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SAISA Radial Qualifier Cressy

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Scott Rasmussen '16 63
2 Ida S Baker Hig School Ida S Baker Hig School Gage Wilson '17 74
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 82
4 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Hannah Steadman '16 93
5 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Josh Dochoda '16 131
6 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 132
7 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 134
8 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 2 139
9 Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 143
10 Pine View School Pine View School Louisa Nordstrom '16 146
11 Antilles School Antilles School Sam Morrell '17 174
12 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 179
13 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Emmet Ward '16 199
14 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Mack Fox '16 199
15 Naples High School Naples High School Andrew Douglas '19 214
16 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Anna Weis '16 233
17 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 246
18 Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 260
19 South Fork High School South Fork High School Trevor Bornarth '18 261
20 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 268
21 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Max Gillette '16 272
22 St. Stephen's Episcopal School St. Stephen's Episcopal School Samuel Tobio '16 282
23 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Tucker Weed '18 302
24 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Blaire Mccarthy '18 304
25 Antilles School Antilles School Paige Clark '16 321
26 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Shawn Harvey '17 324
27 Pine View School Pine View School Ciara Dorsay '17 328
28 Naples High School Naples High School Jack Breton '19 352
29 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 356
30 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 356
31 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 371
32 Alonzo Alonzo Emily Wright '16 378
33 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Grant Boicheff '18 408
34 Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Nevin Avila '16 414
35 Martin County High School Martin County High School Chris Kiener '17 418
36 Varsity Varsity Varsity 424
37 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 424
38 Wando High School Wando High School Sydney Register '18 430
39 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Chris Hoogenboom '18 436
40 Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Jack Glenn '17 468
41 Robinson High School Robinson High School Jonathan Joyner '19 484
42 Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Courtney Purcell '16 544
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Scott Rasmussen '16 13 1 1 6 6 8 7 7 9 1 1 2 1 63
Ida S Baker Hig School Ida S Baker Hig School Gage Wilson '17 6 2 5 5 1 11 17 6 2 11 2 4 2 74
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 3 11 2 8 9 9 5 8 4 6 4 9 4 82
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Hannah Steadman '16 8 6 4 1 21 1 3 4 14 2 13 6 10 93
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Josh Dochoda '16 14 8 7 3 14 17 12 1 23 10 10 1 11 131
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 24 9 15 9 15 2 6 25 1 7 3 10 6 132
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 2 26 3 16 3 10 1 38 7 14 6 3 5 134
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 2 10 4 6 4 2 27 16 10 8 26 7 7 12 139
Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 9 3 10 10 10 7 8 22 10 3 12 19 20 143
Pine View School Pine View School Louisa Nordstrom '16 1 5 8 2 19 19 25 3 12 4 18 16 14 146
Antilles School Antilles School Sam Morrell '17 17 21 14 12 13 18 2 18 3 8 9 18 21 174
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 4 19 21 13 4 25 18 11 5 28 17 5 9 179
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Emmet Ward '16 16 7 20 17 8 24 15 28 25 13 11 8 7 199
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Mack Fox '16 19 14 26 21 23 6 32 5 18 15 5 12 3 199
Naples High School Naples High School Andrew Douglas '19 11 12 18 11 5 16 13 23 22 34 16 20 13 214
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Anna Weis '16 18 16 23 29 29 3 4 27 20 12 14 22 16 233
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 22 22 19 20 17 26 9 2 35 16 20 21 17 246
Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 27 10 34 19 11 23 31 15 17 18 21 15 19 260
South Fork High School South Fork High School Trevor Bornarth '18 12 29 9 14 30 4 21 29 13 9 28 26 37 261
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 21 34 32 15 33 15 23 13 15 21 15 13 18 268
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Max Gillette '16 29 41 13 27 26 22 20 19 11 17 25 14 8 272
St. Stephen's Episcopal School St. Stephen's Episcopal School Samuel Tobio '16 25 15 16 18 35 30 11 20 29 33 8 11 31 282
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Tucker Weed '18 15 17 27 24 40 14 30 14 6 20 32 39 24 302
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Blaire Mccarthy '18 23 36 25 22 18 34 14 9 16 22 26 27 32 304
Antilles School Antilles School Paige Clark '16 39 30 39 7 7 5 39 21 24 29 31 24 26 321
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Shawn Harvey '17 5 13 12 23 22 13 37 DNS DNS DNS 23 32 15 324
Pine View School Pine View School Ciara Dorsay '17 30 27 29 28 20 21 24 16 21 27 34 28 23 328
Naples High School Naples High School Jack Breton '19 38 28 17 32 12 20 36 33 32 23 24 17 40 352
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 20 42 30 25 31 12 35 12 31 25 35 36 22 356
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 36 18 28 31 16 28 22 31 37 35 22 23 29 356
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 28 40 11 35 24 33 19 17 33 36 37 33 25 371
Alonzo Alonzo Emily Wright '16 7 23 40 DNF DNS 35 10 24 19 5 DNS DNS DNS 378
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Grant Boicheff '18 26 33 22 33 28 38 33 32 34 38 27 30 34 408
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Nevin Avila '16 31 24 41 36 25 29 38 30 27 24 40 31 38 414
Martin County High School Martin County High School Chris Kiener '17 41 37 33 34 27 32 27 26 26 32 29 38 36 418
Varsity Varsity Varsity 33 25 24 39 34 36 41 34 30 31 38 29 30 424
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 35 35 36 30 39 31 34 35 28 40 19 34 28 424
Wando High School Wando High School Sydney Register '18 34 31 31 26 32 37 29 40 36 37 39 25 33 430
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Chris Hoogenboom '18 37 20 37 38 38 39 28 36 39 30 30 37 27 436
Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Jack Glenn '17 42 32 35 37 37 41 40 39 38 19 33 40 35 468
Robinson High School Robinson High School Jonathan Joyner '19 40 38 38 40 36 40 26 37 40 39 36 35 39 484
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Courtney Purcell '16 32 39 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 544
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Osceola Fundamental High SchoolOsceola Fundamental High School Varsity 26097609760976097609760976097609760976097609760976097
VarsityVarsity Varsity2015201520152015201520152015201520152015201520152015
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity4509450945094509450945094509450945094509450945094509
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors1997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971997

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  42 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Scott Rasmussen '16Bishop Verot High School13/132.884.74+1.8697th → 99th12.1<1%4.8 / 15.4
2Gage Wilson '17Ida S Baker Hig School13/132.784.45+1.6796th → 99th10.21%5.7 / 16.0
3Sophia Reineke '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 213/133.074.34+1.2799th → 99th6.42%6.3 / 14.1
4Hannah Steadman '16Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 113/132.514.02+1.5192nd → 99th8.8<1%7.2 / 17.5
5Josh Dochoda '16Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 313/132.993.41+0.4398th → 99th0.920%10.1 / 14.9
6Conner Correll '18St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 513/132.163.36+1.2085th → 99th6.05%10.2 / 19.6
7Chase Carraway '18Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 213/133.162.76−0.4099th → 96th0.820%10.3 / 13.7
9Hallie Schiffman '18Pine View School Pine View Varsity 213/132.783.30+0.5296th → 99th1.313%11.0 / 15.9
10Louisa Nordstrom '16Pine View School Pine View Varsity 313/132.723.22+0.5095th → 99th1.214%11.2 / 16.2
11Sam Morrell '17Antilles School Hurricanes 213/132.273.00+0.7388th → 98th2.519%13.4 / 18.9
12Connor Nelson '19H. B. Plant High School13/132.212.82+0.6186th → 96th1.812%13.8 / 19.4
13Emmet Ward '16Osceola Fundamental High School13/131.402.70+1.3070th → 95th7.17%15.3 / 24.1
13Mack Fox '16St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 313/132.392.63+0.2491st → 94th0.333%15.3 / 18.2
15Andrew Douglas '19Naples High School Varsity 213/131.222.50+1.2865th → 92nd6.88%16.5 / 25.1
16Anna Weis '16St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 113/131.942.36+0.4282nd → 89th0.933%17.9 / 20.8
17Kyle Dochoda '17Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 413/131.942.19+0.2582nd → 86th0.338%18.9 / 20.9
18Lillian Myers '19Riverview High School13/131.852.16+0.3181st → 85th0.538%20.0 / 21.5
19Trevor Bornarth '18South Fork High School13/132.051.87−0.1783rd → 81st0.251%20.1 / 20.3
21Max Gillette '16St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 413/132.011.88−0.1383rd → 81st0.154%20.9 / 20.4
22Samuel Tobio '16St. Stephen's Episcopal School13/131.16u1.83+0.6763rd → 81st2.227%21.7 / 25.4
23Tucker Weed '18Ransom Everglades School Raiders 113/132.541.31−1.2392nd → 67th9.783%23.2 / 17.4
24Blaire Mccarthy '18St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 113/130.841.77+0.9351st → 79th4.024%23.4 / 27.4
25Paige Clark '16Antilles School Hurricanes 113/131.17u1.34+0.1664th → 67th0.144%24.7 / 25.4
26Shawn Harvey '17Ransom Everglades School Raiders 213/132.952.02−0.9398th → 83rd4.695%24.9 / 15.2
27Ciara Dorsay '17Pine View School Pine View Varsity 113/131.571.71+0.1474th → 78th0.164%25.2 / 23.0
28Jack Breton '19Naples High School Varsity 113/130.531.12+0.5939th → 61st1.536%27.1 / 28.9
29Walter Gnann '17Beaufort High School Varsity 213/131.881.27−0.6181st → 66th2.483%27.4 / 21.3
31Benjamin Smith '22Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 113/131.721.08−0.6478th → 60th2.692%28.5 / 22.3
32Emily Wright '16Alonzo13/132.041.53−0.5183rd → 74th0.992%29.1 / 20.3
33Grant Boicheff '18St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 213/130.620.99+0.3643rd → 57th0.768%31.4 / 28.5
34Nevin Avila '16Lakewood High School13/131.090.55−0.5460th → 41st1.583%31.8 / 26.2
35Chris Kiener '17Martin County High School13/131.170.84−0.3364th → 51st0.789%32.2 / 25.3
36Elizabeth Shanahan '19Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 213/131.680.68−1.0177th → 45th6.698%32.6 / 22.4
38Sydney Register '18Wando High School13/130.120.66+0.5425th → 44th1.362%33.1 / 31.1
39Chris Hoogenboom '18Beaufort High School Varsity 113/131.220.59−0.6365th → 42nd2.592%33.5 / 25.2
40Jack Glenn '17Lake Highland Preparatory School13/130.94-0.07−1.0156th → 20th5.596%36.0 / 26.9
41Jonathan Joyner '19Robinson High School13/130.71-0.06−0.7846th → 20th3.496%37.2 / 28.1
42Courtney Purcell '16Sarasota Military Academy13/131.210.70−0.5165th → 45th0.3>99%41.8 / 25.3

Conditions — 09/19/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From NW (323°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1010.1 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at Alonso/Lakewood/Shorecrest Preparato/St. Petersburg — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Alonso/Lakewood/Shorecrest Preparato/St. Petersburg in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Alonso/Lakewood/Shorecrest Preparato/St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Alonso/Lakewood/Shorecrest Preparato/St. Petersburg: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →