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VISA JV Fleet Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 12 12
2 Saints Saints Saints 37 37
3 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 42 42
4 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 42 42
5 York High School York High School Varsity 46 46
6 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 49 49
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 69 69
8 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 78 78
9 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 78 78
10 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 87 87
11 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 88 88
12 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 89 89
13 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 99 99
14 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Saints 100 100
15 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 101 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 12 Nathan Smith '20 [1-9]
Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [3-4, 7-9]
Saints Saints Saints 5 4 2 8 3 2 7 3 3 37
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 2 4 3 8 3 6 6 8 42 Jack Mckenna '20 [1-9]
Brit Cortina '20 [1-6]
Amory Hanes '18 [7-9]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 5 11 2 BYE BYE 4 5 2 42 Lawson Montgomery '18
Mihir Damle '19
York High School York High School Varsity BYE BYE 10 4 5 9 2 1 5 46 Daniel Hodges '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Charlie Gibson '20 [1-2, 7-9]
Sydney Kelly '20 [3-4]
Ethan White '20 [5-6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 4 3 6 7 2 8 3 4 12 49 Gavin Smith '21 [1-8]
Tyson Denton '21 [9]
Ryan Nguyen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Avery Mcnight '20 [3-4]
Grace Holloway '17 [7-8]
Ricky Cordner '19 [9]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 8 7 12 4 6 10 8 7 69 John Machowski '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Egecan Tezcan '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Carson Rozell '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Anna Piacentini '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 9 14 8 5 7 10 5 10 10 78 Charlie White '15 [1-2, 7-8]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-6, 9]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2]
Lucien Parker '20 [3-4, 9]
Will Moore '20 [5-6]
Cole Weaver '20 [7-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 10 10 5 6 9 11 14 7 6 78 Mike Klink '15 [1-2]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [3-4]
Anne Burns '16 [5-6]
Harrison Thomson '22 [7-8]
Nick Baker '16 [9]
Hunter Kahler '17 [1-2]
Clare Harbin '19 [3-4]
Harrison Thomson '22 [5-6]
Chapman Holt '20 [7-9]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 13 7 1 9 14 14 BYE BYE 9 87 Olivia Basco '19 [1]
Scott Spencer '19 [2]
Andrew Frix '18 [3-4]
Connor Duggan '19 [5-6]
Henry Waddill '19 [7-9]
Diaana Mohsin '19 [1]
Laurajean Logue '19 [2]
Krysta Rutherford '19 [3-4]
Brandon Kim '19 [5-6]
Will Flannery '20 [7-9]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 12 6 14 13 6 7 9 11 BYE 88 Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-9]
Taylor Garran '20 [1-2]
Colin Wilson '18 [3-9]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 8 11 9 11 12 5 8 14 11 89 Tyler Bevington '19 [1-4, 9]
David Michael Jennings '14 [5-8]
Ricky Cordner '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Mallory Sotor '20 [3-4, 9]
Morgan Handly '21 [7-8]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 11 13 BYE BYE 13 12 12 12 4 99 Kelly Ivy '17
Raina Hempley '19
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Saints 14 12 12 14 10 4 11 9 14 100 Eva Saville '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Isabella Sims '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Lily Goodman '18 [9]
Lily Goodman '18 [1-2]
Madison Maynes '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Liza Polk '17 [5-6]
Eva Saville '19 [9]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 6 9 13 10 11 13 13 13 13 101 Dylan Gibbs '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Pierce Wilt '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Alex Davis '18 [9]
Alex Davis '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sam Mcgowan '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Dylan Gibbs '17 [9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses11559917172
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity2266141418183
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators337715154
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors44881616115
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores55991717226
SaintsSaints Saints6614141818337
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs771515448
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks88161611559
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms991717226614
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders14141818337715
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield1515448816
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Saints161611559917
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints17172266141418
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans181833771515
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity448816161
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses John Machowski '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Egecan Tezcan '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Carson Rozell '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Anna Piacentini '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity Nathan Smith '20 [1-9] Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [3-4, 7-9]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Olivia Basco '19 [1]
Scott Spencer '19 [2]
Andrew Frix '18 [3-4]
Connor Duggan '19 [5-6]
Henry Waddill '19 [7-9]		 Diaana Mohsin '19 [1]
Laurajean Logue '19 [2]
Krysta Rutherford '19 [3-4]
Brandon Kim '19 [5-6]
Will Flannery '20 [7-9]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors Gavin Smith '21 [1-8]
Tyson Denton '21 [9]		 Ryan Nguyen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Avery Mcnight '20 [3-4]
Grace Holloway '17 [7-8]
Ricky Cordner '19 [9]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores Charlie White '15 [1-2, 7-8]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-6, 9]		 Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2]
Lucien Parker '20 [3-4, 9]
Will Moore '20 [5-6]
Cole Weaver '20 [7-8]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs Lawson Montgomery '18 Mihir Damle '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks Mike Klink '15 [1-2]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [3-4]
Anne Burns '16 [5-6]
Harrison Thomson '22 [7-8]
Nick Baker '16 [9]		 Hunter Kahler '17 [1-2]
Clare Harbin '19 [3-4]
Harrison Thomson '22 [5-6]
Chapman Holt '20 [7-9]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms Tyler Bevington '19 [1-4, 9]
David Michael Jennings '14 [5-8]		 Ricky Cordner '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Mallory Sotor '20 [3-4, 9]
Morgan Handly '21 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders Jack Mckenna '20 [1-9] Brit Cortina '20 [1-6]
Amory Hanes '18 [7-9]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield Kelly Ivy '17 Raina Hempley '19
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Saints Eva Saville '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Isabella Sims '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Lily Goodman '18 [9]		 Lily Goodman '18 [1-2]
Madison Maynes '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Liza Polk '17 [5-6]
Eva Saville '19 [9]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints Dylan Gibbs '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Pierce Wilt '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Alex Davis '18 [9]		 Alex Davis '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sam Mcgowan '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Dylan Gibbs '17 [9]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-9] Taylor Garran '20 [1-2]
Colin Wilson '18 [3-9]
York High School York High School Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4, 7-9]		 Charlie Gibson '20 [1-2, 7-9]
Sydney Kelly '20 [3-4]
Ethan White '20 [5-6]

Conditions — 10/31/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 12.1 kn
From E (100°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Poquoson @ Whitehouse Cove: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Poquoson @ Whitehouse Cove by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Poquoson @ Whitehouse Cove, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →