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NYISA-NW Fall Fleet Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 14 11 25
2 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 22 22 44
3 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 20 42 62
4 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 40 34 74
5 Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 44 40 84
6 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 57 30 87
7 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 36 65 101
8 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 53 51 104
9 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 64 52 116
10 Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 46 71 117
11 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 80 58 138
12 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 81 78 159
13 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 92 96 188
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 2 3 3 1 1 3 14 Luke Tota '20
Brooks Turcotte '23
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 3 6 1 5 2 2 1 20 Grace Cannon '19
Madeline Love '19
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 2 1 2 1 3 7 6 22 Ethan Stoffman '20
Sam Thompson '20
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 8 3 4 7 4 6 4 36 Charlie Robinson '22
Megan Williams '22
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 4 4 8 4 5 5 10 40 Olivia Callon '20
Sierra Bornheim '20
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 9 5 6 8 6 8 2 44 Nicholas Barillari '22
Sydney Kelsch '22
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 5 8 5 6 10 3 9 46 Cooper Petzing '23 [1-7]
Isaac Aymerich '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Genevieve Heiermann '23 [3-4, 7]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 7 9 10 10 8 4 5 53 Mark Hofmeister '20
Braeden Bommarahau '21
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 6 7 11 9 7 10 7 57 Sam Balanevsky '22
Gavin Sheehan '20
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 10 10 7 11 9 9 8 64 Benjamin Hosford '21
Cameron Bernabei '21
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 80 Clementine Matzky '21
Bridget Taylor '20
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 DNF DNF 9 2 DNS DNS DNS 81 Malte Schaaf '21
Mark Hofmeister '20
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 11 12 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS 92 Aidan Love '21
Braden Rottner '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 11 William Turner '20 [1-7]
Madi Overbeck '21 [1-4]
Cole Carlson '20 [5-7]
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 1 3 6 1 6 3 2 22 Samantha Jensen '20
Michael Matuch '20
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 4 4 9 2 2 4 5 30 Rory Mcclenehan '20
Anderson Osinski '22
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 3 6 3 6 5 7 4 34 Lena Fine '21 [1-7]
Pierson Deloe '20 [1-4, 7]
Peter Higgins '22 [5-6]
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 8 10 4 3 7 2 6 40 Joshua Bloom '19
Matthew Kennedy '20
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 7 5 10 8 3 6 3 42 Julia Beck '20
Olivia Tedesco '22
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 10 2 11 11 4 5 8 51 Garrett Grenauer '20
No Show
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 9 7 5 7 8 9 7 52 Megan Thurley '21 [1-7]
Grace Hoffman '19 [1-4]
Elise Hoffman '22 [5-7]
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 6 11 2 9 10 10 10 58 Emily Davis '19
Grace Colpoys '20
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 11 8 8 10 11 8 9 65 Andrew Fors '22 [1-7]
Patricia O'Donnell '21 [1-4]
Sal Deni '22 [5-7]
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 5 9 12 DNF 9 11 11 71 Juliana Lanz '23
Nora Vandermeid '23
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 12 12 7 5 DNS DNS DNS 78 Nathan Jarosz '21
No Show
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 13 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 96 Benjamin Bodkin '21
Zachary Barney '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks4433885
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 1221010776
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 23388559
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders1010776611
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles88559912
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs7766111113
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 1559912121
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 266111113134
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights991212112
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans11111313443
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 11212112210
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2131344338
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans112210107

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks221010776
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 13388559
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 21010776611
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders88559912
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles7766111113
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs559912121
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 166111113134
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 2991212112
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights11111313443
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans1212112210
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1131344338
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2112210107
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans4433885
School / Team SkipperCrew
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Grace Cannon '19 Madeline Love '19
Red-Tailed Hawks Julia Beck '20 Olivia Tedesco '22
Canisius High School Canisius High School Sam Balanevsky '22 Gavin Sheehan '20
Crusaders 1 Rory Mcclenehan '20 Anderson Osinski '22
Canisius High School Canisius High School Aidan Love '21 Braden Rottner '20
Crusaders 2 Benjamin Bodkin '21 Zachary Barney '21
Fairport High School Fairport High School Benjamin Hosford '21 Cameron Bernabei '21
Red Raiders Megan Thurley '21 [1-7] Grace Hoffman '19 [1-4]
Elise Hoffman '22 [5-7]
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Cooper Petzing '23 [1-7] Isaac Aymerich '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Genevieve Heiermann '23 [3-4, 7]
Eagles Juliana Lanz '23 Nora Vandermeid '23
Mercy High School Mercy High School Clementine Matzky '21 Bridget Taylor '20
Monarchs Emily Davis '19 Grace Colpoys '20
Nichols School Nichols School Ethan Stoffman '20 Sam Thompson '20
Vikings 1 Samantha Jensen '20 Michael Matuch '20
Nichols School Nichols School Charlie Robinson '22 Megan Williams '22
Vikings 2 Andrew Fors '22 [1-7] Patricia O'Donnell '21 [1-4]
Sal Deni '22 [5-7]
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Olivia Callon '20 Sierra Bornheim '20
Knights Lena Fine '21 [1-7] Pierson Deloe '20 [1-4, 7]
Peter Higgins '22 [5-6]
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Luke Tota '20 Brooks Turcotte '23
Trojans William Turner '20 [1-7] Madi Overbeck '21 [1-4]
Cole Carlson '20 [5-7]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Mark Hofmeister '20 Braeden Bommarahau '21
Marauders 1 Garrett Grenauer '20 No Show
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Malte Schaaf '21 Mark Hofmeister '20
Marauders 2 Nathan Jarosz '21 No Show
Williamsville North Williamsville North Nicholas Barillari '22 Sydney Kelsch '22
Spartans Joshua Bloom '19 Matthew Kennedy '20

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From N (359°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1024.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Buffalo Seminary/Canisius/Nichols: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Seminary/Canisius/Nichols by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Buffalo Seminary/Canisius/Nichols, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →