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Great Oaks 2016 Gold

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 28 28
2 Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 44 44
3 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 57 57
4 Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 70 70
5 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 75 75
6 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard Vikings 83 83
7 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 87 87
8 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 89 89
9 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 90 90
10 Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 96 96
11 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 98 98
12 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 103 103
13 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 110 110
14 Xavier High School Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons 117 117
15 Carrboro High School Carrboro High School Varsity 122 122
16 Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 137 137
17 Falcons Falcons Falcons 146 MRP 146 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 1 4 3 1 11 3 1 2 1 1 28 Samuel Bartel '18 [1-10]
Erik Sundberg '17 [1-2]
Rachel Bartel '20 [3-10]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 2 1 5 6 1 4 5 3 8 9 44 Adam Larson '19
Kenny Corsig '19
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 4 3 9 3 2 6 3 5 9 13 57 Jackson Connell '17 [1-10]
Brianna Misk '17 [1-2]
Emma Aubuchon '19 [3-10]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 10 9 15 13 5 1 6 1 3 7 70 Jamie Paul '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Chase Latour '19 [3-4]
Grant Ballesteros '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Christian Haranzo '20 [3-4]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 3 6 7 2 12 9 10 8 4 14 75 Shane Riera '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [5-6]
Natalia Gagliano '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [3-4, 7-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard Vikings 12 11 2 11 6 11 4 9 5 12 83 Scott Harris '18 [1-10]
Cooper Whitehead '18 [1-2]
Sean Harris '20 [3-10]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 7 10 10 5 15 7 12 14 2 5 87 Jonathan Schrantz '20 [1-10]
Nicholas Combe '19 [1-2]
Chris Hebert '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Joshua Keegan '20 [5-6]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 17 7 12 4 7 14 2 6 17 3 89 Juiia Reynolds '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Everett Nash '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Everett Metchick '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 13 8 1 14 9 2 8 15 10 10 90 Toby Sullivan '19 [1-10]
Karan Jain '19 [1-8]
Jose Verela '19 [9-10]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 6 16 6 15 3 15 9 7 11 8 96 Joey Chomyn '19 [1-4]
Neil Walters '20 [5-10]
William Chapman '18 [1-2]
Neil Walters '20 [3-4]
Lillian Holland '19 [5-10]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 8 2 4 7 13 12 15 13 6 DSQ 98 Walter Gnann '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Alex Mazzeo '18 [5-6]
Jacob Lawson '18 [1-6]
Alex Mazzeo '18 [7-10]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 15 14 8 9 4 8 7 11 12 15 103 Colleen Baumann '17 [1-10]
Sam Morin '18 [1-2]
Lillian Nemeth '18 [3-10]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 5 12 11 12 14 5 11 16 13 11 110 Noah Wolters '19
Caleb Boon '17
Xavier High School Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons 9 5 13 10 17 10 13 10 14 16 117 Stewart Gurnell '19 [1-10]
Jon Reboul '17 [1-2]
Brian Tiernan '17 [3-4, 9-10]
Drew Eramo '18 [5-8]
Carrboro High School Carrboro High School Varsity 14 13 14 8 16 13 OCS 17 7 2 122 Levi Hencke '18
Kelsey Ferguson '18
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 16 15 16 17 10 17 14 12 16 4 137 George Hambleton '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Rudzki '17 [3-4, 7-10]
Peter Nguyen '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Connor Rudzki '17 [5-6]
Falcons Falcons Falcons 11 17 17 16 8 16 16 4 15 6 146 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity1133557799
Carrboro High SchoolCarrboro High School Varsity335577991111
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons272729293131333311
Choctawhatchee High SchoolChoctawhatchee High School Varsity55779911111313
FalconsFalcons Falcons7799111113131515
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons991111131315151717
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits11111313151517171919
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies13131515171719192121
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard Vikings15151717191921212323
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers17171919212123232525
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs19192121232325252727
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet21212323252527272929
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Varsity23232525272729293131
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red25252727292931313333
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy2929313133331133
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors31313333113355
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Xavier High Falcons333311335577
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity Walter Gnann '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Alex Mazzeo '18 [5-6]		 Jacob Lawson '18 [1-6]
Alex Mazzeo '18 [7-10]
Carrboro High School Carrboro High School Varsity Levi Hencke '18 Kelsey Ferguson '18
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity George Hambleton '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Rudzki '17 [3-4, 7-10]		 Peter Nguyen '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Connor Rudzki '17 [5-6]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons Juiia Reynolds '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Everett Nash '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Cooper Soderlund '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Everett Metchick '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits Jamie Paul '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Chase Latour '19 [3-4]		 Grant Ballesteros '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Christian Haranzo '20 [3-4]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies Jonathan Schrantz '20 [1-10] Nicholas Combe '19 [1-2]
Chris Hebert '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Joshua Keegan '20 [5-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard Vikings Scott Harris '18 [1-10] Cooper Whitehead '18 [1-2]
Sean Harris '20 [3-10]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 [1-10] Karan Jain '19 [1-8]
Jose Verela '19 [9-10]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs Adam Larson '19 Kenny Corsig '19
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet Samuel Bartel '18 [1-10] Erik Sundberg '17 [1-2]
Rachel Bartel '20 [3-10]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity Joey Chomyn '19 [1-4]
Neil Walters '20 [5-10]		 William Chapman '18 [1-2]
Neil Walters '20 [3-4]
Lillian Holland '19 [5-10]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Noah Wolters '19 Caleb Boon '17
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons Colleen Baumann '17 [1-10] Sam Morin '18 [1-2]
Lillian Nemeth '18 [3-10]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy Jackson Connell '17 [1-10] Brianna Misk '17 [1-2]
Emma Aubuchon '19 [3-10]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors Shane Riera '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [5-6]		 Natalia Gagliano '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons Stewart Gurnell '19 [1-10] Jon Reboul '17 [1-2]
Brian Tiernan '17 [3-4, 9-10]
Drew Eramo '18 [5-8]

Conditions — 11/20/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1027.7 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1027.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jesuit High School: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit High School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jesuit High School: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →