Dusty Waters

HostArrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Oconomowoc
Date10/14/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	5	23	28
2	Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons	28	17	45
3	Kettle Moraine High School	MIXED	21	24	45
4	Arrowhead High School	Mixed	43	9	52
5	Oconomowoc High School	Mixed 1	26	37	63
6	Oshkosh North High School	Mixed	38	26	64
7	New Trier HS	Trevian 2	47	35	82
8	Lake Forest High School	Mixed 1	32	51	83
9	New Trier HS	Trevian 1	28	61	89
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	51	53	104
11	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	57	55	112
12	Raiders	Raiders	75	61	136
13	Lake Forest High School	Mixed 2	40	97	137
14	Lyons Township High School	Mixed	64	75	139
15	Oconomowoc High School	Mixed 2	82	57	139
16	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	82	58	140
17	Trinity High School (IL)	Blazers	71	80	151
18	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	97	59	156
19	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	78	82	160
20	Mixed	Mixed	85	91	176

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	1	1	1	1	1	5	Jonothan Bailey '19 Erin Schaubel '18
Kettle Moraine High School	MIXED	3	7	2	2	7	21	Sam Spencer '20 Tess Kreutzmann '19
Oconomowoc High School	Mixed 1	5	4	9	3	5	26	Karolynn Kunz '18 Cody Tuftee '18
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons	2	3	3	10	10	28	Will Grosspietsch '18 Lexi Garczynski '19
New Trier HS	Trevian 1	4	2	10	6	6	28	Garrett Cook '20 Sammy Stoeber '20
Lake Forest High School	Mixed 1	8	8	7	7	2	32	Connor Sheridan '18 Luke Ackerman '20
Oshkosh North High School	Mixed	7	6	6	11	8	38	Eddie Hanson '19 [1-5] Talia Sheehan '22 [1-2, 5] Abe Weston '21 [3-4]
Lake Forest High School	Mixed 2	9	13	5	4	9	40	Nicholas Elsasser '18 Lieke Schimmelpinnink '21
Arrowhead High School	Mixed	6	5	16	12	4	43	Luca Marban '21 Maggie Siepmann '20
New Trier HS	Trevian 2	20	11	8	5	3	47	Will Plovanic '19 Zach Nagel '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	10	9	13	8	11	51	Matteo Torquati '19 Benny Wild '22
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	14	12	4	9	18	57	Adam Cole '19 Lily Loventhal '20
Lyons Township High School	Mixed	12	14	12	14	12	64	Casey Gignac '18 Isabel Drobny '20
Trinity High School (IL)	Blazers	17	10	15	16	13	71	Katie Faris '19 Rachel Murphy '19
Raiders	Raiders	16	15	11	19	14	75
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	13	17	14	17	17	78	Robert Dazynski '21 Kate Gallagher '21
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	11	19	18	15	19	82	Ryan Henderson '19 Elliot Robinson '21
Oconomowoc High School	Mixed 2	19	18	17	13	15	82	Karolynn Kunz '18 Cody Tuftee '18
Mixed	Mixed	15	16	20	18	16	85
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	18	20	19	20	20	97	Kari Hoover '18 [1-5] Cassie Hollick '20 [1-2, 5] Kevin Barrett '20 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Arrowhead High School	Mixed	1	2	1	2	3	9	Ella Schieble '22 Carly Kiss '21
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons	4	1	3	5	4	17	Quinn Harris '21 Jacob Spear '21
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	6	7	8	1	1	23	Jack Schweda '20 Lily Stemper '20
Kettle Moraine High School	MIXED	2	5	6	6	5	24	Red Tornehl '20 Maddie Crucius '20
Oshkosh North High School	Mixed	3	3	5	7	8	26	Adam Biwer '22 Max Krotts '21
New Trier HS	Trevian 2	15	12	2	4	2	35	Nate Alter '19 Anna Mcbride '20
Oconomowoc High School	Mixed 1	7	6	10	3	11	37	Graves Anna '18 Macy Saucke '19
Lake Forest High School	Mixed 1	5	4	13	14	15	51	William Porter '18 Liam Andersen '20
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	9	8	14	13	9	53	Emerson Wright '19 [1-5] Soyi Park '21 [1-2] Philip Lengyel '21 [3-5]
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	12	9	12	9	13	55	Nicholas Peluchiwski '18 Caroline Creamer '20
Oconomowoc High School	Mixed 2	13	15	9	10	10	57	Emma Wagner '21 Joey Biwer '19
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	14	11	7	8	18	58	Ulysses Hennelly '20 [1-5] Miles Ford '19 [1-2] Tim Mooney '21 [3-5]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	8	14	19	12	6	59	Grace Beard '21 [1-5] Caroline Hayes '18 [1-2] Kate Naughton '20 [3-5]
New Trier HS	Trevian 1	16	16	11	11	7	61	Ted Lutton '20 Quin Doughty '21
Raiders	Raiders	18	10	4	17	12	61
Lyons Township High School	Mixed	10	13	15	18	19	75	Jack Bergman '20 [1-5] Patrick Hummel '21 [1-2, 5] Brenden Micnamus '21 [3-4]
Trinity High School (IL)	Blazers	11	17	18	20	14	80	Emily Kowal '20 [1-2, 4-5] Elizabeth Gildea '20 [3] Elizabeth Gildea '20 [1-2, 4-5] Emily Kowal '20 [3]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	17	18	16	15	16	82	Cecily Marden '21 Francis Depke '21
Mixed	Mixed	19	19	17	19	17	91
Lake Forest High School	Mixed 2	20	20	20	16	DNS	97	Thaxter Shaw '19 Nate Koh '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.300+0.30

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Arrowhead High School Mixed	2	2	4	4	6
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	1	1	3	3	5
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	19	19	1	1	3
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	4	4	6	6	8
Mixed Mixed	5	5	7	7	9
Kettle Moraine High School MIXED	6	6	8	8	10
Lake Forest High School Mixed 1	7	7	9	9	11
Lake Forest High School Mixed 2	8	8	10	10	12
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	9	9	11	11	13
Loyola Academy Ramblers	10	10	12	12	14
Lyons Township High School Mixed	11	11	13	13	15
New Trier HS Trevian 1	12	12	14	14	16
New Trier HS Trevian 2	13	13	15	15	17
Raiders Raiders	14	14	16	16	18
Oconomowoc High School Mixed 1	16	16	18	18	20
Oconomowoc High School Mixed 2	17	17	19	19	1
Oconomowoc High School Raccoons	15	15	17	17	19
Oshkosh North High School Mixed	18	18	20	20	2
Trinity High School (IL) Blazers	3	3	5	5	7
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	20	20	2	2	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Arrowhead High School Mixed	3	3	5	5	7
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	2	2	4	4	6
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	20	20	2	2	4
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	5	5	7	7	9
Mixed Mixed	6	6	8	8	10
Kettle Moraine High School MIXED	7	7	9	9	11
Lake Forest High School Mixed 1	8	8	10	10	12
Lake Forest High School Mixed 2	9	9	11	11	13
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	10	10	12	12	14
Loyola Academy Ramblers	11	11	13	13	15
Lyons Township High School Mixed	12	12	14	14	16
New Trier HS Trevian 1	13	13	15	15	17
New Trier HS Trevian 2	14	14	16	16	18
Raiders Raiders	15	15	17	17	19
Oconomowoc High School Mixed 1	17	17	19	19	1
Oconomowoc High School Mixed 2	18	18	20	20	2
Oconomowoc High School Raccoons	16	16	18	18	20
Oshkosh North High School Mixed	19	19	1	1	3
Trinity High School (IL) Blazers	4	4	6	6	8
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arrowhead High School	Luca Marban '21	Maggie Siepmann '20
Mixed	Ella Schieble '22	Carly Kiss '21
Arrowhead High School	Jonothan Bailey '19	Erin Schaubel '18
Warhawks	Jack Schweda '20	Lily Stemper '20
Evanston Township HS	Ryan Henderson '19	Elliot Robinson '21
Wildkits	Ulysses Hennelly '20 [1-5]	Miles Ford '19 [1-2] Tim Mooney '21 [3-5]
Kettle Moraine High School	Sam Spencer '20	Tess Kreutzmann '19
MIXED	Red Tornehl '20	Maddie Crucius '20
Lake Forest High School	Connor Sheridan '18	Luke Ackerman '20
Mixed 1	William Porter '18	Liam Andersen '20
Lake Forest High School	Nicholas Elsasser '18	Lieke Schimmelpinnink '21
Mixed 2	Thaxter Shaw '19	Nate Koh '20
Latin School of Chicago	Adam Cole '19	Lily Loventhal '20
Varsity	Nicholas Peluchiwski '18	Caroline Creamer '20
Loyola Academy	Kari Hoover '18 [1-5]	Cassie Hollick '20 [1-2, 5] Kevin Barrett '20 [3-4]
Ramblers	Grace Beard '21 [1-5]	Caroline Hayes '18 [1-2] Kate Naughton '20 [3-5]
Lyons Township High School	Casey Gignac '18	Isabel Drobny '20
Mixed	Jack Bergman '20 [1-5]	Patrick Hummel '21 [1-2, 5] Brenden Micnamus '21 [3-4]
New Trier HS	Garrett Cook '20	Sammy Stoeber '20
Trevian 1	Ted Lutton '20	Quin Doughty '21
New Trier HS	Will Plovanic '19	Zach Nagel '19
Trevian 2	Nate Alter '19	Anna Mcbride '20
Oconomowoc High School	Karolynn Kunz '18	Cody Tuftee '18
Mixed 1	Graves Anna '18	Macy Saucke '19
Oconomowoc High School	Karolynn Kunz '18	Cody Tuftee '18
Mixed 2	Emma Wagner '21	Joey Biwer '19
Oconomowoc High School	Will Grosspietsch '18	Lexi Garczynski '19
Raccoons	Quinn Harris '21	Jacob Spear '21
Oshkosh North High School	Eddie Hanson '19 [1-5]	Talia Sheehan '22 [1-2, 5] Abe Weston '21 [3-4]
Mixed	Adam Biwer '22	Max Krotts '21
Trinity High School (IL)	Katie Faris '19	Rachel Murphy '19
Blazers	Emily Kowal '20 [1-2, 4-5] Elizabeth Gildea '20 [3]	Elizabeth Gildea '20 [1-2, 4-5] Emily Kowal '20 [3]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Matteo Torquati '19	Benny Wild '22
Maroons	Emerson Wright '19 [1-5]	Soyi Park '21 [1-2] Philip Lengyel '21 [3-5]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Robert Dazynski '21	Kate Gallagher '21
Varsity	Cecily Marden '21	Francis Depke '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

Dusty Waters

Division A

Division B

From the notes