Feves '18 101
5 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Max Mayol '19 116
6 Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Gavin Mcjones '19 134
7 Foothill Technology H.S. Foothill Technology H.S. Annika Fedde '19 159
8 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Michael Sabourin '16 175
9 Westview High School Westview High School Soenke Jordan '17 189
10 Bishop's School Bishop's School Amanda Majernik '18 191
11 Long Beach Wilson High School Long Beach Wilson High School Trent Turigliatto '18 195
12 Parker Parker Samuel Merson '18 201
13 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Jack Mcgraw '16 203
14 Westview High School Westview High School Ansgar Jordan '18 205
15 San Diego High School San Diego High School Max Karmel '17 210
16 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Taisei Hatter '19 216
17 Santa Monica High School Santa Monica High School Varsity 227
18 Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Lukas Kraak '19 233
19 Seabury Hall Seabury Hall Kai Ponting '18 276
20 Parker Parker Jeremy Mcculloch '18 283
21 Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Andrew Huang '18 301
22 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School James Ozaki '19 302
23 Coronado Islanders Coronado Islanders Owen Schafer '17 306
24 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Victoria Thompson '17 312
25 Rolling Hills Prep and Renaissance Schools Rolling Hills Prep and Renaissance Schools Cade Morris '18 315
26 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Sumner Strumph '17 321
27 Olympian High School Olympian High School Nicholas Shand '22 365
28 King Kekaulike High School King Kekaulike High School Louisa Buckingham '19 372
29 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Sean Caulfield '19 414
30 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School James (Jd) Schrady '18 416
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Joseph Hou '18 28 1 2 1 2 1 5 1 1 3 1 2 8 1 4 61
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 1 7 6 5 6 3 3 6 6 5 4 13 7 6 12 90
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Lucas Pierce '17 29 6 16 7 1 5 2 2 2 2 6 5 4 3 1 91
Long Beach Polytechnic HS Long Beach Polytechnic HS Cameron Feves '18 2 4 9 10 8 6 1 3 5 17 11 14 3 2 6 101
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Max Mayol '19 27 2 10 2 OCS 4 4 5 3 1 10 1 1 12 3 116
Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Gavin Mcjones '19 20 8 4 14 7 11 14 11 10 13 8 3 2 7 2 134
Foothill Technology H.S. Foothill Technology H.S. Annika Fedde '19 4 10 18 6 5 7 6 7 14 8 7 10 20 17 20 159
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Michael Sabourin '16 6 18 3 3 4 2 7 4 DNF 22 17 6 15 21 16 175
Westview High School Westview High School Soenke Jordan '17 7 17 8 23 15 9 8 8 7 26 9 12 13 18 9 189
Bishop's School Bishop's School Amanda Majernik '18 8 11 1 4 3 10 12 10 8 19 20 22 21 19 23 191
Long Beach Wilson High School Long Beach Wilson High School Trent Turigliatto '18 14 9 30 8 9 18 16 17 4 6 14 18 6 15 11 195
Parker Parker Samuel Merson '18 3 15 7 12 OCS 8 26 16 16 14 5 17 12 5 14 201
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Jack Mcgraw '16 5 13 14 9 13 16 19 15 15 20 25 9 11 11 8 203
Westview High School Westview High School Ansgar Jordan '18 9 24 12 13 10 17 9 18 21 4 13 8 24 13 10 205
San Diego High School San Diego High School Max Karmel '17 11 12 20 11 11 12 11 12 9 12 19 19 16 16 19 210
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Taisei Hatter '19 30 5 19 15 22 22 15 13 18 7 3 15 9 10 13 216
Santa Monica High School Santa Monica High School Varsity 22 3 13 26 16 19 28 29 17 18 2 4 19 4 7 227
Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Lukas Kraak '19 12 14 26 20 14 14 10 9 22 15 12 16 18 9 22 233
Seabury Hall Seabury Hall Kai Ponting '18 21 27 25 19 23 13 25 26 12 25 16 20 5 14 5 276
Parker Parker Jeremy Mcculloch '18 13 19 23 21 21 DNS 22 27 11 10 15 11 22 8 29 283
Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Andrew Huang '18 19 16 11 28 19 21 24 19 23 24 18 26 10 25 18 301
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School James Ozaki '19 10 21 24 18 17 23 21 21 26 11 21 21 14 29 25 302
Coronado Islanders Coronado Islanders Owen Schafer '17 15 20 21 24 12 24 20 20 20 21 22 23 29 20 15 306
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Victoria Thompson '17 17 22 5 16 26 27 27 25 19 9 26 27 23 26 17 312
Rolling Hills Prep and Renaissance Schools Rolling Hills Prep and Renaissance Schools Cade Morris '18 26 25 15 30 24 26 13 22 25 16 24 7 17 24 21 315
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Sumner Strumph '17 18 23 22 17 20 15 17 14 13 30 27 30 26 23 26 321
Olympian High School Olympian High School Nicholas Shand '22 25 29 17 25 18 20 18 24 24 28 28 25 28 28 28 365
King Kekaulike High School King Kekaulike High School Louisa Buckingham '19 23 28 28 22 25 28 23 23 27 27 23 24 25 22 24 372
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Sean Caulfield '19 24 30 27 27 27 25 29 28 28 23 30 29 30 27 30 414
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School James (Jd) Schrady '18 16 26 29 29 28 29 30 30 29 29 29 28 27 30 27 416
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
Santa Monica High SchoolSanta Monica High School Varsity180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129180129

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  30 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Joseph Hou '18Newport Harbor High School Sailors 215/152.923.92+1.0198th → 99th4.31%4.1 / 9.9
2Caden Scheiblauer '19Santa Barbara High School Dons 215/152.033.67+1.6483rd → 99th11.5<1%6.0 / 13.7
3Lucas Pierce '17Santa Barbara High School Dons 115/152.663.28+0.6294th → 99th1.94%6.1 / 11.0
4Cameron Feves '18Long Beach Polytechnic HS15/152.303.38+1.0988th → 99th5.62%6.7 / 12.5
5Max Mayol '19Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 215/152.583.40+0.8293rd → 99th3.119%7.7 / 11.4
6Gavin Mcjones '19Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 115/152.492.89+0.4192nd → 97th0.918%8.9 / 11.7
7Annika Fedde '19Foothill Technology H.S.15/151.792.52+0.7380th → 92nd2.811%10.6 / 14.7
8Michael Sabourin '16Newport Harbor High School Sailors 115/152.542.43−0.1192nd → 91st0.153%11.7 / 11.7
9Soenke Jordan '17Westview High School Wolverines 115/152.222.09−0.1487th → 84th0.150%12.6 / 12.8
10Amanda Majernik '18Bishop's School15/151.102.09+0.9961st → 84th4.912%12.7 / 17.8
11Trent Turigliatto '18Long Beach Wilson High School15/152.001.85−0.1583rd → 81st0.144%13.0 / 13.9
12Samuel Merson '18Parker Lancers 115/152.172.20+0.0385th → 86th0.054%13.4 / 13.2
13Jack Mcgraw '16Point Loma High School Pointers 115/152.132.04−0.0984th → 83rd0.055%13.5 / 13.2
14Ansgar Jordan '18Westview High School Wolverines 215/152.101.94−0.1684th → 82nd0.254%13.7 / 13.5
15Max Karmel '17San Diego High School15/151.28u2.11+0.8367th → 84th3.724%14.0 / 17.0
16Taisei Hatter '19Point Loma High School Pointers 215/151.821.76−0.0680th → 79th0.050%14.4 / 14.6
18Lukas Kraak '19Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 215/151.251.77+0.5265th → 80th1.537%15.5 / 17.0
19Kai Ponting '18Seabury Hall15/151.221.24+0.0265th → 65th0.060%18.4 / 17.2
20Jeremy Mcculloch '18Parker Lancers 215/150.861.23+0.3752nd → 65th0.748%18.9 / 18.8
21Andrew Huang '18Palo Alto High15/151.091.10+0.0061st → 61st0.069%20.1 / 17.8
22James Ozaki '19Point Loma High School Pointers 315/151.200.97−0.2365th → 57th0.374%20.1 / 17.3
23Owen Schafer '17Coronado Islanders15/151.481.07−0.4072nd → 60th1.184%20.4 / 16.1
24Victoria Thompson '17Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 115/151.370.78−0.5968th → 50th2.583%20.8 / 16.7
25Cade Morris '18Rolling Hills Prep and Renaissance Schools15/150.800.80−0.0050th → 50th0.067%21.0 / 19.0
26Sumner Strumph '17The Bay School of San Francisco15/150.860.58−0.2852nd → 41st0.572%21.4 / 18.9
27Nicholas Shand '22Olympian High School15/150.450.45+0.0035th → 35th0.084%24.3 / 20.5
28Louisa Buckingham '19King Kekaulike High School15/151.08u0.43−0.6560th → 34th3.196%24.8 / 17.7
29Sean Caulfield '19Point Loma High School Pointers 515/151.10-0.66−1.7561st → 8th20.8>99%27.6 / 17.7
30James (Jd) Schrady '18Point Loma High School Pointers 415/150.17-0.82−0.9926th → 6th4.898%27.7 / 21.5

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1009.0 hPa

What this breeze does at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →