Navigate

2018 Norcal 4 Silver Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates 21 21
2 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1 25 25
3 San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School San Francisco 1 33 33
4 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2 41 41
5 The Urban School The Urban School Blues 45 45
6 San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School San Francisco 2 46 46
7 Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1 47 47
8 Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 49 49
9 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 1 50 50
10 Los Gatos High School Los Gatos High School Wildcats 55 55
11 Head Royce Head Royce Jayhawks 63 63
12 Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 63 63
13 International HS - SF International HS - SF Jaguars 72 72
14 San Domenico High School San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 1 73 73
15 Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 4 74 74
16 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 75 75
17 San Domenico High School San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 2 77 77
18 Lowell High School - CA Lowell High School - CA Cardinals 1 80 80
19 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 82 82
20 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 3 93 93
21 Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2 98 98
22 Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 2 100 100
23 Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 3 107 107
24 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 2 113 113
25 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 116 116
26 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 120 120
27 Lowell High School - CA Lowell High School - CA Cardinals 2 120 120
28 Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View 124 124
29 Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 1 127 127
30 SOTA High School SOTA High School SOTA 150 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates 8 5 1 2 5 21 Jt Long '21
Eamonn Bateman '23
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1 9 7 4 4 1 25 Jonah Benningfield '20 [1, 3, 5]
Ian Brown '21 [2, 4]
Lilah Parker '22 [1, 3, 5]
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School San Francisco 1 1 1 10 19 2 33 Max Stuebe '22
James Iskander '22
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2 4 12 9 6 10 41 Phoebe Mcmahon '21
Jacob Kaplan '21
The Urban School The Urban School Blues 12 3 2 17 11 45 Tristan Bellevin '21 [1-5]
Christopher Mullen '21 [1, 3, 5]
Philo Judson '22 [2, 4]
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School San Francisco 2 3 16 3 5 19 46 Anson Walker '21
Charlie Sears '22
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1 14 11 16 3 3 47 Michael Mannik '21
Laurence Randall '20
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 17 10 7 8 7 49 Gage Bradford '20
Cathy Kim '20
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 1 2 9 11 16 12 50 Bodhi "Bo" Tippo '21
Ava Shulman '20
Los Gatos High School Los Gatos High School Wildcats 5 6 17 11 16 55 Dawson Xuan '22
Dana Yong '25
Head Royce Head Royce Jayhawks 6 18 8 14 17 63 Christopher Feely '22
Parker Mergelkamp '21
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 18 2 23 7 13 63 Gregory Kosmowski '22
Nadia Gibbons '21
International HS - SF International HS - SF Jaguars 13 13 21 10 15 72 Amelia Nugent '21 [1-2, 5]
Alexander Kasolas '22 [3-4]
Alexander Kasolas '22 [1-2, 5]
Amelia Nugent '21 [3-4]
San Domenico High School San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 1 21 20 14 9 9 73 Matisse Paulson '22
Rafael Sanchez '22
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 4 15 15 5 18 21 74 George Clyde '22 [1-5]
Lily Voinar Fowler '22 [1-2, 5]
Nicolas Canivet '22 [3-4]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 23 14 13 1 24 75 Zoe Flemate '21 [1-5]
Isabella Gamez '22 [1-2, 5]
Sophia Wingenstam '22 [3-4]
San Domenico High School San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 2 10 DNF 20 12 4 77 Hiroki Coyle '21
Julia Vierra '22
Lowell High School - CA Lowell High School - CA Cardinals 1 16 4 15 27 18 80 Anna Novolt '22
Darius Dragnea '22
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 24 22 6 22 8 82 Kieran Elrod '21 [1-5]
Eli Wood '22 [1-2, 5]
David Jelniker '21 [3-4]
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 3 22 8 18 23 22 93 Andrew Andrzejek '22
Thalia Altschul '22
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2 25 21 12 26 14 98 Cody Levine '22 [1-5]
Joel Randall '22 [1-2]
Emilia Suska '22 [3-5]
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 2 7 23 24 21 25 100 Nicholas Jerez '24
Devon Moxley '23
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 3 DNF 27 28 15 6 107 Eli Kelley '20
Conor Martin '20
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 2 11 24 25 24 29 113 Morgan Moseley '22
Paddy O'Connor '22
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 19 25 19 25 28 116 Charles Bohner '20
Charles Bohner '21
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 20 DNF 22 20 27 120 Payton Hildebrand '20
Izzy Williams '21
Lowell High School - CA Lowell High School - CA Cardinals 2 26 28 27 13 26 120 Natalie Novolt '22
Chloe Marinerstein '22
Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View 27 17 29 28 23 124 Calvin Smith '22 [1-5]
Nathan Freed '23 [1-2, 5]
Will King '23 [3-4]
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 1 DNF 19 26 DNF 20 127 Sara Govert '22
Mark Hsia '24
SOTA High School SOTA High School SOTA DNF 26 DNF DNF DNF 150 Ian Grossman '23
Corbett Malenfant '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Berkeley High SchoolBerkeley High School Yellowjackets 16464646464
Berkeley High SchoolBerkeley High School Yellowjackets 25959595959
Berkeley High SchoolBerkeley High School Yellowjackets 36060606060
Berkeley High SchoolBerkeley High School Yellowjackets 49595959595
Convent and Stuart Hall High SchoolsConvent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs88888
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 13434343434
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 23333333333
Harbor High SchoolHarbor High School Pirates106106106106106
Head RoyceHead Royce Jayhawks5252525252
International HS - SFInternational HS - SF Jaguars77777
Los Gatos High SchoolLos Gatos High School Wildcats105105105105105
Lowell High School - CALowell High School - CA Cardinals 15858585858
Lowell High School - CALowell High School - CA Cardinals 21313131313
Mountain View High School (CA)Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View3535353535
Piedmont High SchoolPiedmont High School Varsity 14545454545
Piedmont High SchoolPiedmont High School Varsity 25050505050
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants 1123123123123123
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants 21616161616
San Domenico High SchoolSan Domenico High School Panthers Silver 1136136136136136
San Domenico High SchoolSan Domenico High School Panthers Silver 2135135135135135
San Francisco University High SchoolSan Francisco University High School San Francisco 111111
San Francisco University High SchoolSan Francisco University High School San Francisco 222222
SOTA High SchoolSOTA High School SOTA3030303030
Stevenson SchoolStevenson School Pirates9797979797
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 17979797979
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2140140140140140
The Bay School of San FranciscoThe Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 18383838383
The Bay School of San FranciscoThe Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 28282828282
The Bay School of San FranciscoThe Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 38181818181
The Urban SchoolThe Urban School Blues66666
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1 Michael Mannik '21 Laurence Randall '20
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2 Cody Levine '22 [1-5] Joel Randall '22 [1-2]
Emilia Suska '22 [3-5]
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 3 Eli Kelley '20 Conor Martin '20
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 4 George Clyde '22 [1-5] Lily Voinar Fowler '22 [1-2, 5]
Nicolas Canivet '22 [3-4]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs Gregory Kosmowski '22 Nadia Gibbons '21
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 Kieran Elrod '21 [1-5] Eli Wood '22 [1-2, 5]
David Jelniker '21 [3-4]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 Zoe Flemate '21 [1-5] Isabella Gamez '22 [1-2, 5]
Sophia Wingenstam '22 [3-4]
Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates Jt Long '21 Eamonn Bateman '23
Head Royce Head Royce Jayhawks Christopher Feely '22 Parker Mergelkamp '21
International HS - SF International HS - SF Jaguars Amelia Nugent '21 [1-2, 5]
Alexander Kasolas '22 [3-4]		 Alexander Kasolas '22 [1-2, 5]
Amelia Nugent '21 [3-4]
Los Gatos High School Los Gatos High School Wildcats Dawson Xuan '22 Dana Yong '25
Lowell High School - CA Lowell High School - CA Cardinals 1 Anna Novolt '22 Darius Dragnea '22
Lowell High School - CA Lowell High School - CA Cardinals 2 Natalie Novolt '22 Chloe Marinerstein '22
Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View Calvin Smith '22 [1-5] Nathan Freed '23 [1-2, 5]
Will King '23 [3-4]
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 1 Sara Govert '22 Mark Hsia '24
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 2 Nicholas Jerez '24 Devon Moxley '23
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 1 Bodhi "Bo" Tippo '21 Ava Shulman '20
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 2 Morgan Moseley '22 Paddy O'Connor '22
SOTA High School SOTA High School SOTA Ian Grossman '23 Corbett Malenfant '22
San Domenico High School San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 1 Matisse Paulson '22 Rafael Sanchez '22
San Domenico High School San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 2 Hiroki Coyle '21 Julia Vierra '22
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School San Francisco 1 Max Stuebe '22 James Iskander '22
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School San Francisco 2 Anson Walker '21 Charlie Sears '22
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates Gage Bradford '20 Cathy Kim '20
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 Payton Hildebrand '20 Izzy Williams '21
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 Charles Bohner '20 Charles Bohner '21
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1 Jonah Benningfield '20 [1, 3, 5]
Ian Brown '21 [2, 4]		 Lilah Parker '22 [1, 3, 5]
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2 Phoebe Mcmahon '21 Jacob Kaplan '21
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 3 Andrew Andrzejek '22 Thalia Altschul '22
The Urban School The Urban School Blues Tristan Bellevin '21 [1-5] Christopher Mullen '21 [1, 3, 5]
Philo Judson '22 [2, 4]

Conditions — 11/04/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From SW (215°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Alameda: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Alameda by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Alameda, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →