2019 Lake Mayer Open

HostRichmond Hill
Date01/12/2019
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Wando High School	Wando Black	12	18	30
2	Wando High School	Wando Red	31	25	56
3	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	23	39	62
4	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny 1	65	29	94
5	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	30	72	102
6	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny 2	70	43	113
7	James Island Charter High School	Varsity 2	56	58	114
8	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	56	62	118
9	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity 1	56	72	128
10	James Island Charter High School	Varsity 1	82	62	144
11	Glynn Academy	Varsity	76	78	154
12	Beaufort High School	Varsity	74	96	170
13	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity 2	97	74	171

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Wando High School	Wando Black	1	1	1	1	1	3	2	2	12	Zack Carvajal '22 Lauren Creech '19
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	2	3	3	4	2	2	4	3	23	Thomas Mazzeo '22 Jack Gigante '22
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	3	2	9	2	9	1	3	1	30	Chris Mccollum '20 No Show
Wando High School	Wando Red	4	4	5	6	3	4	1	4	31	Heyward Main '19 Addison Terry '19
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	6	5	2	7	11	10	10	5	56	Chris Hartman '20 [1-8] Evan Chenard '20 [1-4] Bobby Missert '20 [5-8]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity 1	8	10	6	3	7	9	5	8	56	Cohen Hughes '19 Elle Jacobsson '19
James Island Charter High School	Varsity 2	11	7	4	8	8	6	6	6	56	Jack Mckenzie '22 Everett Davis '19
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny 1	7	6	10	10	4	7	11	10	65	Colin Bailey '19 Tia Schoening '22
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny 2	10	13	7	11	6	8	8	7	70	Charlie Lawrence '22 Jonah Brewer '21
Beaufort High School	Varsity	5	8	8	5	10	12	13	13	74	Edmund Mccalister '20 [1-4] Court Martin '21 [5] Brian Rogers '22 [6] Brock Blonski '22 [7-8] Brock Blonski '22 [1-2] Brian Rogers '22 [3-5, 7-8] Court Martin '21 [6]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	9	9	13	9	5	13	7	11	76	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [1-2, 7-8] Brooke Zell '20 [3-4] Zane Buchli '22 [5-6] Sebastian Helgesen '23 [1-2, 7-8] Emma Williams '23 [3-4] Sarah Weese '20 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity 1	12	12	11	12	12	5	9	9	82	Mcgill Woodward '21 Gabriel Medlin '22
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity 2	13	11	12	13	13	11	12	12	97	Joseph Lane '19 Augusta Rose '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Wando High School	Wando Black	1	3	3	3	2	1	2	3	18	William Hussey '22 Ian Bosse '21
Wando High School	Wando Red	3	5	1	2	4	2	7	1	25	Robert Silcox '21 Tyler Payzant '21
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny 1	4	4	4	4	6	4	1	2	29	Joseph Bradley Iv '19 Caroline Goodwin '21
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	8	2	2	6	7	5	4	5	39	Neil Bunce '21 [1-8] Nikolas Mcgill '20 [1-4] Griffin Lee '23 [5-8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny 2	2	1	6	1	8	11	8	6	43	Ella Schoening '19 Jacob Soulby '22
James Island Charter High School	Varsity 2	10	9	10	8	1	10	6	4	58	William Rawlings '22 Will Connelly '22
James Island Charter High School	Varsity 1	7	7	12	10	3	7	3	13	62	Matthew Rourk '21 Cari Staples '21
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	13	12	5	7	5	3	10	7	62	Collin Flannery '19 [1-8] Bobby Missert '20 [1-4] Evan Chenard '20 [5-8]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	5	8	13	12	9	9	5	11	72	Julian Galpin '23 Wade Morris '24
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity 1	11	11	8	5	12	8	9	8	72	Sarah Cunningham '20 Patricia George '20
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity 2	6	6	7	13	10	12	11	9	74	Andrew Foley '21 No Show
Glynn Academy	Varsity	9	10	9	9	13	6	12	10	78	Henry Beimler '23 [1-2, 7-8] Robert Bland '22 [3-4] Nikolas Mcgill '20 [5-6] Shep Davenport '23 [1-2, 7-8] Griffin Lee '23 [3-4] Jackson Searles '22 [5-6]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	12	13	11	11	11	13	13	12	96	James Fabian '23 [1-2, 5-6] Brock Blonski '22 [3-4] Brian Rogers '22 [7] Court Martin '21 [8] Court Martin '21 [1-2, 5-7] James Fabian '23 [3-4] Brian Rogers '22 [8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Beaufort High School Varsity	6	6	11	11	13	13	15	15
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	1	1	3	3	5	5	10	10
Glynn Academy Varsity	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
James Island Charter High School Varsity 1	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
James Island Charter High School Varsity 2	5	5	10	10	12	12	14	14
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	3	3	5	5	10	10	12	12
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
Richmond Hill High School Varsity 1	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5
Richmond Hill High School Varsity 2	4	4	6	6	11	11	13	13
Wando High School Wando Black	2	2	4	4	6	6	11	11
Wando High School Wando Red	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Beaufort High School Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	2	2	4	4	6	6	11	11
Glynn Academy Varsity	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
James Island Charter High School Varsity 1	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
James Island Charter High School Varsity 2	6	6	11	11	13	13	15	15
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	4	4	6	6	11	11	13	13
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5
Richmond Hill High School Varsity 1	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6
Richmond Hill High School Varsity 2	5	5	10	10	12	12	14	14
Wando High School Wando Black	3	3	5	5	10	10	12	12
Wando High School Wando Red	1	1	3	3	5	5	10	10

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Beaufort High School	Edmund Mccalister '20 [1-4] Court Martin '21 [5] Brian Rogers '22 [6] Brock Blonski '22 [7-8]	Brock Blonski '22 [1-2] Brian Rogers '22 [3-5, 7-8] Court Martin '21 [6]
Varsity	James Fabian '23 [1-2, 5-6] Brock Blonski '22 [3-4] Brian Rogers '22 [7] Court Martin '21 [8]	Court Martin '21 [1-2, 5-7] James Fabian '23 [3-4] Brian Rogers '22 [8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Colin Bailey '19	Tia Schoening '22
Bishop Kenny 1	Joseph Bradley Iv '19	Caroline Goodwin '21
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Charlie Lawrence '22	Jonah Brewer '21
Bishop Kenny 2	Ella Schoening '19	Jacob Soulby '22
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Chris Mccollum '20	No Show
ESJ	Julian Galpin '23	Wade Morris '24
Glynn Academy	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [1-2, 7-8] Brooke Zell '20 [3-4] Zane Buchli '22 [5-6]	Sebastian Helgesen '23 [1-2, 7-8] Emma Williams '23 [3-4] Sarah Weese '20 [5-6]
Varsity	Henry Beimler '23 [1-2, 7-8] Robert Bland '22 [3-4] Nikolas Mcgill '20 [5-6]	Shep Davenport '23 [1-2, 7-8] Griffin Lee '23 [3-4] Jackson Searles '22 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School	Mcgill Woodward '21	Gabriel Medlin '22
Varsity 1	Matthew Rourk '21	Cari Staples '21
James Island Charter High School	Jack Mckenzie '22	Everett Davis '19
Varsity 2	William Rawlings '22	Will Connelly '22
John Paul II (SC)	Thomas Mazzeo '22	Jack Gigante '22
Varsity	Neil Bunce '21 [1-8]	Nikolas Mcgill '20 [1-4] Griffin Lee '23 [5-8]
Lake Norman High School	Chris Hartman '20 [1-8]	Evan Chenard '20 [1-4] Bobby Missert '20 [5-8]
Wildcats	Collin Flannery '19 [1-8]	Bobby Missert '20 [1-4] Evan Chenard '20 [5-8]
Richmond Hill High School	Cohen Hughes '19	Elle Jacobsson '19
Varsity 1	Sarah Cunningham '20	Patricia George '20
Richmond Hill High School	Joseph Lane '19	Augusta Rose '21
Varsity 2	Andrew Foley '21	No Show
Wando High School	Zack Carvajal '22	Lauren Creech '19
Wando Black	William Hussey '22	Ian Bosse '21
Wando High School	Heyward Main '19	Addison Terry '19
Wando Red	Robert Silcox '21	Tyler Payzant '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2019 Lake Mayer Open

Division A

Division B

From the notes