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MISSA Central JV Series #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 20 20
2 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 25 25
3 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 2 31 31
4 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 40 40
5 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 41 MRP 41 MRP
6 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 41 MRP 41 MRP
7 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 44 44
8 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 50 MRP 50 MRP
9 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 52 52
10 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 1 54 54
11 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 55 MRP 55 MRP
12 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1 59 59
13 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 1 62 MRP 62 MRP
14 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 62 62
15 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 63 MRP 63 MRP
16 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 69 MRP 69 MRP
17 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 70 MRP 70 MRP
18 Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Mixed 71 71
19 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ladyz 79 79
20 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves 80 80
21 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Blue 80 80
22 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 2 80 80
23 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 2 81 MRP 81 MRP
24 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy JV 84 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 3 5 8 4 20 Garrett Cook '20
Quin Doughty '21
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 7 4 4 10 25 Will Plovanic '19
Zac Nagel '19
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 2 2 11 3 15 31 Nicholas Peluchiwski '18
Lily Loventhal '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 13 13 11 3 40 Kate Crannell '20
Luke Goldman '21
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 4 6 6 5 41 MRP Jack Clawson '20
Jack Lavanaway '20
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 5 9 1 6 41 MRP Sam Morin '18
Mark Waterstraat '19
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 10 16 10 8 44 Jack Suvari '19
Miles Ford '19
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 DSQ 2 2 1 50 MRP Connor Sheridan '18
Dillon Hollingsworth '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 1 1 DNS DNS 52 Ted Lutton '20
Sammy Stoeber '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 1 DSQ 7 5 17 54 Robert Dazynski '21
Varun Sadasivam '21
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 12 14 7 2 55 MRP Abbey Nugent '21
Wiley Bahr '20
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1 16 15 15 13 59 Adam Cole '19
Caroline Creamer '20
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 1 8 8 17 9 62 MRP Abigail Shanley-Roberts '21
Nate Koh '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 17 DSQ 13 7 62 Will Mccrory '19
Matt Bussey '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 14 3 14 12 63 MRP James Sugrue '20
Kyle Mcdonald '21
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 6 17 12 14 69 MRP Casey Murray '20
Chris Neill '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 11 10 9 20 70 MRP Izzy Cox '19
Moriah Hirsh '20
Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Mixed 9 12 DNS DNS 71 Bailey Lira '20
Talia Sheehan '22
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ladyz 22 20 21 16 79 Grace Beard '21
Kate Naughton '20
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves 18 22 19 21 80 Spencer Darwall '20
Graham Knox '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Blue 20 23 18 19 80 Maxime Visa '20
Henri Amesse-Morrish '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 2 21 21 20 18 80 Cecily Marden '21
Francis Depke '21
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 2 15 19 16 11 81 MRP Luke Ackerman '20
Thaxter Shaw '19
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy JV 19 18 DNF 22 84 Daren Nerad '20
Willem Aspinall '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy JV2222
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Wolves1111
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons24242424
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Blue5555
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Orange3333
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits4444
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 18888
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 29999
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 310101010
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 411111111
Lake Forest AcademyLake Forest Academy Varsity 16666
Lake Forest AcademyLake Forest Academy Varsity 27777
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity 112121212
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity 213131313
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ladyz14141414
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 115151515
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 216161616
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 317171717
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 418181818
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 519191919
Oshkosh North High SchoolOshkosh North High School Mixed20202020
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack21212121
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 123232323
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 222222222
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy JV Daren Nerad '20 Willem Aspinall '21
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves Spencer Darwall '20 Graham Knox '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Blue Maxime Visa '20 Henri Amesse-Morrish '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange Will Mccrory '19 Matt Bussey '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits Jack Suvari '19 Miles Ford '19
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 1 Abigail Shanley-Roberts '21 Nate Koh '20
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 2 Luke Ackerman '20 Thaxter Shaw '19
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 Casey Murray '20 Chris Neill '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 Connor Sheridan '18 Dillon Hollingsworth '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 Jack Clawson '20 Jack Lavanaway '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 James Sugrue '20 Kyle Mcdonald '21
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1 Adam Cole '19 Caroline Creamer '20
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 2 Nicholas Peluchiwski '18 Lily Loventhal '20
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ladyz Grace Beard '21 Kate Naughton '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 Ted Lutton '20 Sammy Stoeber '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 Abbey Nugent '21 Wiley Bahr '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 Izzy Cox '19 Moriah Hirsh '20
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 Garrett Cook '20 Quin Doughty '21
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 Will Plovanic '19 Zac Nagel '19
Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Mixed Bailey Lira '20 Talia Sheehan '22
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack Kate Crannell '20 Luke Goldman '21
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons Sam Morin '18 Mark Waterstraat '19
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 1 Robert Dazynski '21 Varun Sadasivam '21
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 2 Cecily Marden '21 Francis Depke '21

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From ESE (116°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1017.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →