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SAISA Cressy Qualifier Radial

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 35
2 Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 57
3 Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 73
4 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 75
5 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 1 122
6 Crown Leadership Academy Crown Leadership Academy Lucas Sawin '20 132
7 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Nick Reeser '21 146
8 Savannah Country Day School Savannah Country Day School Collin Porter '19 148
9 Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Kenny Corsig '19 167
10 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 171
11 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Scott Harris '18 179
12 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Blaire Mccarthy '18 214
13 Palm Harbor University High School Palm Harbor University High School Brett Putnam '18 222
14 Antilles School Antilles School Mateo Di Blasi '21 226
15 Design & Architecture Senior High School (DASH) Design & Architecture Senior High School (DASH) Colin Dorsey '19 231
16 McIntosh High School McIntosh High School Daniel Escudero '20 242
17 Antilles School Antilles School Julian Van Den Driessche '20 249
18 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Chris Purcell '21 273
19 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heather Kerns '20 277
20 Robinson High School Robinson High School Katie Nelson '20 279
21 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 288
22 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Will Murray '20 311
23 William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Ethan Homberger '21 324
24 Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Callista Hopkins '19 330
25 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heidi Hicks '21 338
26 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Brandon Geller '19 347
27 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 348
28 William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Denver Rozzo '19 348
29 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Andrew Florio '20 366
30 Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Allison Weinbecker '18 367
31 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Anika Boicheff '20 379
32 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Emily Allen '21 416
33 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Colin Lawther '20 423
34 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Noah Fischer '19 437
35 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Adam Kaplan '21 444
36 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Megan Fetterley '19 463
37 Wando Wando Sydney Register '18 480
38 Riverview High School Riverview High School Lars Osell '17 496
39 Manatee High School Manatee High School Riley Baugh '20 528
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 1 2 5 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 35
Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 2 5 1 1 6 4 3 5 4 2 4 3 11 6 57
Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 6 1 4 7 4 5 4 3 2 4 8 2 15 8 73
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 3 3 6 8 2 2 2 4 8 3 7 16 7 4 75
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 1 17 7 8 15 3 3 18 2 5 6 19 4 6 9 122
Crown Leadership Academy Crown Leadership Academy Lucas Sawin '20 20 4 2 2 10 14 13 8 6 5 14 14 17 3 132
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Nick Reeser '21 10 16 10 11 16 8 7 14 7 9 3 11 19 5 146
Savannah Country Day School Savannah Country Day School Collin Porter '19 14 8 14 17 12 6 5 6 3 7 6 24 3 23 148
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Kenny Corsig '19 8 17 16 3 17 10 6 9 13 22 5 17 9 15 167
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 9 10 12 21 7 9 8 12 11 11 12 19 20 10 171
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Scott Harris '18 5 15 25 9 9 18 11 18 12 12 18 13 12 2 179
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Blaire Mccarthy '18 16 13 9 10 11 30 26 22 19 20 2 10 14 12 214
Palm Harbor University High School Palm Harbor University High School Brett Putnam '18 4 12 17 13 8 17 10 7 23 10 21 20 RAF 20 222
Antilles School Antilles School Mateo Di Blasi '21 12 9 18 24 24 24 15 19 14 15 15 8 13 16 226
Design & Architecture Senior High School (DASH) Design & Architecture Senior High School (DASH) Colin Dorsey '19 7 6 3 18 5 7 36 20 15 14 26 22 24 28 231
McIntosh High School McIntosh High School Daniel Escudero '20 DNF 19 OCS 19 19 11 12 10 10 8 20 12 21 1 242
Antilles School Antilles School Julian Van Den Driessche '20 13 14 11 6 20 26 21 24 17 26 23 6 16 26 249
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Chris Purcell '21 DNS 22 13 5 13 15 19 34 36 23 11 7 10 25 273
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heather Kerns '20 29 11 7 16 23 16 16 17 18 13 25 29 28 29 277
Robinson High School Robinson High School Katie Nelson '20 19 20 23 12 30 19 34 29 29 27 17 9 4 7 279
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 11 21 22 14 15 25 9 13 30 19 27 33 25 24 288
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Will Murray '20 21 23 29 25 22 20 14 11 16 21 34 21 27 27 311
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Ethan Homberger '21 23 24 21 23 25 28 37 16 20 17 31 18 23 18 324
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School Callista Hopkins '19 26 OCS 27 20 18 33 28 32 21 DNF 13 5 8 19 330
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heidi Hicks '21 30 28 24 31 27 21 17 15 9 25 22 28 30 31 338
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Brandon Geller '19 DNF 38 26 22 36 23 20 28 34 28 10 26 5 11 347
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 18 27 19 30 21 22 22 21 32 24 30 30 22 30 348
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Denver Rozzo '19 28 18 15 26 26 13 33 30 24 35 32 25 26 17 348
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Andrew Florio '20 25 31 32 29 31 32 25 31 28 31 9 23 18 21 366
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Allison Weinbecker '18 15 37 20 27 14 12 31 27 22 32 28 35 32 35 367
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Anika Boicheff '20 33 33 31 32 38 39 27 33 33 34 16 15 2 13 379
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Emily Allen '21 31 30 33 28 34 38 24 25 27 30 29 34 31 22 416
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Colin Lawther '20 22 34 36 33 29 31 29 37 25 33 24 27 29 34 423
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Noah Fischer '19 24 25 30 35 35 29 35 23 DNS 29 35 31 33 33 437
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Adam Kaplan '21 27 32 28 34 39 36 30 35 26 16 37 36 36 32 444
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Megan Fetterley '19 34 29 34 37 33 35 32 36 31 18 36 37 34 37 463
Wando Wando Sydney Register '18 36 35 37 36 28 37 38 26 35 36 33 32 35 36 480
Riverview High School Riverview High School Lars Osell '17 35 26 35 38 32 27 23 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 496
Manatee High School Manatee High School Riley Baugh '20 32 36 38 39 37 34 39 DNS DNS DNS 38 DNS 37 38 528
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Immaculata La Salle High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658209658
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers 1206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614206614

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  39 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Chase Carraway '18Cape Fear Academy14/143.165.62+2.4699th → 99th18.3<1%2.5 / 11.6
2Lillian Myers '19Riverview High School Varsity 114/142.624.83+2.2194th → 99th17.0<1%4.1 / 14.5
3Hallie Schiffman '18Pine View School14/142.834.35+1.5296th → 99th9.21%5.2 / 13.4
4Connor Nelson '19H. B. Plant High School Panthers 214/142.964.28+1.3298th → 99th7.21%5.4 / 12.8
6Lucas Sawin '20Crown Leadership Academy14/142.573.24+0.6792nd → 99th2.29%9.4 / 14.9
7Nick Reeser '21St. Thomas Aquinas High School14/141.28u3.20+1.9266th → 99th14.62%10.4 / 22.1
8Collin Porter '19Savannah Country Day School14/142.382.99+0.6190th → 98th1.910%10.6 / 15.8
9Kenny Corsig '19Myers Park High School14/142.262.88+0.6188th → 97th1.921%11.9 / 16.6
10Elizabeth Shanahan '19Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 314/142.202.90+0.6986th → 97th2.414%12.2 / 16.7
11Scott Harris '18John T. Hoggard High School14/142.082.74+0.6684th → 95th2.219%12.8 / 17.6
12Blaire Mccarthy '18St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 214/141.372.29+0.9368th → 88th4.214%15.3 / 21.5
13Brett Putnam '18Palm Harbor University High School14/141.872.58+0.7181st → 93rd2.431%15.9 / 18.7
14Mateo Di Blasi '21Antilles School Hurricanes 114/142.582.30−0.2893rd → 88th0.567%16.1 / 14.7
15Colin Dorsey '19Design & Architecture Senior High School (DASH)14/141.25u1.95+0.7066th → 83rd2.416%16.5 / 22.1
16Daniel Escudero '20McIntosh High School14/143.422.59−0.8299th → 93rd4.296%17.3 / 10.5
17Julian Van Den Driessche '20Antilles School Hurricanes 214/142.512.01−0.5092nd → 83rd1.774%17.8 / 15.2
18Chris Purcell '21Gulliver Preparatory School14/141.941.53−0.4282nd → 74th0.957%19.5 / 18.6
19Heather Kerns '20Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 214/141.571.75+0.1874th → 79th0.244%19.8 / 20.6
20Katie Nelson '20Robinson High School14/140.741.63+0.8947th → 76th3.917%19.9 / 25.1
21Matthew King '20Sarasota High School Sailors 214/141.461.66+0.2072nd → 77th0.247%20.6 / 21.1
22Will Murray '20Sarasota High School Sailors 314/141.521.52−0.0174th → 74th0.060%22.2 / 20.7
23Ethan Homberger '21William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer 214/141.261.38+0.1266th → 69th0.158%23.1 / 22.2
24Callista Hopkins '19Lakewood High School14/141.511.51−0.0073rd → 73rd0.069%23.6 / 20.7
25Heidi Hicks '21Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 414/141.551.27−0.2774th → 66th0.578%24.1 / 20.7
26Brandon Geller '19H. B. Plant High School Panthers 114/142.000.87−1.1383rd → 52nd8.288%24.8 / 18.0
27Denver Rozzo '19William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer 114/141.16u1.09−0.0663rd → 60th0.066%24.9 / 22.6
29Andrew Florio '20Sarasota High School Sailors 114/140.691.07+0.3845th → 60th0.854%26.1 / 25.4
30Allison Weinbecker '18Bishop Kenny High School - FL14/141.350.80−0.5668th → 50th2.179%26.2 / 21.7
31Anika Boicheff '20Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 114/140.900.44−0.4654th → 35th1.371%27.1 / 24.0
32Emily Allen '21St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 114/141.020.62−0.4058th → 43rd1.193%29.7 / 23.5
33Colin Lawther '20Osceola Fundamental High School14/140.250.46+0.2129th → 35th0.270%30.2 / 27.3
34Noah Fischer '19Pine Crest School14/140.790.58−0.2150th → 41st0.389%31.2 / 24.6
35Adam Kaplan '21Ransom Everglades School14/141.09-0.00−1.1061st → 21st8.195%31.7 / 23.0
36Megan Fetterley '19James Island Charter High School14/140.50-0.06−0.5638th → 20th1.991%33.1 / 26.3
37Sydney Register '18Wando14/141.24-0.40−1.6465th → 13th19.799%34.3 / 22.3
38Lars Osell '17Riverview High School Varsity 214/141.06u0.17−0.8960th → 26th2.7>99%35.4 / 23.1
39Riley Baugh '20Manatee High School14/14-0.02-1.53−1.5021st → 1st6.0>99%37.7 / 28.8

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 77°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.4 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From E (79°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1018.0 hPa Rain0.15 in

What this breeze does at Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →