Arrowhead High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.91 (fleet 1.47) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–5 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 7–5 against 7.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | LMSS Team Race | skipper | 0.83 | 0.51 | 7–5 | 7.7 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA West League Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 0.73 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 11 | 12.5 | — |
| May Madness | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 2.26 |
| LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.0 | -0.45 |
| Fall Scramble | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.8 | 0.86 |
| Dusty Waters West Great Lake Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.75 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.9 | 0.41 |
| Dusty Waters | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.8 | 3.54 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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