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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 12 16 28
2 Traverse City West Traverse City West Mixed 21 8 29
3 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 13 24 37
4 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 19 21 40
5 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 30 22 52
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 31 35 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 2 1 4 1 1 3 12 Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-6]
Lauren Winegarden '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Susanna Wu '20 [3-4]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 1 4 1 3 3 1 13 Noah Robitshek '21
Kai Oslund Dolan '20
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 3 2 5 2 2 5 19 Ajay Provost '19
Amelia Burke '18
Traverse City West Traverse City West Mixed 4 3 3 4 5 2 21 Brooke Ostrowski '18
Jacob Varner '21
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 5 5 6 6 4 4 30 Gabe Maday '22
No Show
Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 6 6 2 5 6 6 31 Bryce Wilmoth '20
Ian Beck '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Traverse City West Traverse City West Mixed 2 1 1 1 1 2 8 Nick Gustafson '19
Liam Clone '20
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 1 5 5 2 2 1 16 Adrian Stone '20
Lizzie Balsam '18
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 3 4 2 5 3 4 21 Drew Snyder '19
Caelan Wright '19
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 6 2 4 3 4 3 22 Annie Myler '20
Mary Frances Myler '18
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 4 3 3 4 5 5 24 Celeste Anderson '17
Hunter Hawes '21
Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 5 6 6 6 6 6 35 Nic Zenner '21
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue212119191717
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator202018181616
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Black181816162020
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Gold191917172121
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Middle School171721211919
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Mixed161620201818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue202018181616
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator191917172121
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Black171721211919
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Gold181816162020
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Middle School161620201818
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Mixed212119191717
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-6] Lauren Winegarden '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Susanna Wu '20 [3-4]
Cranbrook Blue Adrian Stone '20 Lizzie Balsam '18
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Gabe Maday '22 No Show
St Francis Gladiator Annie Myler '20 Mary Frances Myler '18
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 Kai Oslund Dolan '20
Black Celeste Anderson '17 Hunter Hawes '21
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Ajay Provost '19 Amelia Burke '18
Gold Drew Snyder '19 Caelan Wright '19
Traverse City West Traverse City West Bryce Wilmoth '20 Ian Beck '18
Middle School Nic Zenner '21 No Show
Traverse City West Traverse City West Brooke Ostrowski '18 Jacob Varner '21
Mixed Nick Gustafson '19 Liam Clone '20

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From SW (228°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1017.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Traverse City Centra: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.35 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Traverse City Centra by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Traverse City Centra, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →