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LMSS Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 10–1
2 St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 7–4
3 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 1 6–5
4 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 6–5
5 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 9–3
6 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 7–5
7 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4–8
8 Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 2–10
9 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 2 1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,425 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 52 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.573 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Minnetonka High School
Skippers 1		14.06
school −0.42, home +0.01		Max Sigel / Nicholas Wyatt 1.35
Greg Bittle / Tristan Wischmeier 1.60 9–1
Lucia Loosbrock / Madeline Wilson 1.60 9–0
William Sweeney / Madeline Wilson 0.82 1–1
William Sweeney / Tristan Wischmeier 0.81 1–0		71%10–1 (91%)+2.2
2St. Paul Academy (MN)
Spartans		43.24Finn Tait / Tj Isberg 0.71
Wyatt Tait / Hayden Graff 0.82
George Moore / Reilly Hannula 1.55		54%7–4 (64%)+1.0
3Southwest High School
Lakers 1		23.61
school +0.10		Calvin Lamosse / Gints Pelecis 1.47
James Jagielski / Sam Fider
Nicole Guiliani / Mason Pirner		65%6–5 (55%)−1.1
4Mahtomedi
Zephyrs		53.19
school +0.26		Matt Dresen / Stella Townshend 0.84
Hank Seum / Nick Lorentz 1.40 5–4
Luke Schmidt / Anika Liner 3–4
Luke Schmidt / Finnian Falvey 3–1
Hank Seum / Finnian Falvey 1.22 1–1		53%6–5 (55%)+0.2
5Sheboygan North High School (WI)
Raiders		81.82Ella Reinemann / Danna Haleem
Sam Delasanta / Wei Si Huang
Patrick Fisher / Lindsay Summers		35%9–3 (75%)+4.8
6Arrowhead High School
Warhawks		33.17
school +0.32		Ella Schieble / Tess Kruetzman
Cole Barre / Ellie Siepmann 1.26
Mei Phillips / Mason Knocke		64%7–5 (58%)−0.7
7Minnetonka High School
Skippers 2		72.19
school −0.42, home +0.01		Jack Callinan / Jack Wherry
Katie Hanley / Carmen Lineer
Tryg Van Wyk / Andrew Bertsch 4–3
Tryg Van Wyk / Rory Cole 0–5		42%4–8 (33%)−1.0
8Washburn High School
Millers		91.42Alexandre Cholat / Natalie Richardson 0.57
Madeline Netzer / Christopher Bridgeman 0.50
Paul Wang / Spence Christensen 0.03		27%2–10 (17%)−1.3
9Southwest High School
Lakers 2		62.26
school +0.10		Finn Edevold / Alex Wicklund
Maeve Katics / Megan Reed
Michelle Andruss / Virginia Higgins		44%1–11 (8%)−4.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
5Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders1.824.279–34.2+2.456.4<1%
1Minnetonka High School Skippers 14.066.0310–17.8+1.972.111%
2St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans3.243.817–46.0+0.560.337%
4Mahtomedi Zephyrs3.193.286–55.8+0.100.058%
6Arrowhead High School Warhawks3.172.857–57.7−0.320.177%
7Minnetonka High School Skippers 22.191.674–85.0−0.520.383%
3Southwest High School Lakers 13.613.046–57.1−0.570.485%
8Washburn High School Millers1.420.582–103.3−0.840.689%
9Southwest High School Lakers 22.26-0.691–115.2−2.955.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Sam DelasantaSheboygan North High School (WI)0.663.119–34.2+2.456.4<1%
Patrick FisherSheboygan North High School (WI)0.342.799–34.2+2.456.4<1%
Ella SchiebleArrowhead High School0.830.517–57.7−0.320.177%
Mei PhillipsArrowhead High School0.400.077–57.7−0.320.177%
Jack CallinanMinnetonka High School0.740.234–85.0−0.520.383%
Alexandre CholatWashburn High School0.57-0.272–103.3−0.840.689%
Finn EdevoldSouthwest High School0.88-2.081–115.2−2.955.8>99%
Michelle AndrussSouthwest High School0.40-2.561–115.2−2.955.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Arrowhead High School WarhawksSouthwest High School Lakers 268%
12Southwest High School Lakers 1Mahtomedi Zephyrs60%
13Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders89%
14Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Washburn High School Millers64%
15St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansSouthwest High School Lakers 270%
16Arrowhead High School WarhawksSheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders74%
17Mahtomedi ZephyrsMinnetonka High School Skippers 272%
18Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Washburn High School Millers91%
19Southwest High School Lakers 1Southwest High School Lakers 274%
110St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansSheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders76%
111Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Arrowhead High School Warhawks57%
112Mahtomedi ZephyrsWashburn High School Millers80%
113Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersSouthwest High School Lakers 120%upset
114Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Southwest High School Lakers 248%upset
115Minnetonka High School Skippers 1St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans70%
116Arrowhead High School WarhawksWashburn High School Millers80%
117Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersMinnetonka High School Skippers 244%upset
118Southwest High School Lakers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 152%
119Mahtomedi ZephyrsSouthwest High School Lakers 268%
120St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansArrowhead High School Warhawks51%
121Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 284%
122Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersMahtomedi Zephyrs25%upset
123Southwest High School Lakers 1Arrowhead High School Warhawks58%
124St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansWashburn High School Millers81%
125Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mahtomedi Zephyrs69%
126Arrowhead High School WarhawksMinnetonka High School Skippers 269%
127St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansSouthwest High School Lakers 143%upset
128Washburn High School MillersSouthwest High School Lakers 234%upset
129Mahtomedi ZephyrsArrowhead High School Warhawks48%upset
130Minnetonka High School Skippers 2St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans31%upset
131Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersSouthwest High School Lakers 241%upset
132Southwest High School Lakers 1Washburn High School Millers85%
133Mahtomedi ZephyrsSt. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans48%upset
134Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Southwest High School Lakers 282%
135Southwest High School Lakers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 275%
136Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersWashburn High School Millers58%
237Minnetonka High School Skippers 1St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans69%
238Mahtomedi ZephyrsSouthwest High School Lakers 140%upset
239Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mahtomedi Zephyrs69%
240St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansSouthwest High School Lakers 143%upset
241Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Southwest High School Lakers 147%upset
242St. Paul Academy (MN) SpartansMahtomedi Zephyrs51%
243Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersArrowhead High School Warhawks26%upset
244Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Washburn High School Millers65%
245Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersSouthwest High School Lakers 242%upset
246Arrowhead High School WarhawksMinnetonka High School Skippers 269%
247Washburn High School MillersSouthwest High School Lakers 234%upset
248Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersMinnetonka High School Skippers 243%upset
249Arrowhead High School WarhawksWashburn High School Millers80%
250Southwest High School Lakers 2Minnetonka High School Skippers 251%
251Sheboygan North High School (WI) RaidersWashburn High School Millers58%
252Arrowhead High School WarhawksSouthwest High School Lakers 267%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2-3-5 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 1-4-6
2 Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-2-4 def. Mahtomedi Zephyrs 3-5-6 OCS
3 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-4-5 def. Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2-3-6
4 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-3-6 def. Washburn High School Millers 2-4-5
5 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 1-2-5 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 3-4-6
6 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-3-6 def. Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2-4-5
7 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1-3-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-5
8 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Washburn High School Millers 4-5-6
9 Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-3-5 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 2-4-6
10 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 1-2-5 def. Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 3-4-6
11 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 4-5-6
12 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1-2-4 def. Washburn High School Millers 3-5-6
13 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Lakers 1 4-5-6
14 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-3-4 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 2-5-6
15 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 4-5-6
16 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-5 def. Washburn High School Millers 3-4-6
17 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-3-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-6
18 Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 3-4-6
19 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1-2-4 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 3-5-6
20 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 1-2-5 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3-4-6
21 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4-5-6
22 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-4-5 def. Mahtomedi Zephyrs 2-3-6
23 Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-2-5 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3-4-6
24 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 1-2-4 def. Washburn High School Millers 3-5-6
25 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-3-4 def. Mahtomedi Zephyrs 2-5-6
26 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-3 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4-5-6 OCS
27 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 2-3-4 def. Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-5-6
28 Washburn High School Millers 1-2-4 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 3-5-6
29 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1-3-4 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2-5-6
30 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-6 def. St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 3-4-5
31 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-3-6 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 2-4-5
32 Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-2-3 def. Washburn High School Millers 4-5-6
33 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1-2-4 def. St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 3-5-6
34 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 4-5-6
35 Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-2-4 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-5-6
36 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-2-5 def. Washburn High School Millers 3-4-6
37 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 2-3-6 def. St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 1-4-5 DSQ
38 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1-2-5 def. Southwest High School Lakers 1 3-4-6
39 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-3-5 def. Mahtomedi Zephyrs 2-4-6 DNF
40 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 2-3-5 def. Southwest High School Lakers 1 1-4-6
41 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-6 def. Southwest High School Lakers 1 3-4-5
42 St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 1-4-5 def. Mahtomedi Zephyrs 2-3-6 DNF
43 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-3-5 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2-4-6 OCS
44 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-4 def. Washburn High School Millers 3-5-6
45 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-2-6 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 3-4-5
46 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-3-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-5
47 Washburn High School Millers 2-3-5 def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 1-4-6 DNF
48 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-6
49 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2-3-5 def. Washburn High School Millers 1-4-6
50 Southwest High School Lakers 2 1-3-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-6
51 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1-2-5 def. Washburn High School Millers 3-4-6
52 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-6 DNF def. Southwest High School Lakers 2 3-4-5

Conditions — 05/18/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1005.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.4 kn
avg  ·  max 16.0 kn
Gusts to 32.7 kn
From ENE (71°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.1 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1005.5 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at Minnetonka — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnetonka in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →