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SAISA South Points 1 - JV 2018

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School JV 27 33 60
2 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School JV 46 24 70
3 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School JV Black 50 21 71
4 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School JV1 67 22 89
5 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School JV 18 75 93
6 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 46 57 103
7 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 60 55 115
8 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 66 68 134
9 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 80 68 148
10 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 84 74 158
11 Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights 55 108 163
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School JV 1 2 1 3 1 3 2 1 4 18 Kyle Funderburk '20 [1-9]
Cassie Urbenz '19 [1-2, 5-9]
Caitlyn Pagano '22 [3-4]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School JV OCS 1 2 4 2 1 1 3 1 27 Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 [1-9]
Michael Morley '22 [1-8]
Daniel Neville '21 [9]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School JV 3 DNS 8 2 4 2 4 2 9 46 Heidi Hicks '21
Zuri Patel '20
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 3 46 Liam De Araujo '21
Felipe Clavijo '21
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School JV Black 2 7 3 1 3 6 11 9 8 50 Garrett Brooks '22
Noelle Dennis '22
Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights DNS 3 7 6 7 5 6 7 2 55 Reid Nelson '23
Nick Joyner '22
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 4 4 9 8 6 7 8 8 6 60 Griffin Barron '21
Cesar Yudin '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 5 5 4 9 10 8 9 6 10 66 No Show
Jack Donovan '20
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School JV1 6 8 5 7 11 11 3 4 DNS 67 Luke King '21
Kailin Foster '20
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 9 9 11 10 8 9 7 10 7 80 Jacob Wolfe '21
Lucas Vianna '21
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 8 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 5 84 Kenan Walsh '20 [1-9]
Ryan Ince '21 [1-4]
Siena Pollis '22 [5-9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School JV Black 1 4 1 2 1 2 2 3 5 21 Sean Toro '19
Spencer Brooks '20
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School JV1 2 3 3 1 5 1 1 2 4 22 Thommi Gritt '22
Ashton Graber '22
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School JV 3 1 2 4 3 4 4 1 2 24 Ethan Danielson '22 [1-6]
Guthrie Braun '22 [7-9]
Thomas Cura '21 [1-6]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School JV 4 2 7 3 4 5 3 4 1 33 Kaitlyn Hamilton '22 [1-4]
Garrett Dixon '21 [5-9]
Sophia St. Romain '22 [1-4, 9]
Kaitlyn Hamilton '22 [5-8]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 10 5 9 5 2 6 9 6 3 55 Coby Flannery '21 [1-9]
Alexandra Horton '20 [1-4, 9]
Sara Lemba '21 [5-8]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 8 8 4 7 6 7 5 5 7 57 David Dubovy '22 [1-9]
Ashlyn Cowgill '19 [1-4]
Gwen Howland '19 [5-9]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 5 6 6 8 8 9 7 7 DNF 68 Gabriel Vianna '21
Eva Gonzalez '22
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 7 10 10 9 7 3 8 8 6 68 Liz Cloninger '22
No Show
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 9 7 5 6 9 10 10 10 8 74 Zuzanna Barska '22 [1-8]
Stevan Weiss '22 [9]
Stevan Weiss '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Ryan Ince '21 [5-6, 9]
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School JV 6 9 8 10 10 8 6 9 9 75 Ethan Ghozali '20 [1-9]
Niah Ford '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Inderia Mosley '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Caitlyn Pagano '22 [9]
Robinson High School Robinson High School Knights DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 108 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School JV303030303030303030
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons363636363636363636
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves333333333333333333
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School JV Black292929292929292929
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders 1313131313131313131
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders 2323232323232323232
Robinson High SchoolRobinson High School Knights282828282828282828
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School JV343434343434343434
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School JV1262626262626262626
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School JV272727272727272727
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS353535353535353535

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School JV303030303030303030
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons363636363636363636
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves333333333333333333
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School JV Black292929292929292929
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders 1313131313131313131
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders 2323232323232323232
Robinson High SchoolRobinson High School Knights282828282828282828
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School JV343434343434343434
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School JV1262626262626262626
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School JV272727272727272727
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS353535353535353535
School / Team SkipperCrew
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Kyle Funderburk '20 [1-9] Cassie Urbenz '19 [1-2, 5-9]
Caitlyn Pagano '22 [3-4]
JV Ethan Ghozali '20 [1-9] Niah Ford '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Inderia Mosley '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Caitlyn Pagano '22 [9]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Garrett Brooks '22 Noelle Dennis '22
JV Black Sean Toro '19 Spencer Brooks '20
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Griffin Barron '21 Cesar Yudin '20
Falcons Coby Flannery '21 [1-9] Alexandra Horton '20 [1-4, 9]
Sara Lemba '21 [5-8]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy No Show Jack Donovan '20
ThunderWolves Liz Cloninger '22 No Show
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jacob Wolfe '21 Lucas Vianna '21
Raiders 1 Gabriel Vianna '21 Eva Gonzalez '22
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Liam De Araujo '21 Felipe Clavijo '21
Raiders 2 David Dubovy '22 [1-9] Ashlyn Cowgill '19 [1-4]
Gwen Howland '19 [5-9]
Robinson High School Robinson High School Reid Nelson '23 Nick Joyner '22
Knights No Show No Show
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Luke King '21 Kailin Foster '20
JV1 Thommi Gritt '22 Ashton Graber '22
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heidi Hicks '21 Zuri Patel '20
JV Ethan Danielson '22 [1-6]
Guthrie Braun '22 [7-9]		 Thomas Cura '21 [1-6]
South Fork High School South Fork High School Kenan Walsh '20 [1-9] Ryan Ince '21 [1-4]
Siena Pollis '22 [5-9]
SF BULLDOGS Zuzanna Barska '22 [1-8]
Stevan Weiss '22 [9]		 Stevan Weiss '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Ryan Ince '21 [5-6, 9]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 [1-9] Michael Morley '22 [1-8]
Daniel Neville '21 [9]
JV Kaitlyn Hamilton '22 [1-4]
Garrett Dixon '21 [5-9]		 Sophia St. Romain '22 [1-4, 9]
Kaitlyn Hamilton '22 [5-8]

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1027.2 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From NW (325°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1027.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Holland Park, Hollywood, Florida: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Holland Park, Hollywood, Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Holland Park, Hollywood, Florida: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →