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Cornwell Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Blue 21 13 34
2 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 18 34 52
3 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 18 42 60
4 Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 26 38 64
5 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Gold 45 19 64
6 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Mixed 63 27 90
7 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 48 52 100
8 Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 49 63 112
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 1 1 4 6 1 2 2 1 18 Ajay Provost '19
Amelia Burke '18
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 2 3 1 1 3 4 1 3 18 Mary Frances Myler '18
Gabe Maday '21
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Blue 3 2 2 2 4 1 3 4 21 Murphy Wynsma '19
Hazel Mcgovern '21
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 4 4 3 3 2 3 5 2 26 Nick Gustafson '19
Liam Clone '20
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Gold 6 6 7 4 8 5 4 5 45 Kate Mackeigan '19
Simon Rockwell '20
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 6 48 Caelan Wright '19
Drew Snyder '19
Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 49 No Show
No Show
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Mixed 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 63 Lilly Kate Rogers '19
Katherine Lykins '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Blue 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 13 Luke Diehm '19
Bella Kirchgessner '19
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Gold 3 2 3 3 2 2 1 3 19 Caroline Grin '21
Mady Allen '21
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids JV Mixed 1 5 2 2 6 7 3 1 27 No Show
No Show
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Gold 6 3 4 5 3 3 5 5 34 Hunter Hawes '21
No Show
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 4 4 5 6 7 6 4 2 38 Jacob Varner '21
Nic Zenner '21
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 5 6 6 4 4 4 7 6 42 Annie Myler '20
No Show
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Black 7 7 7 8 5 5 6 7 52 Charles Kellogg '19
Apollo Schaefer '20
Traverse City West Traverse City West Middle School 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 63 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids JV Blue16161818202055
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids JV Gold17171919212188
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids JV Mixed18182020551616
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator19192121881717
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Black21218817171919
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Gold20205516161818
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Middle School88171719192121
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity55161618182020

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids JV Blue17171919212188
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids JV Gold18182020551616
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids JV Mixed19192121881717
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator20205516161818
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Black55161618182020
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Gold21218817171919
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Middle School16161818202055
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity88171719192121

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1000.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.7 kn
avg  ·  max 19.1 kn
Gusts to 41.6 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine1.1 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1000.3 hPa Rain0.18 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.31 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →