Sea Otter Regatta, Silver

HostMonterey Peninsula Yacht Club
Date10/10/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 1	17	34	51
2	Sage Hill School	Lightning	17	46	63
3	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 2	60	8	68
4	Redwood High School	Giants	69	22	91
5	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	48	56	104
6	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	99	33	132
7	Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	84	60	144
8	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	71	74	145
9	Alameda High School	Varsity	53	98	151
10	Palo Alto High	Varsity	80	71	151
11	Woodside High School	Wildcat	104	54	158
12	Miramonte High School	Matadors	90	73	163
13	SF University High School	Red Devils	81	98	179
14	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	73	114	187
15	Stevenson School	Varsity 1	39	149	188
16	Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	71	120	191
17	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	112	86	198
18	Port of Los Angeles High School	Varsity	103	100	203
19	Carmel High School	Padres	146	58	204
20	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	66	139	205
21	The Athenian School	Varsity	155	55	210
22	The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	118	98	216
23	Laguna Blanca School	Varsity	99	131	230
24	St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	112	120	232
25	Pacific Grove High School	Varsity	109	140	249
26	Waldorf High School	Varsity	88	167	255
27	Berkeley High School	Varsity	142	115	257
28	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons	152	124	276
29	Stevenson School	Varsity 2	170	152	322

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 1	1	2	6	3	1	4	17	Kyle Collins '17 Grant Coors '19
Sage Hill School	Lightning	2	3	1	1	7	3	17	Wells Drayton '17 Parker Warden '17
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	3	9	3	8	11	5	39	Stuart Henry '17 Colin Brown '18
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	4	17	2	6	12	7	48	Ryder Easterlin '16 Nicholas Dorn '18
Alameda High School	Varsity	12	1	7	2	DSQ	1	53	Aitor Iriso '17 Eneko Iriso '19
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 2	10	5	14	16	13	2	60	Lukas Kraak '19 [1-6] Justin Zmina '19 [1-2, 5-6] Evan Insley '19 [3-4]
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	6	8	17	21	8	6	66	Anthony Zorayan '18 Sarah Wilkes '16
Redwood High School	Giants	8	14	16	12	3	16	69	Michael Brandon '16 Kali Gibbs '18
Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	5	6	5	5	DSQ	20	71	Carter Lynn '16 Margaret Adams '16
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	7	4	20	15	14	11	71	Sam Reynolds '17 Brett Baron '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	14	10	4	11	4	DSQ	73	Radley Peschel '16 Nathan Nakahara '16
Palo Alto High	Varsity	18	7	10	14	22	9	80	Andrew Huang '18 Eli Zucker '18
SF University High School	Red Devils	15	21	9	9	9	18	81	Lily Cunningham '17 [1-6] Brian Kirz '18 [1-4] Rachel Sherr '16 [5-6]
Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	20	12	19	10	10	13	84	Christina Vandyke '19 Alexis Hall '17
Waldorf High School	Varsity	11	13	11	13	19	21	88	Aidan Doyle '18 Lena Fisher '18
Miramonte High School	Matadors	27	24	21	4	2	12	90	Thomas Erisman '19 Molly Colwell '16
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	9	11	25	DNS	5	19	99	Michael Lively '18 Brennan O'Connell '18
Laguna Blanca School	Varsity	21	22	8	7	18	23	99	Carson Shevitz '16 John Russo '19
Port of Los Angeles High School	Varsity	17	16	13	19	24	14	103	Patrick Garrett '21 Elizabeth Hermenegildo '19
Woodside High School	Wildcat	13	23	15	17	6	DSQ	104	Joseph Politi '18 [1-6] Tyler Davis '18 [1-2, 5-6] Marianna Lubarsky '19 [3-4]
Pacific Grove High School	Varsity	16	19	22	20	17	15	109	Zoe Gleason '21 Tiusanen Mika '17
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	19	15	23	DNS	15	10	112	Jack Larkin '22 Madeleine Roman '22
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	24	18	12	18	16	24	112	Elisabeth Rowedder '16 [1-4] Jake Cortez '17 [5-6] Christian Rodriguez '18 [1-4] Elisabeth Rowedder '16 [5-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	25	27	18	BKD	20	8	118	Sebastian Sponholtz '16 [1-6] Colin Ruppert '16 [1-2, 5-6] Jade Greer '19 [3-4]
Berkeley High School	Varsity	26	25	24	24	21	22	142	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Stuart Myers '17
Carmel High School	Padres	22	20	27	DNS	DSQ	17	146	Dalton Muck '19 Jessica Crump '19
Torrey Pines High School	Falcons	29	26	26	23	23	25	152	Justin Trenkle '16 Jacob Hand '17
The Athenian School	Varsity	23	DNF	29	22	25	26	155	Jackson Kaplan '17 [1-6] Noah Cheyer '19 [1-2] Jackson Yeomans '18 [3-4] Michael Krym '19 [5-6]
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	28	28	28	26	DSQ	DNF	170	Vic Sahni '17 [1-6] Marko Zaninovich '19 [1-4] Kay Du '18 [5-6]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 2	1	1	1	2	2	1	8	Gavin Mcjones '19 Cameron Neligan '19
Redwood High School	Giants	3	2	6	BKD	5	2	22	Tommy Young '18 [1-6] Ian Roddy '18 [1-2, 5-6] Kaelin Stock '18 [3-4]
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	9	6	3	10	1	4	33	John Dilella '18 Thomas Laskarzewski '18
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 1	5	5	7	11	3	3	34	Kaili Campbell '17 [1-6] Emily Collins '19 [1-2, 5-6] Davis Dillenberg '19 [3-4]
Sage Hill School	Lightning	6	4	11	4	15	6	46	Dillon Graveline '18 Isabelle Meegan '19
Woodside High School	Wildcat	10	10	5	8	6	15	54	Judith Politi '21 [1-6] Jessica O'Neill '19 [1-2, 5-6] Anneka Petersen '18 [3-4]
The Athenian School	Varsity	14	11	10	3	10	7	55	Xavier Theo Quinn '16 [1-6] Michael Krym '19 [1-2] Noah Cheyer '19 [3-4] Jackson Yeomans '18 [5-6]
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	4	3	2	1	22	24	56	Jonar Tanguilig '16 [1-4] Mackenzie Berwick '18 [5-6] Maeve Clayton '17 [1-4] Isabel De La Torre '16 [5-6]
Carmel High School	Padres	2	9	17	9	9	12	58	Mia Kotelec '20 Finn Stout '20
Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	7	15	13	5	11	9	60	Hailey Thompson '18 Alex Vandyke '17
Palo Alto High	Varsity	15	8	15	24	4	5	71	Will Glasson '20 Anthony Xie '19
Miramonte High School	Matadors	23	21	4	7	8	10	73	Daniel Erisman '19 [1-6] Kai Otsmaa '17 [1-2, 5-6] Devon Kurisu '19 [3-4]
Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	17	7	23	12	7	8	74	Nick Aline '16 Isabella Harrington '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	18	12	8	25	12	11	86	Joe Rico '18 Frances Tarpey-Schwed '19
SF University High School	Red Devils	11	19	9	14	24	21	98	Micherice Tao '19 [1-2] Jeremy Gillespie '17 [3-6] Rachel Sherr '16 [1-4] Micherice Tao '19 [5-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	12	17	18	21	13	17	98	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-2, 5-6] Leo Findlay '16 [3-4] Leo Findlay '16 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Christey '17 [3-4]
Alameda High School	Varsity	BKD	18	14	19	17	14	98	Caila Devlin '17 [1-2, 5-6] Liam Orozco '19 [3-4] Liam Orozco '19 [1-2] Branden Christman '16 [3-6]
Port of Los Angeles High School	Varsity	13	28	12	15	19	13	100	Tyler Cook '19 Alex Gou '19
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	21	13	24	13	27	16	114	Derek Makovich '16 [1-2] Peter Werner '17 [3-6] Jonathan Fisher '17 [1-2, 5-6] Kat Hipkins '17 [3-4]
Berkeley High School	Varsity	20	20	16	22	14	23	115	Max Rodman '18 Laurel Richardson '16
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	19	16	21	18	26	20	120	Kiera Cullen '17 Emma Reynolds '16
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	27	24	19	16	16	18	120	Christopher Larkin '22 Helen Rice '22
Torrey Pines High School	Falcons	22	14	20	17	25	26	124	Neil Gompf '17 Max Heirich '18
Laguna Blanca School	Varsity	16	26	26	23	21	19	131	Rick Eickert '18 Jake Pelto '17
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	25	27	22	20	20	25	139	Jacob Nquyen '17 Hannah Reh '16
Pacific Grove High School	Varsity	8	22	DNF	DNS	23	27	140	Anthony Biondi '22 Elliott Matthew '17
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	24	25	27	DSQ	18	BKD	149	Ian Smelser '17 Amy Wang '17
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	28	23	25	26	28	22	152	Ben Gersten '18 [1-6] Susanna Yan '18 [1-2] Alan Peng '18 [3-4] Nikki Naquin '17 [5-6]
Waldorf High School	Varsity	26	29	28	27	29	28	167	Rebecca Thompson '16 Sophie Miller '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Alameda High School Varsity	31	31	33	33	35	35
Berkeley High School Varsity	33	33	35	35	37	37
Carmel High School Padres	34	34	36	36	38	38
Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	35	35	37	37	39	39
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars	36	36	38	38	40	40
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	37	37	39	39	41	41
Laguna Blanca School Varsity	38	38	40	40	42	42
Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins	39	39	41	41	43	43
Mater Dei High School Monarchs	40	40	42	42	44	44
Miramonte High School Matadors	41	41	43	43	45	45
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	42	42	44	44	46	46
Pacific Grove High School Varsity	43	43	45	45	47	47
Palo Alto High Varsity	44	44	46	46	48	48
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 1	45	45	47	47	49	49
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 2	46	46	48	48	50	50
Port of Los Angeles High School Varsity	47	47	49	49	51	51
Redwood High School Giants	48	48	50	50	52	52
Sage Hill School Lightning	49	49	51	51	53	53
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA Varsity	50	50	52	52	54	54
SF University High School Red Devils	51	51	53	53	55	55
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	52	52	54	54	56	56
Stevenson School Varsity 1	53	53	55	55	57	57
Stevenson School Varsity 2	54	54	56	56	58	58
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity	55	55	57	57	59	59
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	56	56	58	58	31	31
The Athenian School Varsity	32	32	34	34	36	36
Torrey Pines High School Falcons	57	57	59	59	32	32
Waldorf High School Varsity	58	58	31	31	33	33
Woodside High School Wildcat	59	59	32	32	34	34

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Alameda High School Varsity	32	32	34	34	36	36
Berkeley High School Varsity	34	34	36	36	38	38
Carmel High School Padres	35	35	37	37	39	39
Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	36	36	38	38	40	40
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars	37	37	39	39	41	41
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	38	38	40	40	42	42
Laguna Blanca School Varsity	39	39	41	41	43	43
Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins	40	40	42	42	44	44
Mater Dei High School Monarchs	41	41	43	43	45	45
Miramonte High School Matadors	42	42	44	44	46	46
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	43	43	45	45	47	47
Pacific Grove High School Varsity	44	44	46	46	48	48
Palo Alto High Varsity	45	45	47	47	49	49
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 1	46	46	48	48	50	50
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 2	47	47	49	49	51	51
Port of Los Angeles High School Varsity	48	48	50	50	52	52
Redwood High School Giants	49	49	51	51	53	53
Sage Hill School Lightning	50	50	52	52	54	54
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA Varsity	51	51	53	53	55	55
SF University High School Red Devils	52	52	54	54	56	56
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	53	53	55	55	57	57
Stevenson School Varsity 1	54	54	56	56	58	58
Stevenson School Varsity 2	55	55	57	57	59	59
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity	56	56	58	58	31	31
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	57	57	59	59	32	32
The Athenian School Varsity	33	33	35	35	37	37
Torrey Pines High School Falcons	58	58	31	31	33	33
Waldorf High School Varsity	59	59	32	32	34	34
Woodside High School Wildcat	31	31	33	33	35	35

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Aitor Iriso '17	Eneko Iriso '19
Varsity	Caila Devlin '17 [1-2, 5-6] Liam Orozco '19 [3-4]	Liam Orozco '19 [1-2] Branden Christman '16 [3-6]
Berkeley High School	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Stuart Myers '17
Varsity	Max Rodman '18	Laurel Richardson '16
Carmel High School	Dalton Muck '19	Jessica Crump '19
Padres	Mia Kotelec '20	Finn Stout '20
Cathedral Catholic High School	Carter Lynn '16	Margaret Adams '16
Dons	Nick Aline '16	Isabella Harrington '18
Half Moon Bay High School	Sam Reynolds '17	Brett Baron '16
Cougars	Kiera Cullen '17	Emma Reynolds '16
Laguna Blanca School	Carson Shevitz '16	John Russo '19
Varsity	Rick Eickert '18	Jake Pelto '17
Long Beach Wilson High School	Christina Vandyke '19	Alexis Hall '17
Bruins	Hailey Thompson '18	Alex Vandyke '17
Mater Dei High School	Anthony Zorayan '18	Sarah Wilkes '16
Monarchs	Jacob Nquyen '17	Hannah Reh '16
Miramonte High School	Thomas Erisman '19	Molly Colwell '16
Matadors	Daniel Erisman '19 [1-6]	Kai Otsmaa '17 [1-2, 5-6] Devon Kurisu '19 [3-4]
Monte Vista High School	Michael Lively '18	Brennan O'Connell '18
Mustangs	John Dilella '18	Thomas Laskarzewski '18
Pacific Grove High School	Zoe Gleason '21	Tiusanen Mika '17
Varsity	Anthony Biondi '22	Elliott Matthew '17
Palo Alto High	Andrew Huang '18	Eli Zucker '18
Varsity	Will Glasson '20	Anthony Xie '19
Palos Verdes High School	Kyle Collins '17	Grant Coors '19
Sea Kings 1	Kaili Campbell '17 [1-6]	Emily Collins '19 [1-2, 5-6] Davis Dillenberg '19 [3-4]
Palos Verdes High School	Lukas Kraak '19 [1-6]	Justin Zmina '19 [1-2, 5-6] Evan Insley '19 [3-4]
Sea Kings 2	Gavin Mcjones '19	Cameron Neligan '19
Port of Los Angeles High School	Patrick Garrett '21	Elizabeth Hermenegildo '19
Varsity	Tyler Cook '19	Alex Gou '19
Redwood High School	Michael Brandon '16	Kali Gibbs '18
Giants	Tommy Young '18 [1-6]	Ian Roddy '18 [1-2, 5-6] Kaelin Stock '18 [3-4]
SF University High School	Lily Cunningham '17 [1-6]	Brian Kirz '18 [1-4] Rachel Sherr '16 [5-6]
Red Devils	Micherice Tao '19 [1-2] Jeremy Gillespie '17 [3-6]	Rachel Sherr '16 [1-4] Micherice Tao '19 [5-6]
Sage Hill School	Wells Drayton '17	Parker Warden '17
Lightning	Dillon Graveline '18	Isabelle Meegan '19
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Jack Larkin '22	Madeleine Roman '22
Varsity	Christopher Larkin '22	Helen Rice '22
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Ryder Easterlin '16	Nicholas Dorn '18
Varsity	Jonar Tanguilig '16 [1-4] Mackenzie Berwick '18 [5-6]	Maeve Clayton '17 [1-4] Isabel De La Torre '16 [5-6]
Stevenson School	Stuart Henry '17	Colin Brown '18
Varsity 1	Ian Smelser '17	Amy Wang '17
Stevenson School	Vic Sahni '17 [1-6]	Marko Zaninovich '19 [1-4] Kay Du '18 [5-6]
Varsity 2	Ben Gersten '18 [1-6]	Susanna Yan '18 [1-2] Alan Peng '18 [3-4] Nikki Naquin '17 [5-6]
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Radley Peschel '16	Nathan Nakahara '16
Varsity	Derek Makovich '16 [1-2] Peter Werner '17 [3-6]	Jonathan Fisher '17 [1-2, 5-6] Kat Hipkins '17 [3-4]
Tamalpais High School	Elisabeth Rowedder '16 [1-4] Jake Cortez '17 [5-6]	Christian Rodriguez '18 [1-4] Elisabeth Rowedder '16 [5-6]
Red Tailed Hawks	Joe Rico '18	Frances Tarpey-Schwed '19
The Athenian School	Jackson Kaplan '17 [1-6]	Noah Cheyer '19 [1-2] Jackson Yeomans '18 [3-4] Michael Krym '19 [5-6]
Varsity	Xavier Theo Quinn '16 [1-6]	Michael Krym '19 [1-2] Noah Cheyer '19 [3-4] Jackson Yeomans '18 [5-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Sebastian Sponholtz '16 [1-6]	Colin Ruppert '16 [1-2, 5-6] Jade Greer '19 [3-4]
Varsity	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-2, 5-6] Leo Findlay '16 [3-4]	Leo Findlay '16 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Christey '17 [3-4]
Torrey Pines High School	Justin Trenkle '16	Jacob Hand '17
Falcons	Neil Gompf '17	Max Heirich '18
Waldorf High School	Aidan Doyle '18	Lena Fisher '18
Varsity	Rebecca Thompson '16	Sophie Miller '19
Woodside High School	Joseph Politi '18 [1-6]	Tyler Davis '18 [1-2, 5-6] Marianna Lubarsky '19 [3-4]
Wildcat	Judith Politi '21 [1-6]	Jessica O'Neill '19 [1-2, 5-6] Anneka Petersen '18 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/10/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 82% · Pressure 1015.7 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.2 kn

avg · max 7.4 kn

Gusts to 15.7 kn

From WNW (285°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1015.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.27 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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