2017 PCISA Single-Handed District Champs - Radial

HostLong Beach Poly/Long Beach Wilson
Date09/23/2017
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Point Loma High School	Aidan Hoogland '20	37
2	Santa Barbara High School	Caden Scheiblauer '19	52
3	Corona del Mar High School	Max Mayol '19	56
4	Palos Verdes High School	Gavin Mcjones '19	64
5	Point Loma High School	Diego Escobar '20	65
6	Miramonte High School	Will Foox '20	101
7	Fairview High School	Cameron Holland '19	102
8	Eureka School of Santa Barbara	Payne Donaldson '19	117
9	Point Loma High School	Taisei Hatter '19	120
10	Redwood High School	Nicholas Sessions '20	128
11	Foothill Technology H.S.	Annika Fedde '19	133
12	Bishop's School	John Majernik '20	158
13	Long Beach Wilson High School	Trent Turigliatto '18	161
14	Olympian High School	Alexandra Shand '24	163
15	Redwood High School	Sarah Young '20	179
16	Newport Harbor High School	Reid Wiley '18	190
17	Newport Harbor High School	Erik Hou '20	200
18	Newport Harbor High School	Alex Bonsager '20	201
19	Sage Hill School	Jonathan Chance '19	207
20	Redondo Union High School	Taft Buckley '21	221
21	Las Lomas High School	Ava Adamson '27	244
22	Mater Dei High School	Jeffrey Petersen '20	245
23	Redwood High School	Spencer Thompson '21	256
24	Bishop's School	Amanda Majernik '18	280
25	Parker	Cameron Cage '20	282
26	High Tech	High Tech	302
27	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Daren Sathasivam '21	309
28	Bishop's School	Cal Pedroli '19	317
29	Blue and Gold	Sam Suddath '26	350
30	Mater Dei High School	Anthony Zorayan '18	360

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Point Loma High School	Aidan Hoogland '20	4	1	5	4	6	3	1	5	5	1	1	1	37
Santa Barbara High School	Caden Scheiblauer '19	8	7	12	8	1	2	5	1	2	2	2	2	52
Corona del Mar High School	Max Mayol '19	1	4	3	2	9	4	3	2	3	9	13	3	56
Palos Verdes High School	Gavin Mcjones '19	7	6	9	6	2	1	9	4	1	7	4	8	64
Point Loma High School	Diego Escobar '20	3	2	1	1	7	5	4	10	11	4	11	6	65
Miramonte High School	Will Foox '20	5	8	2	15	15	7	13	3	6	3	10	14	101
Fairview High School	Cameron Holland '19	10	15	4	5	5	10	6	7	9	8	12	11	102
Eureka School of Santa Barbara	Payne Donaldson '19	2	12	13	3	10	11	14	6	20	14	7	5	117
Point Loma High School	Taisei Hatter '19	12	13	16	12	18	6	8	8	4	5	8	10	120
Redwood High School	Nicholas Sessions '20	17	18	14	19	16	8	2	11	7	6	6	4	128
Foothill Technology H.S.	Annika Fedde '19	6	19	10	18	12	13	11	14	8	10	5	7	133
Bishop's School	John Majernik '20	22	21	15	9	23	12	7	13	12	12	3	9	158
Long Beach Wilson High School	Trent Turigliatto '18	20	14	18	10	21	9	12	9	13	11	9	15	161
Olympian High School	Alexandra Shand '24	15	3	11	16	11	20	16	15	10	13	17	16	163
Redwood High School	Sarah Young '20	18	10	17	21	8	15	10	16	16	18	18	12	179
Newport Harbor High School	Reid Wiley '18	16	16	7	7	13	16	21	17	17	17	23	20	190
Newport Harbor High School	Erik Hou '20	11	9	6	23	4	19	15	20	22	25	22	24	200
Newport Harbor High School	Alex Bonsager '20	19	17	20	20	3	22	17	19	14	15	16	19	201
Sage Hill School	Jonathan Chance '19	13	11	19	17	19	14	18	21	18	20	19	18	207
Redondo Union High School	Taft Buckley '21	14	5	8	11	26	18	27	18	28	21	24	21	221
Las Lomas High School	Ava Adamson '27	23	23	22	22	28	21	22	22	15	19	14	13	244
Mater Dei High School	Jeffrey Petersen '20	9	22	21	14	17	17	19	12	21	DNF	DNS	DNS	245
Redwood High School	Spencer Thompson '21	25	28	27	25	14	24	20	26	19	16	15	17	256
Bishop's School	Amanda Majernik '18	24	29	23	24	20	23	23	23	23	24	21	23	280
Parker	Cameron Cage '20	21	20	28	13	27	26	26	24	24	22	26	25	282
High Tech	High Tech	28	24	24	26	22	25	24	27	26	23	27	26	302
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Daren Sathasivam '21	27	27	26	27	24	DNF	25	28	25	27	20	22	309
Bishop's School	Cal Pedroli '19	29	25	25	28	25	27	28	25	27	26	25	27	317
Blue and Gold	Sam Suddath '26	30	30	30	29	29	28	29	29	29	DNF	28	28	350
Mater Dei High School	Anthony Zorayan '18	26	26	29	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	360

Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
	High Tech High Tech	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
— in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A 30 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Aidan Hoogland '20	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	12/12	2.41	5.14	+2.72	91st → 99th	19.6	<1%	3.1 / 12.9
2	Caden Scheiblauer '19	Santa Barbara High School	12/12	2.14	4.46	+2.32	85th → 99th	15.9	<1%	4.3 / 14.1
3	Max Mayol '19	Corona del Mar High School	12/12	2.92	4.23	+1.31	98th → 99th	6.0	4%	4.7 / 10.8
4	Gavin Mcjones '19	Palos Verdes High School	12/12	3.02	4.06	+1.04	98th → 99th	4.0	4%	5.3 / 10.1
5	Diego Escobar '20	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	12/12	2.80	4.00	+1.21	96th → 99th	5.3	2%	5.4 / 11.3
6	Will Foox '20	Miramonte High School	12/12	2.01	3.25	+1.24	83rd → 99th	5.8	7%	8.4 / 14.7
7	Cameron Holland '19	Fairview High School	12/12	1.43^u	3.32	+1.89	71st → 99th	12.0	2%	8.5 / 17.2
8	Payne Donaldson '19	Eureka School of Santa Barbara	12/12	-0.19	2.99	+3.18	16th → 98th	27.1	<1%	9.8 / 23.3
9	Taisei Hatter '19	Point Loma High School Pointers 3	12/12	2.10	3.00	+0.90	84th → 98th	3.3	18%	10.0 / 14.2
10	Nicholas Sessions '20	Redwood High School Giants 3	12/12	3.21	2.73	−0.48	99th → 95th	1.3	67%	10.7 / 9.6
11	Annika Fedde '19	Foothill Technology H.S.	12/12	1.79	2.80	+1.01	80th → 96th	4.1	11%	11.1 / 15.5
12	John Majernik '20	Bishop's School Knights 3	12/12	1.68	2.35	+0.68	77th → 89th	2.0	26%	13.2 / 16.1
13	Trent Turigliatto '18	Long Beach Wilson High School	12/12	2.29	2.39	+0.10	88th → 91st	0.1	51%	13.4 / 13.5
14	Alexandra Shand '24	Olympian High School	12/12	1.33^u	2.39	+1.06	67th → 91st	4.5	19%	13.6 / 17.6
15	Sarah Young '20	Redwood High School Giants 1	12/12	2.18	2.18	−0.00	86th → 86th	0.0	62%	14.9 / 13.9
16	Reid Wiley '18	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1	12/12	2.13	1.97	−0.16	84th → 83rd	0.1	66%	15.8 / 14.1
17	Erik Hou '20	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2	12/12	2.21	1.61	−0.60	86th → 75th	2.1	75%	16.7 / 13.9
18	Alex Bonsager '20	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3	12/12	2.03	1.89	−0.13	83rd → 81st	0.1	70%	16.8 / 14.5
19	Jonathan Chance '19	Sage Hill School	12/12	1.33	1.91	+0.58	67th → 82nd	1.5	48%	17.2 / 17.5
20	Taft Buckley '21	Redondo Union High School	12/12	1.82	1.17	−0.66	81st → 64th	2.3	75%	18.4 / 15.5
21	Ava Adamson '27	Las Lomas High School	12/12	1.07^u	1.30	+0.23	60th → 67th	0.2	66%	20.3 / 18.5
22	Jeffrey Petersen '20	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	12/12	2.31	1.89	−0.42	88th → 81st	0.8	95%	20.4 / 13.4
23	Spencer Thompson '21	Redwood High School Giants 2	12/12	0.92	1.14	+0.21	56th → 62nd	0.2	68%	21.3 / 19.2
24	Amanda Majernik '18	Bishop's School Knights 1	12/12	1.99	0.86	−1.13	83rd → 52nd	8.2	98%	23.3 / 14.7
25	Cameron Cage '20	Parker	12/12	1.28	0.74	−0.54	66th → 47th	1.6	91%	23.5 / 17.8
27	Daren Sathasivam '21	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	12/12	1.40	0.39	−1.01	69th → 34th	5.3	98%	25.8 / 17.1
28	Cal Pedroli '19	Bishop's School Knights 2	12/12	1.03^u	0.11	−0.92	59th → 25th	4.6	98%	26.4 / 18.7
29	Sam Suddath '26	Blue and Gold	12/12	-0.18	—	—	17th → —	14.8	99%	29.2 / 23.2
30	Anthony Zorayan '18	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	12/12	1.43	0.15	−1.28	71st → 26th	2.5	>99%	30.0 / 17.2

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From S (185°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1010.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Long Beach Poly/Long Beach Wilson — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Long Beach Poly/Long Beach Wilson in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Long Beach Poly/Long Beach Wilson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Long Beach Poly/Long Beach Wilson: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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